WI: Ottoman-Entente Peace in 1915/1916.

[Jackson Lennock]

Chief of Staff Alekseyev proposed that Russia pressure its Entente allies to accept a separate peace with the Ottomans in an October 1915 letter to Foreign Minister Sergey Sazanov. By 1916 the Ottomans may have accepted. As Russia pushed into Anatolia, the Ottoman public began to get ever more worried. Russia, on the other hand, was mainly concerned with getting the Straits open (solving railway, import-export, and currency crises). But on the other hand, after the Erzurum Offensive (January to February 1916) proved successful and two new battleships entered the Russian fleet, he decided that total defeat of the Ottomans was a preferable route.


Terms likely would have meant [1] Russia keeping some of Ottoman Armenia (including Van), [2] the straights being opened to civilian traffic and closed to the Central Powers, [3] expulsion of German military advisors, and [4] Britain gaining Basra vilayet or (in exchange for abandoning Basra) Southern Palestine. The Ottomans would gain [1] undoing of unfair treaties and [2] waiving of debts.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

A possible peace map of borders after a settlement, based on the frontlines of October 1915.

The Russians gaining the land they occupied sees straightforward. Assuming the peace deal is coupled with population exchanges, it would save perhaps a million Armenians, Assyrians, and Greeks from their historic fate.

 

[LSCatilina]

Wasn't ethnic cleansing of the Armenian and Greek population already envisioned by the government and nationalist factions at this point, partly as a reaction to the Balkanic Wars, rather than solely the world war?

 

[Geordie]

If the Ottomans seek peace before October 1915 - or indeed, if there are inklings that they may do so, Bulgaria may decide not to jump in. That has big ramifications for the Serbian theatre, as well as Greece and Romania.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Wasn't ethnic cleansing of the Armenian and Greek population already envisioned by the government and nationalist factions at this point, partly as a reaction to the Balkanic Wars, rather than solely the world war?

Yes. The concern was that Armenians, Greeks, and Assyrians would break up the empire further.

Here I suspect that the peace terms would include Russia being made to take in the Armenians, Greeks, and Assyrians.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

If the Ottomans seek peace before October 1915 - or indeed, if there are inklings that they may do so, Bulgaria may decide not to jump in. That has big ramifications for the Serbian theatre, as well as Greece and Romania.

Maybe the Bulgarians could even join the Entente. Russia OTL tried to pressure Serbia to make cessions to Bulgaria for such a purpose.

 

[Geordie]

Maybe the Bulgarians could even join the Entente. Russia OTL tried to pressure Serbia to make cessions to Bulgaria for such a purpose.

If the Serbs believe Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia, and the Voivodina are in play, they might be willing to make some cessions in Macedonia. Whether it's enough is a different question.

ISTR the French and Russians were promising Sofia a big loan in the changing of their cabinet to a more entente-friendly grouping.

An Entente Bulgaria not only relieves pressure on Serbia, but Bulgarian troops can help them hold the line. I'm assuming Romania would still lean towards the Entente, but don't know.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

If the Serbs believe Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia, and the Voivodina are in play, they might be willing to make some cessions in Macedonia. Whether it's enough is a different question.

ISTR the French and Russians were promising Sofia a big loan in the changing of their cabinet to a more entente-friendly grouping.

An Entente Bulgaria not only relieves pressure on Serbia, but Bulgarian troops can help them hold the line. I'm assuming Romania would still lean towards the Entente, but don't know.

If things are even more lopsided in the Entente favor in this timeline, I don't see why they would stay out.

Russia has a million more men for the Eastern front, and they're now better fed and better supplied than OTL.

 

[Geordie]

If things are even more lopsided in the Entente favor in this timeline, I don't see why they would stay out.

Russia has a million more men for the Eastern front, and they're now better fed and better supplied than OTL.

Good point. Austria having a harder time against a renewed Balkan League and the Russians is a pretty tempting target for Bucharest.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Also, Bulgaria joined the war in October 1915 ... but the Ottomans would have withdrawn right afterward. I wonder if the Bulgarians would immediately decide to say "hey, can we back out?" and sue for modest terms for neutrality.

An Entente Bulgaria after having already joined the Central Powers would be ... weird.

 

[Geordie]

Also, Bulgaria joined the war in October 1915 ... but the Ottomans would have withdrawn right afterward. I wonder if the Bulgarians would immediately decide to say "hey, can we back out?" and sue for modest terms for neutrality.

An Entente Bulgaria after having already joined the Central Powers would be ... weird.

My thinking was more that the Bulgarians would potentially (either through rumours and innuendo, or being told by Entente diplomats who want to make sure they stay out) work out that the Otomans are about to bail, so resist diving in.

Especially if there's a nice bit of money and the chance of "border corrections" in Macedonia.

 

[raharris1973]

But on the other hand, after the Erzurum Offensive (January to February 1916) proved successful and two new battleships entered the Russian fleet, he decided that total defeat of the Ottomans was a preferable route.

So those items on their own fronts were enough to make them that extra confident. I guess the Russians just had no idea how much of shitshow the Dardanelles landings had turned into then? Seems odd. That soon turned into a total retreat under fire. Not long after that, there was a British surrender at Kut. Do you have anything about inside the Turkish govt opinions on these matters at the time, like what the Pashas were thinking? Or just rumors about *public* fright.

Assuming the peace deal is coupled with population exchanges, it would save perhaps a million Armenians, Assyrians, and Greeks from their historic fate.

Here I suspect that the peace terms would include Russia being made to take in the Armenians, Greeks, and Assyrians.

All of them to Russia?

Armenians make sense, due to large Armenian areas in Russian Empire. Assyrians? Why to Russia? Because they live somewhat near to where Armenians are, and they are just swept up in 'Christian clean-up'? What about British Basra for these semitic speakers. But Maronites and Greek Orthodox Arabs are left alone? And the Greeks- why to Russia and not Greece? I know Greece was not a formal belligerent, but still it seems a more natural destination. Or British Cyprus, where they can join other Hellenophones.

 

[Roger II]

I thought the Russians didn't want Van? If they point-blank decline to take control that may save some Armenians more-make it clear that te

Wasn't ethnic cleansing of the Armenian and Greek population already envisioned by the government and nationalist factions at this point, partly as a reaction to the Balkanic Wars, rather than solely the world war?

Yes, the Armenian Genocide kicked off in 1915 demon wikipedia says in April of 1915 although Turkey refuses to allow access to most of the internal archives that we actually need to figure out what decisions the Ottoman government was making. OFC if a separate peace is already on offer before April 1915 and either population exchanges or explicit Russian disavowal of interest in any NE Anatolian vilayets are in the offer *and* the Ottomans take it that doe moot the issue.

 

[raharris1973]

How does not taking Van help Armenians? If the Russians have it, more Armenians live under Russian protection.

 

[Roger II]

How does not taking Van help Armenians? If the Russians have it, more Armenians live under Russian protection.

I'm envisioning a scenario where the Ottomans know that Russia has 0 interest in taking Van or backing an independent Armenian state in Van and/or have explicitly offered the Ottomans a negotiated population exchange, so the CUP never develops a "the Armenians in Van are a threat to our internal security" mindset. But this depends a lot on currently unknown Ottoman materials on the onset of the Armenian genocide and I'm operating under an assumption that the genocide was driven as much by short-term exingencies and cumulative radicalization as anything else.