The World in 1880
Great Powers
- Third French Republic [1] – President Napoléon-Jérôme Bonaparte, Prince of Montfort (Interim/Bonapartist) | Premier Jules Grévy (Moderate Republican)
- United Kingdom [2] – Queen Victoria | Prime Minister William E. Gladstone (Liberal)
- Russian Empire [3] – Tsar Alexander II | Chairmen of the committee of Ministers Mikhail Loris-Melikov
- Kingdom of Spain [4] – King Alfonso XII | President of the Council of Ministers Antonio Cánovas del Castillo
- Austria-Hungary [5] – Emperor Franz Joseph I | Ministers-President Prince Adolf von Auersperg (Independent)
- North German Confederation [6] – Bundespräsidium Wilhelm I | Federal Chancellor Otto von Bismarck (Independent)
- United States of America [7] – President William Rosecrans (Union) | Vice President David Davis (Union)
- Confederate States of America [8] – President James Longstreet (Whig) | Vice President John S. Mosby (Whig)
- Kingdom of Italy [9] – King Umberto I | Prime Minister Agostino Depretis (Historical Left)
- Empire of Japan [10] – Emperor Meiji | Daijō-daijin Sanjō Sanetomi (Independent)
[1] The Second French Empire is broken. The Young Napoleon’s pride and folly has led the Empire to calamity, and now he like thousands more of his generation lay dead in the fields of Lorraine and the banks of the Meuse and Prussian armies hold Paris by the throat. The provisional government has declared a new Republic and government of national defence formed from Frenchmen of all talents – the Prince of Montfort has taken control of the Senate-in-Exile. He, and those around him, know that the war is lost, but the honour of France is not. If they can break the siege of Paris, then perhaps they might force Bismarck to the table for an honourable armistice.
[2] Britain rules the waves. Queen Victoria rules the largest Empire the world has ever seen and is the envy of the other great powers – alone or united, they cannot match her. Yet the world is changing, and Pax Britannica is not as sturdy as it once appeared. The inconclusive Crimean War and the early setbacks of the Zulu War have proved the inadequacies of the British Army as military force, and the American Civil War and Fall of Paris show that even the other Great Powers are not as invincible as they appear. What’s more, closer to home the Irish Question is rearing its ugly head again. Fortunately, Britain has men of great calibre at the helm and between the pillars of Gladstone and Disraeli, the Empire on which the Sun never sets is reforming and reviving.
[3] Russia remains the great mystery of the world, simultaneously fragile and redoubtable, always contradictory. Tsar Alexander II’s reforms continue and much has changed in Russia, yet the political conflicts and violence continue with the fallout of his Emancipation of the Serfs. Russia continues its aggressive expansion into Central Asia but has not engaged in an all-out war since the 1850s and makes a point of remaining neutral between those powers that do. Most Russians have accepted that Alexander II is in the twilight of his years and begin looking to his son for the future. Tsesarevich Nicholas Alexandrovich is considered brilliant, but has made few public remarks regarding the government, despite the urgings of his younger brother, Sasha.
[4] There are two sick men in Europe, and Spain is the lesser of them. In truth, Spanish decline has become more and more acute since the fall of Napoleon I, but recent decades have hammered the facts home. A revolution in 1868 brought about a short-lived Republic, and another war with the Carlist claimants to the throne – the final blow for Spanish pride came a year later. After negotiations with the Confederate States of America over the sale of Cuba broke down, the expansionist Hampton government declared war and while the mainland was still burning Spain was now forced to fight a war across the Atlantic. Humiliated by the CSA, Spain is a broken country and still bitterly divided – its only hope is, having back the Prussians so thoroughly through their war with France, Bismarck’s soldiers may march on to restore order on the other side of the Pyrenees: it’s a pipe dream at best.
[5] After a rocky middle of the century, the Dual Monarchy has settled down and is now one of the most peaceful corners of Europe. Though such a diverse, multi-ethnic body will always have its troubles, Austria-Hungary appears to have gotten over its teething problems with its industry growing larger and even managing to expand into Bosnia as the Turks begin to withdraw from the Balkans. The latest agreement with the old Prussian rivals also bodes well for Austria, free from looking over its shoulder at the present at least – nevertheless the Dual Monarchy should remain suspicious of her new ally if it intends on expanding further into the Balkans given Bismarck’s opinion on the worth of his grenadiers.
[6] Is it a continuation of Prussia by other means? Or is it a genuine manifestation of a German nation? Whichever is fact, what cannot be denied is the triumph of the North German armies over the armies of Napoleon IV. The emperor’s death at the catastrophe of Sedan will stand forever as key moment in the histories of both nations. However, with the Empire at an end and Paris ringed in by Prussian steel, the future now seems uncertain. Will Bismarck and Wilhelm carry on till they break the spirit of France itself, or can they afford to be magnanimous in their Victory?
[7] After the War of Southern Secession, the United States suffered a severe crisis of confidence and leadership. The lack of leadership from President McClellan both during and after the war led to severe unrest in major cities. New York held several insurrections against the Federal government during the war and afterwards and the Republican Party collapsed, followed shortly by Democratic Party. America has entered a period of introspection, although the treaty with Richmond was not as bad as it could have been, the loss of half of the nation is a heavy blow and the future of the Union remains in doubt. The only thing keeping the economy from spiralling into the gutter is the gold rushes in California, Montana, and Dakota Territory, while the politics vacillates between all kinds of radicals.
[8] The spoils of victory are not all what the CSA thought they would be. Though independent, the Confederacy had to concede her claims to Missouri, and Kentucky, as well as the partition of Virginia. With the natural avenue of expansion now cut off, the new nation found itself in trouble – not least as the economy failed to recover as Europeans turned to new cotton sources in Egypt and India. The economic malaise of the late 1860’s suddenly had the South clutching at straws to save face in the absence of prosperity – President Wade Hampton seized the opportunity to seize Cuba from Spain and began lobbying to reopen the Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade, further alienating it from Europe. The change of government has brought a change in policy fortunately, and CSA has begun to take a more moderate approach, even hoping for rapprochement with Washington, as well as London and Paris.
[9] Though united, Italy is far from peaceful – regional tensions remain high, and despite a liberal outlook and policy, the government largely rules by diktat, corruption, and coercion of the political process. The new king is a reactionary, with ambitions of empire, many expect that he will begin to urge a harder line with his internal opposition in order to facilitate expansion into Africa. Whether or not the King will have his way or not remains of doubt, and the political centre seems to be rallying around Agostino Depretis to deal with the Kingdom’s ongoing issues, though this could just as easily prove to be the same lip service that was given in the preceding decades.
[10] Japan is going through extraordinary changes, since opening up to the West there has been a rush to modernize and centralize. The violence has begun to subside and the Emperor Meiji has restored the power and authority of his position. Fast industrializing and militarizing, Japan may soon out pace Qing China as the powerhouse of the far east.
The World in 1910 [1]
La Grande Concorde [2]
- Third French Republic – President Jules Cambon (Democratic Alliance) | Prime Minister Maurice Barrès (Republican Federation, leading Coalition)
- Austria-Hungary – Emperor Franz Joseph I | Prime Minister Prince Louis of Liechtenstein (Christian Social Union)
- Ottoman Empire – Sultan Mehmed V | Grand Vizier Mahmud Shevket (Independent)
- Kingdom of Italy – King Umberto I | Prime Minister General Bava Beccaris (Independent)
League of the Four Emperors [3]
- German Empire – Kaiser Wilhelm II | Chancellor Hermann von Hatzfeldt (Freikonservative Partei, leading Coalition)
- United Kingdom – Kind Edward VIII | Prime Minister Austen Chamberlain (Unionist)
- Russian Empire – Tsar Nicholas III | Prime Minister Sergey Sazonov (Constitutional Party)
- Japanese Empire – Emperor Taishō | Prime Minister Yukio Ozaki (Rikken Dōshikai)
Neutral Powers
- United States of America [4] – President Theodore Roosevelt (Populist Party) | Vice President John Burke (Populist Party)
- Republic of China [5] – President Yuan Shikai | Cabinet Premier Duan Qirui
- Confederate States of America [6] – President Benjamin Tillman (Democratic Party) | Vice President John Sharp Williams (Democratic Party)
- Spain – King Alfonso XIII | Generalissimo Guillermo Pintos [7]
[1] Since the Battle of Waterloo, the Great Powers of Europe had sought to maintain the balance of power via the Concert of Europe, gradually however this system declined and by the start of the 20th Century it was divided between blocs, groups of nations each mutually bound by treaty obligations to the defence of one another in the event of war.
[2] La Grande Concorde was the French led bloc developed by the Third Republic in the years after the defeat of 1880. Its origins were a defensive pact signed by President Boulanger and the Emperor Franz Joseph in 1892 out of fear of the German Empire and Austria’s frustration by German and Russian attempts to undermine its freedom of action in the Balkans. Contrary to expectations, since the death of Boulanger and the lapsing of his dictatorial government, Revanchist rhetoric did not disappear from the French body politic, if anything it has only intensified. France no longer sees the Concorde as a purely defensive pact, but the French military see it as the mechanism by which they will begin their great patriotic struggle with the Germans – with the instability of the Balkans, French war planners fully expect the next crisis in the Balkans that entangle the Austrians, France will back Vienna with every assurance over their actions.
Although nothing has been made public, Austria-Hungary certainly appreciates this new encouragement from her ally as frustration grows in Vienna as the empire’s failure to exploit the crises since the Ottomans have withdrawn due to Russia’s protection, particularly of Serbia. Bosnia had been occupied, but official annexation had been blocked during the Bosnia Crisis (where it became obvious to the strength of the new relationship between London and Petrograd) and further in roads into the Balkans were likewise frustrated. Key personalities close the throne are rapidly losing patience with the being kept from expanding its sphere of influence – though individual governments, like Bulgaria and Greece seem amenable to Vienna, Serbia remain resolute which only redoubles tensions between Austria and her protector.
Conversely, the Ottomans do not see the Concorde to secure the expansion of its influence, but to defend what influence remains to it. The Ottoman Empire has been in decline for the past century, and its eviction from mainland Europe has made it more apparent, with the latter decade of the 19th Century leaving the Sublime Porte grasping for an ally among the Great Powers: Russia and the Turks would never be reconciled; with the acquisition of the Suez Canal, Cyprus and permanent position in Egypt, Britain realised she had more to gain by the undermining the Turks in Arabia and Palestine; Germany seemed a likely candidate, given its special interests in Anatolia and Mesopotamia, however pressure from the Tsar forced them to hold back. Into the void stepped France, Constantinople’s on-again/off-again ally since the 1500s, and promptly began funding an expansion of the Orient Express onward from Constantinople to Mosul and Damascus, in exchange for preferential treatment in the Levant – cooperation that turned in mutual defensive agreement should war breakout in the Mediterranean.
At the literal centre of the alliance stands its most reticent member. Politics in Italy has been unstable for decades, and its place La Concorde is divisive across political lines. King Umberto I signed it during the 1890s with President Boulanger, and at the time it remained largely uncontroversial, however after the attempt on Umberto’s life in 1900 the already bellicose atmosphere of 1890s was followed by further crackdowns and authoritarian Prime Minister Crispi’s succession by General Bava Beccaris. The new regime of the strongmen is not popular with the rubber stamp Chamber of Deputies and it’s pro-French, pro-Austrian, imperialist foreign policy leaves a bitter taste in their mouth. The hope of Italian Parliamentarians lay with the more liberal Prince of Naples now that Umberto’s health has begun to fail – a change of monarch may bring a change of policy…
[3] The so-called “League of the Four Emperors” is a much looser arrangement than La Grande Concorde, but it began very much as a family affair, one who’s great tragedy appears to be that the Fathers are not the Sons. Upon the accession to the throne of Fredrich III (1888) and Edward VII (1898), the two brothers-in-law had the ambition to bring both Germany and Britain into an alliance, despite the reticence of both governments – Britain preferred isolation, and Bismarck was suspicious of British ambition. Changes in government after the dismissal of the Iron Chancellor in 1895 and the ascension of the Joseph Chamberlain’s government in 1900 opened negotiations, leading to an agreement in 1902. The Anglo-German Pact satisfied both parties in clearing up spheres of influence in Africa and Oceanian, though death of Fredrich in 1905 and Edward VII in 1907 seems to take the shine off the alliance now that the brotherly love has been replaced by the cooler relationship between the cousins: cavalier and effeminate Edward VIII*; and the erratic, stern Wilhelm II.
Ironically, both nations have come to have a much closer to the Russian bear. The treaty between Russia and Germany is one of the longest standings given the current climate, and the last legacy still standing of the Iron Chancellor. Its renewal is of constant anxiety for the German’s, for if France and Russia were to ally, Germany would be surrounded and boxed in from the South, East and West. Kaiser Wilhelm has long been in awe of the prestige and grandeur of Tsar Nicholas III**, happily cultivating a close relationship with him, hoping to see another “strong man” on the map of Europe. This is not entirely to the disappointment of the British either (whose 1906 Treaty is still fresh and more out of necessity to secure British India) and would like to see the young Tsar get a hold on what is (however exclusive, draconian, and corrupt) young, constitutional monarchy in Russia. The hopes of Britain are seemingly not in vain, especially in the Far East.
Japan is more of a League member by proxy. Its only alliance obligation is with the British, signed in 1903 as the power of international co-operation and value of the Japanese position in Asia was proven in the 1899-1902 Boxer War (where the Eight-Nation Alliance defeated Chinese extremists hoping to evict foreign legations from China). A mutually beneficial agreement, Britain can concentrate more of its Fleet in the Mediterranean and Atlantic, as well as forcing Russia to come to the table over Korea and Manchuria – which in 1912 both sides divided into mutual spheres – again, taking pressure off another front. Only the Kaiser and his belief in the “Yellow Peril” has umbridge with Japan, but, as the tiny concession Kiautschou Bay and two cruisers are the only manifestation of the Kaiserreich in East Asia, little can be done but accept the fact.
*= OTL Prince Albert Victor
** = OTL equivalent of Nicholas II, ITL son of Nicholas II (OTL Tsesarevich Nicholas Alexandrovich) and Princess Dagmar of Denmark
[4] Having become largely introspective since the Southern Secession, the United States is emerging into what many are calling the Gilded Age. The years after its defeat by the Confederacy, the Union was indited with industrial strife, corruption in politics and the civil service, failing reforms and ethnic conflict, a malaise that lasted until the 1890s when the Populist Party swept to power. William Jennings Bryan led a grassroots movement to end corruption, free trade and regulate the monopolies – a tenure that was hugely successful, giving stability to the markets and put cheap American industrial goods onto an already competitive world market. The economic boom of the 1890s suddenly had many heads turning in the international community and the Union dipped its toe back in international affairs when it dispatched troops under General A. MacArthur Jr. to fight in the Boxer rebellion. The intrigue with America only turned to obsession when Edward VII made his famous state visit in 1900, a trip he had made as Prince of Wales 1860 and was a true success – clearing up the awkward atmosphere from Britain’s early support of the Confederacy and brokering real friendship between Washington and London, who are grateful for a new counter to the counter to Richmond in the Atlantic and Caribbean.
[5] In 1910, over 2000 years of Imperial rule in China came to an end overnight. The long decay of the Qing Dynasty came to a head as the Boxer War came to an end, with the Imperial dynasty having been proved incapable of protecting China from foreign threats, now the domestic threats sprang up. An uprising from Guangzhou soon spread North, to Shanghai, Wuhan till finally revolutionaries stormed through the Imperial Palace. The revolutionaries in Beijing were not the Kuomintang, however, but soldiers of the Beiyang Army. Sun Yat-sen was hence forced to compromise, and China split North (Beiyang), South (Kuomintang) and West (Warlords with duplicitous loyalty to either), but nominally under the Presidency of General Yuan Shikai.
[6] While the United States has been defined by its lack of engagement with its neighbours, the Confederate States has been defined by nothing but engagement, much to the chagrin of the British. Since the Annexation of Cuba (1870) and Haiti (1889), the idea of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean being a Dixie Lake has been the great ambition of the Confederate State Department. There is not a single nation in Central or South America that does not feel the words of Richmond on at its ear, though in Colombia, Dominican Republic, Nicaragua, and Panama it’s accompanied by knife at the throat. Mexico’s Emperor Agustín II seems to be the only one to profit from Confederate foreign policy, as its arms and mercenary soldiers have become its main buttress against revolution; and France also benefits from the protection of Confederate troops in Panama as its canal is dug across the Isthmus to link two oceans.
Officially, Slavery ended in the Confederacy in 1887, but rather than outright abolition, instead the government has slowly repatriated individuals for the loss of their “property”, but these payments have been a long, slow process, and once freed, those former slaves are forced to remain in place on the former plantations – while those few lucky enough to escape work in the Cotton fields are driven into the new industrialised Hell of sugar mills and oil refineries.
[7] Alfonso XIII has a more conventional vision for Spain than his father had. After backing a military coup to overturn the Cortes and rule absolutely, he began to push his empire to engage more in Africa and seek imperial glory in Morocco now that its American possessions were long gone. This feat has only been accomplished since the Casablanca Crisis, where an attempt by Germany to move in was blocked by France and Spain, who consequently partitioned the region, linking the Spanish Rif and Spanish Sahara via the coast, while the inland was annexed into French North Africa. This seems to have given the Spanish King ideas above his abilities, especially when it comes to engaging with the Kaiser. Expeditions and patrols from Spanish Guinea have repeatedly entered Kamerun, going so far as to occupy villages closest to the territorial boundaries. Although Paris gladly smiles benignly at this behaviour, the Royal Court in Madrid is sorely mistake if they expect French aid in an African colonial struggle.
