Alternate History General Discussion

[Space Oddity]

wrestling from a real sport to athletic performance was media-driven as much as anything.

Professional exhibition wrestling wound up fixed almost immediately, because an actual wrestling match is exceptionally long if it hits fifteen minutes, and most are considerably shorter, meaning it takes a prohibitively large number of them to actually fill a playbill.

 

[Coiler]

That's intimidating, and requires a much deeper grounding in economic theory and history than most general students of history will have.

It's also arguably unecessary for a story where instead of going "here's what would happen", the goal is to go "this happened." I'll put it this way: Kim Stanley Robinson did not do a deep epidemiological study for his Europe-crushing plot disease that set up Rice and Salt, and he didn't need to. Even Kirov, which has (too) many battles simmed in depth, also has a lot of acknowledged plot-contrived "a wizard time traveler did it" moments.

 

[Christian]

I do find that, in alternate history, there tends to be an overly simplistic, downright arrogant assumption of, “Oh, if he did what I would’ve done, which is the opposite of what he did, things would have been so much better.”

 

[Elektronaut]

I do find that, in alternate history, there tends to be an overly simplistic, downright arrogant assumption of, “Oh, if he did what I would’ve done, which is the opposite of what he did, things would have been so much better.”

It's a thing with some, but some people being unable to seperate out their personal beliefs/desires/prejudices from their analysis is something which bedevils other fields, fandoms, and life in general.

 

[Venocara]

The other big thing for the British-owned car industry, and what amplified and magnified every other piece of bad management, bad politics, bad luck, and bad design, was just that the domestic market was (especially after competition from Ford and GM's branches) too small. At the most generous interpretation it meant it had far less margin for error. At the worst, you could semi-reasonably argue it was doomed from the start.

I’m not really inclined to believe this. After all, West Germany’s domestic market was only slightly bigger, Italy and France’s were roughly the same size and South Korea’s was smaller, and they still all had more success in the car industry, even with the latter three’s economic and political troubles. I’m confident that with a POD in 1950, 1970 or even as late as 1980 a strong British car industry can be built/salvaged, but other than a lot of luck that wasn’t present in OTL I’m not exactly sure as to how this can be achieved.

 

[Coiler]

I’m confident that with a POD in 1950, 1970 or even as late as 1980 a strong British car industry can be built/salvaged, but other than a lot of luck that wasn’t present in OTL I’m not exactly sure as to how this can be achieved.

I think it can with an early POD (hence why I said "semi"-reasonably for the pessimistic deterministic model), but that it'll be an uphill battle. From what I've read, it wasn't just protectionism in France and Germany but also a far greater cultural willingness to stick with local brands that gave their native cars more market share.

 

[Venocara]

From what I've read, it wasn't just protectionism in France and Germany but also a far greater cultural willingness to stick with local brands that gave their native cars more market share.

So a stronger British identity > stronger British car industry? Honestly, this doesn’t sound too implausible to me, but there’s still the problem of the best British-made cars being American, and I’m not sure what can be done about that.

Tangentially, I know this is very far back but would a British takeover of Volkswagen in 1945 have that much of an effect in the long run?

 

[SpanishSpy]

 

[Neal]

There should be a plausible How Governments Failanthology on a plausible scenario where an uncolonized OTL country becomes colonized due to government failure.

the utter catastrophe that was Taiping China “winning” can be an entry

 

[Coiler]

There should be a plausible How Governments Failanthology on a plausible scenario where an uncolonized OTL country becomes colonized due to government failure.

I was also thinking Ethiopia getting overrun due to worse leadership.

 

[Gary Oswald]

There should be a plausible How Governments Failanthology on a plausible scenario where an uncolonized OTL country becomes colonized due to government failure.

the utter catastrophe that was Taiping China “winning” can be an entry

There's not many uncolonized OTL countries though.

Ethiopia, Thailand, Japan, China and that's about it outside Europe.

 

[Neal]

There's not many uncolonized OTL countries though.

Ethiopia, Thailand, Japan, China and that's about it outside Europe.

Iran, Turkey, Saudi, North Yemen and Afghanistan too

 

[SenatorChickpea]

Though that rather shows the problem with the definition- does it only count as colonised if you formally lose your independence? There's a fair amount of British and French 'protectorates' where that technically didn't happen.

If it's unequal treaties, then China, Iran, Turkey and Japan all had those- while at least three (arguably all four) were also simultaneously imperial powers.

Generally, though, countries slide into someone else's empire in the manner of Hemingway's bankruptcy- a little at a time, and then all at once.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Though that rather shows the problem with the definition- does it only count as colonised if you formally lose your independence? There's a fair amount of British and French 'protectorates' where that technically didn't happen.

If it's unequal treaties, then China, Iran, Turkey and Japan all had those- while at least three (arguably all four) were also simultaneously imperial powers.

Generally, though, countries slide into someone else's empire in the manner of Hemingway's bankruptcy- a little at a time, and then all at once.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protectorate says some sources do distinguish protectorates and protected states and that the latter do not lose their independence.

 

[Gary Oswald]

Iran, Turkey, Saudi, North Yemen and Afghanistan too

Fair, I stand by my general feeling that if I am looking for short stories as an editor and I say 'I want a story about an Ah revolution' theres huge flexibility there in terms of potential subjects where as if I say 'I want a story about a non colonised country being colonised', theres much much less room for creativity.

I'm also unconvinced its that interesting a change. You're taking the exceptions and making it the rule.

 

[Delta Force]

I’m not really inclined to believe this. After all, West Germany’s domestic market was only slightly bigger, Italy and France’s were roughly the same size and South Korea’s was smaller, and they still all had more success in the car industry, even with the latter three’s economic and political troubles. I’m confident that with a POD in 1950, 1970 or even as late as 1980 a strong British car industry can be built/salvaged, but other than a lot of luck that wasn’t present in OTL I’m not exactly sure as to how this can be achieved.

The British car industry already has the intrinsic disadvantage of being one of the few right hand drive countries in the world. The only other right hand drive countries are in Africa, Asia, and Oceania. The United Kingdom also doesn't have a particularly large domestic market, being on par with right hand drive countries such as France and Italy. Almost every vehicle exported would have to be extensively redesigned for right hand drive. That is a major disadvantage for the lower end of the market, but it might have actually worked to help the higher end because there is a built in export focus. Many prominent British sports and luxury brands were and still are built around export sales, especially to North America. The United States has historically had certain regulatory quirks regarding emissions and safety that have posed challenges for brands with a primary focus on other markets, but the British car companies don't seem to have as much difficulty adopting to them (later model TVR vehicles being a notable exception).

Japan was able to succeed in both ends of the market despite being a right hand drive country because it has such a large domestic market and it is better positioned for sales to the other right hand drive markets. Whatever disadvantages there might be in redesigning for left hand drive can be somewhat offset by the economies of sale possible from sales of domestic and export right hand drive models that use the same mechanical components. Japan also has a more stable labor and business situation than the United Kingdom, especially during the decades in which the United Kingdom was having poor overall economic performance.

 

[Neal]

Even though the American Union was constructed so as to give France uncontested military and political supremacy in all of Middle America, the American Union's constituent states nonetheless retained enough autonomy to allow for state-funded industrialization programs.- Randy McDonald, Empires Earth

 

[Coiler]

Doing this in the general discussion thread even though this was posted in the "Least Favorite" because well, I don't think it's axe-grinding.

Isn't this just another form of Sturgeon's Law

I have a term I've coined called the "Sturgeon Bar", which goes basically "yes, the bulk of fiction will be subpar, but the meaning of "subpar" varies a lot by genre." It's kind of like how a one-season-wonder Premier League team that gets quickly and unsurprisingly relegated is "bad" by the standards of the top flight, but is still objectively one of the best soccer teams in the world. It's the 20th-best team there is, but it just happens to be up against the other nineteen. Whereas a pickup amateur club where no one can even control the ball is something quite different.

Cheap thrillers, if one likes them (or other similar lowbrow fiction in other genres) have a pretty high, by their standards, Sturgeon Bar. If you're not expecting anything beyond mindless fun, and if you can tell they got the fundamentals right (which is pretty easy even by the cover/store page), you'll end up with a decent timewaster.

Whereas internet AH has an incredibly low Sturgeon Bar due to its lack of a conventional narrative. There's a difference between Marine Force One (a thriller that I've decided is the most single mediocre and middling piece of fiction that I've read) and a wikibox timeline no one really remembers.

Online AH is also hit by sample size because it is very small and niche. Instead of three good, 87 middling, and 10 memorably bad books, you'd be more likely to get one good, 18 "just people, dates, wikiboxes, and stock photos", and 1 memorably bad TLs.

 

[Gary Oswald]

Doing this in the general discussion thread even though this was posted in the "Least Favorite" because well, I don't think it's axe-grinding.



I have a term I've coined called the "Sturgeon Bar", which goes basically "yes, the bulk of fiction will be subpar, but the meaning of "subpar" varies a lot by genre." It's kind of like how a one-season-wonder Premier League team that gets quickly and unsurprisingly relegated is "bad" by the standards of the top flight, but is still objectively one of the best soccer teams in the world. It's the 20th-best team there is, but it just happens to be up against the other nineteen. Whereas a pickup amateur club where no one can even control the ball is something quite different.

Cheap thrillers, if one likes them (or other similar lowbrow fiction in other genres) have a pretty high, by their standards, Sturgeon Bar. If you're not expecting anything beyond mindless fun, and if you can tell they got the fundamentals right (which is pretty easy even by the cover/store page), you'll end up with a decent timewaster.

Whereas internet AH has an incredibly low Sturgeon Bar due to its lack of a conventional narrative. There's a difference between Marine Force One (a thriller that I've decided is the most single mediocre and middling piece of fiction that I've read) and a wikibox timeline no one really remembers.

Online AH is also hit by sample size because it is very small and niche. Instead of three good, 87 middling, and 10 memorably bad books, you'd be more likely to get one good, 18 "just people, dates, wikiboxes, and stock photos", and 1 memorably bad TLs.

I think this is a very astute analysis.

You should have used baseball as the sports metaphor though. The international nature of football, means the 20th best team in England is normally not in the top 50 teams in the world.

 

[Coiler]

You should have used baseball as the sports metaphor though. The international nature of football, means the 20th best team in England is normally not in the top 50 teams in the world.

Fair enough. My ideal sport for this would actually be basketball, where the gap between college and pro players is gigantic (the difference between AAA minors/Japan and MLB is present but considerably less so). Yes, the Minnesota Timberwolves are the 32nd-best team in the world-and the worst in the NBA.