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Yugoslavia without WWII as we know it

J

Jackson Lennock

Well-known member
Let's say the Battle of France is a colossal flop for the Germans. It was a lot of rolling 6s OTL, and the prospect of a German invasion force with its shoestring thing supply chains getting cut off, surrounded, and so forth isn't hard to imagine. With a couple million troops captured, supplies taken, and the French and British about to push into the Rhineland, Hitler gets couped and Germany collapses into civil war, Stalin decides its a good time to give Poland a border on the Oder, and the coup'ing generals sue for peace in the west.

Anyways - what happens to Yugoslavia? The Country had effectively been split into three regions (Slovenia, Croatia, and Serbia) with the creation of the Banovina of Croatia in 1939. Would the Croats eventually go all in and declare independence? If that happens, would the country be carved up like during WWII, or would Yugoslavia's neighbors have to be better behaved regarding the tumult next door?
 
It's not impossible that Mussolini, realising Hitler is a busted flush but that all other great powers are momentarily distracted, decides to seize the moment and invade Yugoslavia while the above is playing out. A protracted war for supremacy in the Balkans could be dangerous but Yugoslavia is a house of cards, Italy only need kick in the door.
 
The Red said:
It's not impossible that Mussolini, realising Hitler is a busted flush but that all other great powers are momentarily distracted, decides to seize the moment and invade Yugoslavia while the above is playing out. A protracted war for supremacy in the Balkans could be dangerous but Yugoslavia is a house of cards, Italy only need kick in the door.
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And how well would that go? Italy wasn't exactly much good vs Greece, and whilst there's a lot more frontage to hand it's still the same Italian armed forces as OTL. Would he have any chance - or desire - of getting Hungary or Bulgaria onside?
 
TheIO said:
And how well would that go? Italy wasn't exactly much good vs Greece, and whilst there's a lot more frontage to hand it's still the same Italian armed forces as OTL. Would he have any chance - or desire - of getting Hungary or Bulgaria onside?
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It's difficult to say, Greece in many ways was a tougher nut to crack than Yugoslavia. The former went to war in an outpouring of patriotic fervour whilst the latter struggled to mobilise in similar circumstances IOTL and the Italians were already training Croat insurgents. The Dalmatian coast would be difficult to defend against an amphibious assault. Then again it wouldn't be uncharacteristic of Mussolini to insist on an all out invasion on several fronts and ending up in a quagmire. Undoubtedly the Italians would try and get the Hungarians and Bulgarians on side, doing so would be a win-win but it's doubtful either would have unless Yugoslavia was already in a state of collapse.
 
The Red said:
A protracted war for supremacy in the Balkans could be dangerous but Yugoslavia is a house of cards, Italy only need kick in the door.
Click to expand...
TheIO said:
And how well would that go? Italy wasn't exactly much good vs Greece, and whilst there's a lot more frontage to hand it's still the same Italian armed forces as OTL. Would he have any chance - or desire - of getting Hungary or Bulgaria onside?
Click to expand...

The Yugoslavians have the terrain in their favour, and one the strongest air forces in the Balkans (Hurricanes and Bf109s) so I can easily envisage Benito's forces getting their asses handed to them.

Wartime Alt-Yugoslavia will still be home to some of the worst unpunished war crimes in Europe.
 
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Arthur_Phuxache said:
The Yugoslavians have the terrain in their favour, and one the strongest air forces in the Balkans (Hurricanes and Bf109s) so I can easily envisage Benito's forces getting their asses handed to them.

Wartime Alt-Yugoslavia will still be home to some of the worst unpunished war crimes in Europe.
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When were those Hurricanes and Bf109s sold to Yugoslavia? Bit unclear from what I can tell whether they'd have those planes if Mussolini's invading in the summer of 1940.
 
TheIO said:
When were those Hurricanes and Bf109s sold to Yugoslavia? Bit unclear from what I can tell whether they'd have those planes if Mussolini's invading in the summer of 1940.
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The Hurricanes arrived between 1938 & 1940 AIUI.

The Messerschmitts started arriving in August 1939, and prior to the German-led Axis invasion of Yugoslavia in April 1941, 64–65 of the original 73 Bf 109E-3s were serviceable.
 
I recall reading elsewhere that the Italians were egging on the Croats to declare independence. I assume that this Balkan War would be triggered by a Croatian declaration of Independence, followed by Italian recognition thereof. Italy proceeds to intervene on the ostensible justification that it is supporting Croatia and defending Yugoslavia's Albanian, Italian, and Aromanian minorities.

From there, other revisionist powers such as the Hungarians and Bulgarians could just jump in. Meanwhile Romania and Greece were aligned with Yugoslavia as fellow anti-revisionist states.
 
The Red said:
and the Italians were already training Croat insurgents.
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The truest mark of Belgrade's political genius OTL is that by 1940 Croat nationalists hated the Serbs so much that they would rather work with the Italians, who were already oppressing the Croats of Istria and Rijeka, and who openly planned to seize and Italianize Dalmatia once Yugoslavia faltered.
A triumph of Serbian statecraft.
 
TheIO said:
And how well would that go? Italy wasn't exactly much good vs Greece, and whilst there's a lot more frontage to hand it's still the same Italian armed forces as OTL. Would he have any chance - or desire - of getting Hungary or Bulgaria onside?
Click to expand...
The Red said:
It's difficult to say, Greece in many ways was a tougher nut to crack than Yugoslavia. The former went to war in an outpouring of patriotic fervour whilst the latter struggled to mobilise in similar circumstances IOTL and the Italians were already training Croat insurgents. The Dalmatian coast would be difficult to defend against an amphibious assault. Then again it wouldn't be uncharacteristic of Mussolini to insist on an all out invasion on several fronts and ending up in a quagmire. Undoubtedly the Italians would try and get the Hungarians and Bulgarians on side, doing so would be a win-win but it's doubtful either would have unless Yugoslavia was already in a state of collapse.
Click to expand...

Hungary was certainly revisionist and aggressive about it, but Bulgaria OTL required more cajoling into war.

The conflict could result with an Italian slice of Dalmatia, an expanded Albania, an independent Croatia, and rump Yugoslavia just being the Kingdom of Serbia. The big question marks are Slovenia and Bosnia.
 
Jackson Lennock said:
Hungary was certainly revisionist and aggressive about it, but Bulgaria OTL required more cajoling into war.

The conflict could result with an Italian slice of Dalmatia, an expanded Albania, an independent Croatia, and rump Yugoslavia just being the Kingdom of Serbia. The big question marks are Slovenia and Bosnia.
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OTL had Slovenia get divvied up between Germany, Italy, and Hungary - without German involvement I'd presume Croatia gets a chunk and Italy a bit more.

Bosnia, meanwhile, was handed wholly to Croatia - could see this Serbia retaining the Serbian-populated eastern bits.

Assuming, of course, that Yugoslavia loses (which is still pretty probable). What would happen to the Yugoslav monarchy in this scenario?
 
British and French passivity during the Ethiopian War was in part to do with cozying up to Italy with war against Germany on the horizon. Here the German issue is resolved and the British/French have a free hand to put a foot down.

Assuming Italy tries to prop up a puppet Austria, Slovenia could be divvied up like OTL.

Maybe this.

1695931467082.png
 
I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the Cvetković–Maček Agreement yet, which never really got a chance to function because of the German invasion. It met the chief demand of Croatians, by creating an autonomous Croatian entity that included as many Croats as possible:

1024px-Locator_map_Croatia_Banovina_in_Yugoslavia_1939-1941.svg.png
 
History Learner said:
I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the Cvetković–Maček Agreement yet, which never really got a chance to function because of the German invasion. It met the chief demand of Croatians, by creating an autonomous Croatian entity that included as many Croats as possible:

1024px-Locator_map_Croatia_Banovina_in_Yugoslavia_1939-1941.svg.png
Click to expand...

Yes I did.
Jackson Lennock said:
Anyways - what happens to Yugoslavia? The Country had effectively been split into three regions (Slovenia, Croatia, and Serbia) with the creation of the Banovina of Croatia in 1939. Would the Croats eventually go all in and declare independence? If that happens, would the country be carved up like during WWII, or would Yugoslavia's neighbors have to be better behaved regarding the tumult next door?
Click to expand...
 
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