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WI : The Vivaldi brothers successfully circumnavigate Africa

LSCatilina

Never Forget Avaricon
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Teuta Albigas - Rutenoi - Keltika
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In 1291, two Genoese merchants, Vandino and Ugolino Vivaldi, set themselves to circumnavigate Africa to reach India with two galleys (which, in spite of being a later model, would have looked somewhat like this) but disappeared shortly thereafter beyond southern Morroco, altough they might have reached as far south and west as Canaries Islands.

Now, I think we can agree there were virtually no chances that they would have managed to reach India and pulled a Vasco de Gama two hundred years afore. But imagining they would have somewhat crossed the Cape of Good Hope and reached Somalia (even if it means making a good chunk of the travel on foot on or Arab ships) what would be the consequences in Europe?
Would we see a comparable cultural importance to Marco Polo's travels in European imaginary? An earlier European interest on African (and more broadly southern Atlantic) navigation?
 
In 1291, two Genoese merchants, Vandino and Ugolino Vivaldi, set themselves to circumnavigate Africa to reach India with two galleys (which, in spite of being a later model, would have looked somewhat like this) but disappeared shortly thereafter beyond southern Morroco, altough they might have reached as far south and west as Canaries Islands.

Now, I think we can agree there were virtually no chances that they would have managed to reach India and pulled a Vasco de Gama two hundred years afore. But imagining they would have somewhat crossed the Cape of Good Hope and reached Somalia (even if it means making a good chunk of the travel on foot on or Arab ships) what would be the consequences in Europe?
Would we see a comparable cultural importance to Marco Polo's travels in European imaginary? An earlier European interest on African (and more broadly southern Atlantic) navigation?

The main issue is that (from my admittedly limited knowledge), you need to swing out at sea to round west Africa due to local currents, which is what stopped sea traffic going that way for the longest time. If you make that swing, you can probably have free range of the western coast, at least. I'm pretty sure galleys can't handle those seas but assuming they somehow manage it both ways so Europe hear about it, they don't even have to make it past the Cape for this to be a massive game changer that opens all of subsaharan west Africa to direct trade rather than only an indirect trickle through the sahara trade routes.
 
In 1291, two Genoese merchants, Vandino and Ugolino Vivaldi, set themselves to circumnavigate Africa to reach India with two galleys (which, in spite of being a later model, would have looked somewhat like this) but disappeared shortly thereafter beyond southern Morroco, altough they might have reached as far south and west as Canaries Islands.

Now, I think we can agree there were virtually no chances that they would have managed to reach India and pulled a Vasco de Gama two hundred years afore. But imagining they would have somewhat crossed the Cape of Good Hope and reached Somalia (even if it means making a good chunk of the travel on foot on or Arab ships) what would be the consequences in Europe?
Would we see a comparable cultural importance to Marco Polo's travels in European imaginary? An earlier European interest on African (and more broadly southern Atlantic) navigation?

Amazingly, I first learned about these two while watching a long lecture earlier today. Wonderful timing!
 
It's believed that another Genoese navigator, Lancelotto Malocello, was looking for the Vivaldi brothers when he set sail from Genoa in 1312. He landed in the Canary Islands and gave his name to the island of Lanzarote.

It's obvious there was some Genoese interest in finding a trade route to India without having to deal with the middlemen in the eastern Mediterranean and the Near East. But their galleys had too low a freeboard to handle any sorts of rough seas - decent for the Mediterranean Sea, bad for the Atlantic Ocean. I think what has to happen is for a better ship of the time to make such a voyage, like a cog from northwestern Europe and the Baltic Sea. Either someone from the Hanseatic League gets inspired after hearing about the Vivaldi brothers, or the Vivaldis barely make it back to the Mediterranean after losing one galley to rough seas along with nearly losing the other one, and either they or another Genoese navigator makes another attempt with more suitable ships.

As for the effects of the 200 year early circumnavigation of Africa, the primary mercantile powers of the time were Genoa, Venice, and the Hanseatic League. The Hanse likely had the right ships for the voyage, but were more of a loose confederation of merchant guilds and market towns with no overarcing authority to direct any ventures very far outward, apart from the kontors, or extraterritorial trading posts, they had from London to Novgorod. The leaders of this are likely to be Genoa and Venice, who are going to basically be an earlier Portugal and Spain. The rest of Europe is too sunk into their own affairs, or more focused on the Holy Land, to pursue it themselves until the Genoese and Venetians start showing tangible benefits. This will probably see a faster development of the Italian city-state versions of caravels or carracks to take advantage of the new trade route. While Genoa will be the one to initially discover the trans-African route to India, Venice might be the one to try and cross the Atlantic to reach India that way and thus cross into the Western Hemisphere in the early 14th Century. The Hanseatic League's Hansetag, or Hanseatic Diet, that formed in the 14th Century might be the engine by which Hanseatic ships start getting in on the action as well, since they were still powerful at the time and were yet to use their Confederation of Cologne to defeat Denmark. You might see Genoese and Hanseatic trading posts in India, while Venetian traders make contact with a Mesoamerica still ruled by the Tepanecs of Azcapotzalco with restive subjects, including the Aztecs of Tenochtitlan.
 
It occurs to me that the 14th Century might be an optimum time for the mercantile powers to solidify some trading posts and/or settlements along the African coast or in the Caribbean islands. Venice gained quite a bit of wealth transporting people to the Holy Land during this period, but the Great Famine is due to happen in Europe starting in 1315 as the Little Ice Age begins, which won't end until 1850. Genoa, Venice, and the Hanseatic League may find willing European settlers to establish trading posts, plantations and settlements in warmer climes to escape the charnel house Europe is going to become during the 14th Century. Many of them likely won't deal with the tropical climate that well either, but its a better chance than Europe, and many will probably be even willing to pay for the opportunity. Probably if European settlers start fleeing overseas, England under Edward III, as well as Castile, might become interested in the Western Hemisphere. Castile, or possibly even the Emirate of Granada, might create problems for Genoa and Venice if they suddenly decide to start cutting off their ships at the Strait of Gibraltar, which might see a temporary alliance between the two to guarantee their access to the Atlantic, possibly even seeing Gibraltar itself come under a more complete Genoese control as they had a short-lived colony there not too long before, while Venice will probably establish their own colony somewhere nearby. If Granada is the one kicking up a fuss, Genoa and Venice may actively support Castile in their Reconquista in exchange for commercial and possibly colonial concessions, leading to an earlier fall of Granada than OTL.
 
Is there a way for 1) circumnavigation to be accomplished first from the *east* for *handwaves reasons* or 2) for sailing tech to transfer from the Indian Ocean to the Med basin (assuming that Indian ocean sailing was generally more capable of handling rough seas)
 
There is a story that was recorded by Herodotus in the fifth century BC (he was a citizen of what is now SW Turkey near Bodrum, then a Greek state near the Achaemenid Persian empire's border in W Anatolia, and travelled across the Middle East as far as Egypt))of an attempted Persian circumnavigation of Africa some time in the reign of Xerxes, ie 485 to 465 BCE. This was probably launched from Persian-ruled Egypt as the latter had had trade down the Red Sea and into the Indian Ocean for millenia, with links to the mysterious land of 'Punt' - probably Somalia - but was ordered by Xerxes himself from his court at Persepolis/ Istakr. The expedition was probably mainly manned by Phoenicians, ie from modern Lebanon, which had also had trade down the Red Sea at times, either overland to ports in the Sinai/ Aqaba region and thence by sea or even by sea direct from the Med via the mysterious Egyptian 'Canal of Necho' from the lower Nile (near Memphis/ site of Cairo) to the Red Sea when the latter was open; Necho/ Nekau was a Pharoah of the late C7th BCE who built the canal but it is unclear if it was still open in the time of Persian rule, ie after 522 BCE. The commander, who appears to have offered to command or even suggested it to win glory for the Great King to repair his reputation after a charge of rape for which he was facing execution , was a royal Achaemenid relative, Sataspes. Possibly his mother, a princess, put him up to it or arranged for Xerxes to see him. (Herodotus, Book Four, chapter 42.)

The expedition was apparently large and was based on one that had occurred under Necho himself, the latter being made up of Phoenician sailors and taking place c. 600 BC (??after Necho gave up on cutting his canal). This had apparently been successful, and went from East to West, ie down the Red Sea, then South and round the Cape of Good Hope to Gibraltar ; at this stage Carthage was not yet a block to other nations of using the route through the Straits . It was designed to take three years and to go ashore to grow and then harvest corn for food during long halts at the correct season of the year for planting. In the third year it returned via the western Mediterranean to Egypt. Herodotus recounts that it was reported that the expedition found that the sun was North of directly overhead in the summer, ie that the ships did get into the Southern hemisphere as this phenomenon would only be known if it had been seen and recorded.

The proposed Persian expedition, probably in the 470s BCE, was presumably designed provide a Persian Empire trade route to the Western Med and Atlantic that avoided having to contend with the hostility of Carthage, which then had a monopoly of this due to its control of the North African coast from Libya to the Straits of Gibraltar plus the West of Sicily and its banning of any other power's ships from using the Straits. It got through the Straits, possibly by agreement with Carthage (a former colony and commercial ally of the Phoenician ports and possible military ally of Persia under Xerxes) and headed down the West African coast. But the Persian expedition had to give up due to too strong currents against it somewhere along the middle part of the West coast of Africa, possibly around Nigeria or Gabon, apparently close to a land inhabited by 'small' men - the tribes later known to C19th Europeans as 'pygmies'?? The commander returned to Xerxes to explain why he had failed; the Great King did not believe him, and/or ruled that he had failed to carry out his orders anyway, and had him executed. Herodotus said that one of his men, a eunuch (possibly a Persian court official/ servant), escaped and fled to the Aegean island of Samos, formerly a naval power under its C6th ruler Polycrates so possibly a supplier of ships and sailors to Xerxes.

If they had succeeded in working out how to evade the currents, eg by going further out to sea towards Brazil and avoiding getting lost with careful use of the stars to work out their positions, success would not have made the route commercially useable. The trip would still have taken far too long for ancient shipping to go South and West to the W African coast or Spain/ the British tin entrepots (eg Mounts Bay, Cornwall?) .then return easily. It would have been redundant at the fall of Carthage anyway. But the survival of records of the expedition in the Persian or some Phoenician port city archives could have enabled these to be accessed and copied under the Roman Empire, then rediscovered in the C13th or C14th by Italian scholars; it would show that the trip had been done before and what the hazards were.
 
Right, the que
If they had succeeded in working out how to evade the currents, eg by going further out to sea towards Brazil and avoiding getting lost with careful use of the stars to work out their positions, success would not have made the route commercially useable. The trip would still have taken far too long for ancient shipping to go South and West to the W African coast or Spain/ the British tin entrepots (eg Mounts Bay, Cornwall?) .then return easily. It would have been redundant at the fall of Carthage anyway. But the survival of records of the expedition in the Persian or some Phoenician port city archives could have enabled these to be accessed and copied under the Roman Empire, then rediscovered in the C13th or C14th by Italian scholars; it would show that the trip had been done before and what the hazards were.

Would the 13th/14th century Italians have had good enough shipping to make commercial use of the route?
 
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