What's the most plausible way to get a 1940 peace between Britain and Germany? And what would it look like?
The simplest solution is to have the UK defeated at Dunkirk or to feel, for some other reason, that continuing the war is a bad idea. This would probably mean Churchill not becoming PM, which might happen if the blame for Norway was placed on him instead of someone else. Halifax didn’t have Churchill’s nerve and might just come to terms with Germany, if the war looks to have stalemated.
I imagine Germany would want her conquests recognised, as well as the return of some of her former colonies in Africa. Italy might want a share of the spoils too, but it would be difficult for her to claim them without German support (which would mean continuing the war). The Free French would probably be disowned, or interned; at the very least, they wouldn’t be allowed to continue the war on their own. Vichy will remain the effective government of unoccupied France. (I imagine they’d at least try to rebuild their military.)
Germany looks like even more of a winner, so most of ‘free’ Europe will probably side with them (for fear of invasion if nothing else). Hitler won’t have the distraction of a war with the UK, so he can continue making preparations for war in the east (and slaughtering everyone he considers undesirables). I don’t think he’d quit while he was ahead. Barbarossa probably goes off earlier than OTL in this universe, which might let the Germans take Moscow. Might. It might also convince the Turks to join the grand crusade against communism too, making life even harder for the Russians. I’d bet the war will burn itself out in 1945, as neither side will be able to win a real victory.
Britain will probably go through a rough patch. The need to rebuild the army will take priority. So will dealing with the threat from Japan. British forces will grow stronger very quickly, allowing them to keep the Italians out of the Med and pressure the Turks to stay neutral; they might not be strong enough to deal with Japan (particularly if Hitler twists French and Dutch arms and convinces them to ‘allow’ the Japanese to ‘secure’ Indochina and the Dutch East Indies. The Japanese may, in this timeline, decide to stab Stalin in the back instead. This might not work too well. They might decide to just keep fighting in China instead.
Long-term, the British Empire is doomed. In this timeline, they may not realise it until it’s too late.
The US will continue to grow stronger too, but with less urgency as the war in Europe appears to be over and Japan seems contained by Britain. Lessons they learnt from OTL won’t be learnt here. If Japan strikes, and Germany declares war, history might go back on track. If she doesn’t, the US will still grow stronger, just at a slower pace.
What do you think?