WI: UKIP elects a bunch of MPs in 2015?

[fluttersky]

The Theresa May thread got me thinking about other points of divergence in mid-2010s British politics, and I'm wondering how British politics in the last seven years would be affected in the event of UKIP getting some MPs in 2015, thanks to better-concentrated campaigning or something. As well as Douglas Carswell, let's say Mark Reckless holds his seat in Rochester and Strood, and they gain Nigel Farage (South Thanet), Tim Aker (Thurrock), John Bickley (Heywood and Middleton), Robin Hunter-Clarke (Boston and Skegness), Jamie Huntman (Castle Point), Peter Harris (Dagenham and Rainham), Ian Luder (South Basildon and East Thurrock), Sid Pepper (Mansfield), Piers Wauchope (North Thanet), Allen Cowles (Rother Valley), and Phillip Broughton (Hartlepool).

In reality of course UKIP crashed and burned in the late 2010s, but the question is, would having Farage in parliament and a team of thirteen MPs be enough to ensure the survival of UKIP as a significant political party, even after brexit? Or would its demise be pretty inevitable sooner or later anyway?

 

[Ricardolindo]

The Theresa May thread got me thinking about other points of divergence in mid-2010s British politics, and I'm wondering how British politics in the last seven years would be affected in the event of UKIP getting some MPs in 2015, thanks to better-concentrated campaigning or something. As well as Douglas Carswell, let's say Mark Reckless holds his seat in Rochester and Strood, and they gain Nigel Farage (South Thanet), Tim Aker (Thurrock), John Bickley (Heywood and Middleton), Robin Hunter-Clarke (Boston and Skegness), Jamie Huntman (Castle Point), Peter Harris (Dagenham and Rainham), Ian Luder (South Basildon and East Thurrock), Sid Pepper (Mansfield), Piers Wauchope (North Thanet), Allen Cowles (Rother Valley), and Phillip Broughton (Hartlepool).

In reality of course UKIP crashed and burned in the late 2010s, but the question is, would having Farage in parliament and a team of thirteen MPs be enough to ensure the survival of UKIP as a significant political party, even after brexit? Or would its demise be pretty inevitable sooner or later anyway?

Would this require Cameron not promising a referendum on Brexit?

 

[Lucon50]

Diane James also came close against Nick Clegg's Lib Dems in the 2014 Eastleigh by-election.

 

[Yokai Man]

The Theresa May thread got me thinking about other points of divergence in mid-2010s British politics, and I'm wondering how British politics in the last seven years would be affected in the event of UKIP getting some MPs in 2015, thanks to better-concentrated campaigning or something. As well as Douglas Carswell, let's say Mark Reckless holds his seat in Rochester and Strood, and they gain Nigel Farage (South Thanet), Tim Aker (Thurrock), John Bickley (Heywood and Middleton), Robin Hunter-Clarke (Boston and Skegness), Jamie Huntman (Castle Point), Peter Harris (Dagenham and Rainham), Ian Luder (South Basildon and East Thurrock), Sid Pepper (Mansfield), Piers Wauchope (North Thanet), Allen Cowles (Rother Valley), and Phillip Broughton (Hartlepool).

In reality of course UKIP crashed and burned in the late 2010s, but the question is, would having Farage in parliament and a team of thirteen MPs be enough to ensure the survival of UKIP as a significant political party, even after brexit? Or would its demise be pretty inevitable sooner or later anyway?

The latter. UKIP isn’t known for unity. There’s a reason why they keep changing leaders almost every year and form their own splitter parties.

Farage won’t really get far as an MP-he’d probably get thrown out by the Speaker after a while. Tim Aker is probably gonna just join Libertarians UK after Brexit/Farage going too far,same with Carswell.

As for the rest,I can only theorize but:

Reckless: joins the Conservative Group/Abolish the Assembly after Brexit

Bickley: stays in UKIP for a while longer,then forms his own party

Hunter-Clarke: joins Abolish the Assembly like OTL

Huntman: gets fed up with the party like OTL after changes are refused,becomes an Independent or forms his own party

Peter Harris: defects back to the Conservatives after Brexit

Luder: stays in UKIP for awhile til he becomes an Independent

Pepper: same as Luder

Wauchope: stays in UKIP,probably becomes its leader after 2018/2019

Cowles: remains in UKIP unless Farage leaves and starts another party

Broughton: same as Cowles

After Brexit though,almost all of them are dead politically.

 

[Mumby]

The latter. UKIP isn’t known for unity. There’s a reason why they keep changing leaders almost every year and form their own splitter parties.

Farage won’t really get far as an MP-he’d probably get thrown out by the Speaker after a while. Tim Aker is probably gonna just join Libertarians UK after Brexit/Farage going too far,same with Carswell.

As for the rest,I can only theorize but:

Reckless: joins the Conservative Group/Abolish the Assembly after Brexit

Bickley: stays in UKIP for a while longer,then forms his own party

Hunter-Clarke: joins Abolish the Assembly like OTL

Huntman: gets fed up with the party like OTL after changes are refused,becomes an Independent or forms his own party

Peter Harris: defects back to the Conservatives after Brexit

Luder: stays in UKIP for awhile til he becomes an Independent

Pepper: same as Luder

Wauchope: stays in UKIP,probably becomes its leader after 2018/2019

Cowles: remains in UKIP unless Farage leaves and starts another party

Broughton: same as Cowles

After Brexit though,almost all of them are dead politically.

why would hunter-clarke join abolish if he represents a seat in lincolnshire

 

[Yokai Man]

why would hunter-clarke join abolish if he represents a seat in lincolnshire

Ah sorry,my bad,you’re right. He wouldn’t be part of UKIP Wales in this TL if he wins the seat so he’d probably either return to the Conservatives or become an Independent.

 

[Charles EP M.]

Demise is inevitable once Brexit happens because the EU was the key focus of the party and nothing else really mattered. The power struggles - and @Yokai Man is right that if you put two Kippers in a room, both will try to become leader and stab the other's back - will end up being nastier if the party has seats and there's more to fight over and more people with (relative) prominence.

Though if UKIP has thirteen seats (it's now the third largest UK-wide party!) and this is in a timeline where an EU referendum was promised in the election, that could change things. Tories like Boris who were weighing up their options may come behind Cameron and Remain rather than be seen to be on the side of a rival party leader; Corbyn may be more clearly supportive of Remain because there's an enemy to fight; some Remain-leaning voters that didn't vote after all, like a number of students who later said they thought Remain would win anyway, might vote because of the baddies being around. And if Brexit doesn't happen, UKIP will stick around.... to be riven by their power struggles!

"We almost won but Nigel must have done something wrong. He has to go. (To let ME in.)"

 

[Yokai Man]

Demise is inevitable once Brexit happens because the EU was the key focus of the party and nothing else really mattered. The power struggles - and @Yokai Man is right that if you put two Kippers in a room, both will try to become leader and stab the other's back - will end up being nastier if the party has seats and there's more to fight over and more people with (relative) prominence.

Though if UKIP has thirteen seats (it's now the third largest UK-wide party!) and this is in a timeline where an EU referendum was promised in the election, that could change things. Tories like Boris who were weighing up their options may come behind Cameron and Remain rather than be seen to be on the side of a rival party leader; Corbyn may be more clearly supportive of Remain because there's an enemy to fight; some Remain-leaning voters that didn't vote after all, like a number of students who later said they thought Remain would win anyway, might vote because of the baddies being around. And if Brexit doesn't happen, UKIP will stick around.... to be riven by their power struggles!

"We almost won but Nigel must have done something wrong. He has to go. (To let ME in.)"

I do feel however that if they remove Farage,
UKIP loses a lot of their supporters like OTL who'd move to Farage's new party or just don't bother voting anymore.

I also feel that Brexit might still happen-it will be slighty narrower but I can see it happening,especially if UKIP has 13 MPs.

After all,let's not forget that the Remain campaign wasn't really well run-a lot of the reasons why Leave won can be placed on Will Straw and the other main organizers who were too complacent and just incompetent at times.