WWI-II-like conflagration(s) in the 1850s-61

[Roger II]

(Inspired by @Thande although this is a bit different than his thoughts).

Given the number of revolts, rebellions, civil wars, and wars going on in the 1850s, it would be interesting to think of how these can all like together. My proposal for a WI is as follows: One or more of the Revolutions of 1848 succeed and butterflies embolden abolitionists and free-soilers and frighten slaveowners, which along with maybe some butterflies from the Kansas-Nebraska Act or around then lead to the Civil War kicking off on schedule or earlier, with a stronger antislavery bent from the outset(say, a few more waverers go into the full abolition category) and the 1848ers are backing the antislavery side(since what "union" and confederate" look like may be different here) indirectly and maybe with some people going over, and possible backing from conservatives for the slavocrat side. This is part 1, and would basically be "The Spanish Civil War, but in 1850-60". Possible fun: John Brown is running around and some Swiss liberals are uh shipping him a few more beecher's bibles and a few more men coming over.

This scenario could be extended or a separate scenario added with China getting involved. The PoD here is the God Worshipping Society never gets off the ground or forms, with Hong Xiuqian not coming back or pushing against actual revolt. However, the underlying tensions aren't addressed so instead of a Taiping rebellion there's a somewhat later and larger rebellion that merges more with the Nian Rebellion and the Panthay Rebellion; essentially instead of the Taiping and then other rebellions everything explodes for the Qing at once and they crumble. At this point the US is on fire, or one side's come out on top.

What next? Who comes out on top in China and do they start a war? if so, does anyone get involved? The US, maybe if they want China to be functional or depending on how they feel about the new Chinese regime? Russia, assuming it's not a China-Russia war? Or does something else break out in Europe?

 

[Alex Richards]

The difficulty with this period is that even conflicts occurring at the same time aren't likely to necessarily be seen as interlinked, even if someone like Britain happens to be involved in a conflict in Europe and a conflict in the US or China.

You're right that the US is going to be some sort of alt-civil War with European involvement, but I'm not altogether certain how you could have that with two sides forming up for a war in Europe at the same time, and without that component I can't see how it's really a WWI equivalent rather than an extended 1848 style thing.

 

[Roger II]

Thanks-I was mostly thinking of how you could get as many things happeneing at once, and tbh this is pushing it. And you're right about forming up for a war in Europe-maybe just break this into 2-3 unrelated but interlinked scenarios?

 

[Alex Richards]

Thanks-I was mostly thinking of how you could get as many things happeneing at once, and tbh this is pushing it. And you're right about forming up for a war in Europe-maybe just break this into 2-3 unrelated but interlinked scenarios?

I think it's completely plausible to have the US descend into civil war at about the same time as Europe is being hit by an *Spring of Nations, it's just they're probably only vaguely impacting on eachother.

 

[lordroel]

Would if anybody ever read it, the three books of Britannia's Fist: From Civil War to World War by Peter G. Tsouras fall in this category.

 

[Aznavour]

I guess you could mix the US Civil War with the Mexican Intervention, so UK+France+Royalists+Confederacy vs USA+Juaristas+foreign volunteers.

Alternatively, a more Hawkish Austria vs Prussia or a Bonapartist France getting involved in the war of 1866. In either case, Italy will want to get involved to take Rome, but there's little chance of British or Russian involvement.

 

[OHC]

One or more of the Revolutions of 1848 succeed and butterflies embolden abolitionists and free-soilers and frighten slaveowners, which along with maybe some butterflies from the Kansas-Nebraska Act or around then lead to the Civil War kicking off on schedule or earlier, with a stronger antislavery bent from the outset(say, a few more waverers go into the full abolition category) and the 1848ers are backing the antislavery side(since what "union" and confederate" look like may be different here) indirectly and maybe with some people going over, and possible backing from conservatives for the slavocrat side. This is part 1, and would basically be "The Spanish Civil War, but in 1850-60". Possible fun: John Brown is running around and some Swiss liberals are uh shipping him a few more beecher's bibles and a few more men coming over.

Something similar happens in the Fire on the Mountain book I posted about in Other Published AH - Brown and Tubman's revolt attracts all kinds of 48ers, Garibaldini, and Irish nationalists. I think even Marx shows up as a war correspondent.

It's a long way from that to a world war, but a few changes could definitely loop events in the Americas into the zeitgeist, at least in historiographical terms.