What if UKIP has managed to win the Eastleigh By-Election? Or the Malaise goes on and on.
@moth
David Cameron (Conservative – Liberal Democrat Coalition): 2010 – 2015
No one expected UKIP to win the Eastleigh by-election, and in fact they wouldn’t have without two singular occurrences. Firstly the Conservatives announced that they would not be contesting the election. Initially they claimed that it was because the party had little chance of success in Eastleigh, but it was later discovered that pressure had been applied by CCHQ, who had decided to give the Lib Dems a clear run in the interest of Coalition harmony. Secondly and more seriously, a mere week before polling day, a civil suit for indecent assault was filed against the beleaguered Lib Dem MP for Portsmouth South, Mike Hancock. After trying to bluster through it, in his usual way, Hancock had the whip removed pending a formal investigation, causing the Lib Dem’s numbers to tank.
Consequently, when the nation woke on the first of March, it discovered it had it’s first UKIP MP, with Diane James having secured a 500 vote majority.
Clegg resigned shortly after the defeat, and was replaced by Vince Cable, who agreed to continue the coalition – though he also promised to be a lot tougher with Cameron, than his predecessor had been, supposedly saying at their first meeting, “I’m not interested in a Rose Garden". He was succeeded at Business, Innovation and Skills by Michael Gove, while Nick Clegg took over the Department of Education.
Ed Miliband (Labour Minority with SNP and Lib Dem Confidence and Supply): 2015 – 2016
Several things happened in quick succession following the Eastleigh victory. Firstly Nigel Farage found himself called before the UKIP NEC and ousted in favour of Mrs James on the simple grounds that UKIP wanted a winner running the show. Shortly after that several high profile Eurosecptic MP’s including Douglas Carswell, Mark Reckless, Liam Fox, Theresa Villers, Nadine Dorries, Bill Cash and Philip Davies,defected though only Carswell decides to stand in a by-election. Money and associations began to flow towards UKIP as it became clear that this was a party that could win.
By the time the 2015 election came around, the Tories were in trouble. UKIP and Labour had both increased their vote and councillor count in the 2014 local election, while the Lib Dems had held steady, partly due to Vince Cable establishing clear blue water between the Coalition partners, with an increasing number of rebellions from Lib Dems in parliament. The general election itself had been brutal. Cameron even agreed to another debate in an effort to regain the polling lead that was slipping away from him every day. Unfortunately for him, Diane James – appearing to all and sundry like the country’s headmistress – had run rings around him every time he tried to bring up his policy successes, pointing out he could have done so much more if not for the Lib Dems, and arguing that if the country wanted a real Conservative government, they knew who to vote for. Unable to even attack Lib Dem policies, on the grounds he had voted for them, Cameron was a sitting duck.
But Miliband was still Miliband. The attacks by the right wing press had worked, and while the Tory vote had splintered thank to a stronger UKIP, it was clear that the public were still not all that enamoured with the Labour leader. He managed to secure the largest number of seats – just – and just as the Sun had feared formed a confidence and supply deal with Salmond and Cable – the Lib Dems having survived being slaughtered thanks to the Conservatives and UKIP splitting the right wing vote – in exchange for increased powers to the Scottish parliament, and a Speakers conference on country wide devolution.
Ed Miliband (Labour Majority): 2016 – 2020
A year after the 2015 election, and with the economy starting to look up, Prime Minister Miliband called another election in order to shore up his position. A combination of Miliband coming into his own as Prime Minister (with an independent social media campaign emphasising his positive qualities) and the Conservatives under Boris Johnson, - who had resigned as Mayor after being re-elected to Parliament in 2015 – tearing themselves to pieces as they tried to out UKIP, UKIP, Miliband was able to claim a small majority of twenty seats and return to the business of government.
Despite no longer having to answer to the Lib Dems or the SNP, Miliband stuck by his promises. He increased powers to both the Welsh Assembly and the Scottish Parliament, as well as putting in place plans for regional devolution, under elected Governors – the press raised some objections about the idea of using such an American term, but Miliband was quick to point out, that every other possible title, sounded stupid. Unless of course people really wanted to vote for a Theign. David Lammy was dispatched to retake City Hall from the Tories, becoming London’s first black mayor.
Taking on the energy companies and the construction companies, Miliband also made plans to build 100,000 new homes by 2025. All in all, Miliband was a competent and efficient, if not especially beloved Prime Minister. How many of the success of his tenure can be put down to the fact that he had no real Opposition, is for history to decide.
Miliband stepped down in 2020, after ten years as leader and five a Prime Minister to give his successor time to bed in before the next election.
Dan Jarvis (Labour Majority): 2020 – 2021
A member of the “Yorkshire Mafia” that was said to surround Miliband – which included Chancellor Ed Balls and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, - the Foreign Secretary Dan Jarvis was the winner of the 2020 Labour leadership contest. While on paper, his good looks, apparent charm and military record made him a perfect choice, it quickly became clear that while Jarvis was a good Foreign Secretary, and perfectly capable of looking good on camera, he didn’t really have any ideas of his own. In short, while he could walk the walk, he couldn’t talk the talk. This became clear in his first major interview after becoming PM, when after being asked an unplanned question about what policies of his predecessor he hadn’t liked he went “Umm” for a whole minute, before checking notes on his phone and restating his governments housing policy.
Jarvis spent his year in office tidying up the last of the Miliband Project but didn’t make any fundamental changes. It became increasingly clear that he was simply running out the clock, and the only real question was how big the Tory majority would be.
Rory Stewart (Conservative Majority): 2021 -????
The answer was big enough. Previously Shadow Defence Secretary under Michael Gove, Stewart had couped him shortly after Jarvis’ election. A solider, governor of an Iraqi province, writer, and lecturer, Stewart was referred to in the press as “The Tories answer to Dan Jarvis”, the main difference of course was Stewart could both walk the walk and talk the talk. With Labour exhausted and, UKIP engaged in a civil war between the Eurosceptic elements represented by leader Theresa Villiers and the more Libertarian aspects represented by Douglas Carswell, Stewart was able to net the Conservatives their first majority since John Major.
So far, he has not been able to do much, but what he has done has been impressive. Stewart has embraced Miliband’s devolution policy seeing it as a chance to take authority away from the Westminster and restore it to the people who know what their regions need the most, something that will proper in his border region seat. With the collapse of ISIS, the Prime Minister has also started to make noises about what the rebuilding of the Middle East could involve, bringing his own experience of the region to bear
However troubled times may be ahead. With the EU making noises about an ever-closer union, it may fall to the Stewart, a committed supporter of the EU, to finally answer the question of what the UK’s and the EU’s joint future looks like. He will also have to watch his right flank, as UKIP – now lead by Dan Hannan – are once again seeing their popularity rise, slowly but surely.