AHC: Plaid Cymru surge

[RyanF]

What would it take for Plaid Cymru to be in a position to win a majority of seats in Wales at a Westminster election by 2018?

If they had kept the momentum from their Carmarthen by-election victory in 1967 and won further by elections in Caerphilly and Rhondda West during the same parliament would it be enough to set them on a path to be the largest party in Wales?

 

[Uhura's Mazda]

It seemed like they were going places in 1999, with the Euros and Assembly elections of that year, but that was probably to do with the novelty factor of the electoral system and the fact that their core issue had been dominating the conversation for a couple of years.

The problem with Plaid, as we're seeing now, is that it's an incoherent coalition between North Wales agrarians, South Wales socialists, people who hate the Socialists in Welsh Labour, and, most prominently, oddballs. And only the North Wales types are concentrated enough to flip seats on anything like a regular basis.

Now, the SNP had similar issues, but they had the luxury of a larger country where these internal tendencies had enough manpower to organise into official-looking factions, which makes it all look legitimate. They also had the benefit of people with charisma and talent, like Salmond, who Plaid have historically lacked.

 

[Elektronaut]

It seemed like they were going places in 1999, with the Euros and Assembly elections of that year, but that was probably to do with the novelty factor of the electoral system and the fact that their core issue had been dominating the conversation for a couple of years.

It was to do with Blair being a dick and trying to bork Rhodri Morgan. A protest vote.

 

[Uhura's Mazda]

It was to do with Blair being a dick and trying to bork Rhodri Morgan. A protest vote.

That too, of course.

 

[RyanF]

On the lack of charisma and talent, plenty of people like Salmond joined the SNP when the part were surging in the 1970s. If Plaid Cymru had a bit of momentum in the 1970s or 80s are there any Welsh politicians that might have joined them in their younger days instead of the Tories/Labour/Lib-Dems? I know Guto Bebb was in PC in his youth before switching to the Tories because he was a eurosceptic, but was there anyone else? Or anyone whose commitment to Welsh devolution might have led them to PC?

On the various conflicting groups that make up PC, could either a lack of movement on Welsh devolution or a very narrow loss of a referendum to establish one turn these various PC strands to a single goal of devolution; in the same way the SNP managed to see their membership explode following the independence referendum. If they can keep the issue something they all agree on and have one or two charismatic sorts could they have enough momentum to do very well at the next GE?

 

[Elektronaut]

The SNP of course has been an incoherent coalition, with the Ewings to the children of the '79 group like Salmond Sillars and MacAskill existing in the same party, so it is not like that represents a key bar on success.

Wales is just a very different country to Scotland and that represents a serious barrier to a nationalist breakthrough, notably it is a lot more Anglicised in all senses. (I think 1/3rd of people in Wales were born in England) It also has a very different nationalist tradition to Scotland which has historically being focused on kultur issues, principally the language.

 

[Turquoise Blue]

While others have covered the points where it would make a Plaid surge more difficult, I actually think that it could happen, even if it takes more pushing than a SNP one would be. For a start, the Valleys have a very strong Welsh identity.

[BTW, @Elektronaut, I would say the Scots are more "Anglicised" when it comes to language. ]

Anyway, it's not impossible in my opinion. You just need to do a few things.
1: Somehow have Welsh Labour oppose devolution. Maybe people like Neil Kinnock are firmly in charge?
2: That would be in the context of a strongly-fought referendum where tempers go high. The referendum must narrowly go "no".
3: Have Plaid successfully convince the Yes voters that they're the only hope for a Welsh Assembly.
4: Plaid goes up to 30% or so, which is a pretty reasonable benchmark. That's a surge.

It isn't 50% or anything like that, but it'll net them a fair amount of seats and catch people's eye as they see "PC GAIN" over and over.

The main obstacle, in my eyes, isn't really anything to do with "different traditions", "smaller countries", etcetera. It's Welsh Labour and their dominance that's the main obstacle. For a Plaid surge, you would need to bring down Welsh Labour down quite a fair bit.

 

[Alex Richards]

Perhaps throw in greater difficulties for Labour nationally as well?

 

[Elektronaut]

[BTW, @Elektronaut, I would say the Scots are more "Anglicised" when it comes to language. ]

Isn't that the point though?

Nationalism in Scotland is more encompassing because it's not been rooted in cultural revivalism like nationalism in Wales. Welsh nationalism has been very, very rooted in Welsh language issues. Which one of the early Plaid leaders was it who said that the language was more important than independence? That's basically the line Plaid has followed until recently. Its put nationalism in a box and made it very hard to transfer support for it over to the east and the Anglicised border areas. Its heartlands today are still Welsh-speaking west coast areas.

There's just a cap on how far Welsh nationalism can go because of all this. You can't say 'Becuz Scotland, therefore Wales' because they are two totally different countries.

 

[Turquoise Blue]

Isn't that the point though?

Nationalism in Scotland is more encompassing because it's not been rooted in cultural revivalism like nationalism in Wales. Welsh nationalism has been very, very rooted in Welsh language issues. Which one of the early Plaid leaders was it who said that the language was more important than independence? That's basically the line Plaid has followed until recently. Its put nationalism in a box and made it very hard to transfer support for it over to the east and the Anglicised border areas. Its heartlands today are still Welsh-speaking west coast areas.

There's just a cap on how far Welsh nationalism can go because of all this. You can't say 'Becuz Scotland, therefore Wales' because they are two totally different countries.

Oh, no doubt. Not even disagreeing with you at all on this.

I think that if the strong Welsh identity in the Valleys, stronger than other parts of Wales, can somehow be turned into something tangible, you have something there provided the right events happen. It isn't impossible. Just very difficult.

 

[Turquoise Blue]

Isn't that the point though?

Nationalism in Scotland is more encompassing because it's not been rooted in cultural revivalism like nationalism in Wales. Welsh nationalism has been very, very rooted in Welsh language issues. Which one of the early Plaid leaders was it who said that the language was more important than independence? That's basically the line Plaid has followed until recently. Its put nationalism in a box and made it very hard to transfer support for it over to the east and the Anglicised border areas. Its heartlands today are still Welsh-speaking west coast areas.

There's just a cap on how far Welsh nationalism can go because of all this. You can't say 'Becuz Scotland, therefore Wales' because they are two totally different countries.

And I think you're not looking at the fact that Welsh Labour is a very different creature to Scottish Labour. That's a major obstacle as well.

But, but why are we talking about how hard it is, when we could talk about possible ways it could happen?

 

[OwenM]

I think the strongest possibility, as has been hinted, is Lewis losing the language vs independence debate. But at that point, it's no longer really recognisably Plaid.

I know Guto Bebb was in PC in his youth before switching to the Tories because he was a eurosceptic, but was there anyone else?

Yes, it was definitely nothing to do with how he lost the vote at a selection meeting a week earlier and allegedly stormed out shouting and swearing.

 

[RyanF]

@The Red had mentioned to me once that both Plaid Cymru and the SNP were going in together on a data system at some point in the 00s, PC eventually thought it was too much money and left it but the SNP went ahead.

This is part of the reason for the SNPs better campaigning in the late 00s (amongst a plethora of other reasons including obviously Labour's woes); it might not get PC into position to sweep Wales at a General Election or form a government in the Senedd, but maybe enough to allow them to win more seats (perhaps the much prophesied Ynys Môn turning green) and keeping them in second place.