On the tin. Let's say that sometime in 2014, the stress of Benghazi gives Hilary a minor health scare and as a result her doctors advise her not to run. Who runs for the Dem nomination and what are their prospects? Probably there's some mix of left and center candidates, but Biden is probably out and so is Bernie (assuming that he would probably not have run if it weren't for the perception that the race was just a coronation and in any case would be a much weaker candidate without having the "not Hilary" vote to coalesce around him.
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WI: no Hilary 2016 run
- Thread starter Roger II
- Start date
I can see Liz Warren winning,abit in a very close manner.On the tin. Let's say that sometime in 2014, the stress of Benghazi gives Hilary a minor health scare and as a result her doctors advise her not to run. Who runs for the Dem nomination and what are their prospects? Probably there's some mix of left and center candidates, but Biden is probably out and so is Bernie (assuming that he would probably not have run if it weren't for the perception that the race was just a coronation and in any case would be a much weaker candidate without having the "not Hilary" vote to coalesce around him.
Jackson Lennock
Well-known member
Why is Biden out? He tried to run OTL, but Hillary Clinton had aggressively boxed him out by locking up endorsements and donors early on. Plus Obama sided with Hillary. He put out that book saying that his son's deathbed wish was for Joe to be President, and he was positioning himself as on the left flank of the party by saying he'd pick Elizabeth Warren as his running mate.
Warren would run, which would mean Bernie would not run. Bernie's coalition was a mix of (a) cultural conservatives in the Democratic party (b) never-Hillary people and (c) people who always want to vote for the left-most candidate. Warren would probably not do as well as Bernie did because some of the factors that boosted Bernie (blue collar culturally conservative Dems preferring the old dude to Hillary; and a lot of people just not liking Hillary specifically) won't play in her favor.
Biden-Warren beats Trump pretty easily. Biden's just harder to demonize than Hillary, and the idea of "Biden as senile" won't hit as hard in 2016 where Biden was noticeably less tired-looking.
Warren would run, which would mean Bernie would not run. Bernie's coalition was a mix of (a) cultural conservatives in the Democratic party (b) never-Hillary people and (c) people who always want to vote for the left-most candidate. Warren would probably not do as well as Bernie did because some of the factors that boosted Bernie (blue collar culturally conservative Dems preferring the old dude to Hillary; and a lot of people just not liking Hillary specifically) won't play in her favor.
Biden-Warren beats Trump pretty easily. Biden's just harder to demonize than Hillary, and the idea of "Biden as senile" won't hit as hard in 2016 where Biden was noticeably less tired-looking.
Elektronaut
Effectively Stood Down
- Location
- The Legendarium of Gentleman Julius
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- He/Him
Cuomo would also almost surely run. I can’t see Biden locking up endorsements the same way Hilldawg did, leaving an opening on the more moderate lane for Cuomo.
Not sure how long Cuomo as a national candidate would survive contact with reality given all we know now. Or Warren for that matter.
And yes, the White House played a huge role in actually getting Hillary to run as their chosen candidate. Aside from Bill, they were the biggest people encouraging her. If she falls off her perch in 2014 then Biden is the only really obvious alternative for that support.
Vidal
Well-known member
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- Washington, DC
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Booker and Gillibrand also run, and 2016 was a more favorable year for them than 2020. Obviously both struggled in 2020, but in 2016, the idea of a woman nominee was still novel and there was excitement around it and Gillibrand would capture that. Klobuchar runs too but I think she would actually have a harder time in 16 without Trump bc I think a lot of her strength was in the fact she was from the Midwest and seen as someone who could win back MI, WI, and PA. Of course, in 2016, no one seriously thought those states were at risk, esp not to Trump
Visigoethe
lefty lurker
- Pronouns
- he/him
Biden is the strong favorite, coming off a relatively high approval of the second Obama term and four fewer years of age. I don't really see anyone that could beat him tbqh. Gillibrand taking the mantle of the first potential female President is interesting, but I don't really think she gained momentum as a national figure until Trump's inauguration. Booker has been telegraphing a presidential run since he first gained national prominence and might make greater inroads with younger voters than he did in 2020, on another hand, the fundamentals that prevented him from cutting into Biden's strength with black voters haven't changed from OTL's 2020. I don't Cuomo risking his immense political capital in New York to poll 14% in New Hampshire.
Some other stray thoughts:
- Jerry Brown even at his high age didn't completely shut the door on running in 2016 and I believe would be a fairly strong contender. Especially as the state's housing crisis is only just starting to become a nationwide problem.
- You can probably shake some variation of Ed Rendell, Steve Beshear, and John Hickenlooper in a bag and pull one of them out to run a presidential campaign in this timeline.
- With Warren possibly being Biden's running mate, the left is still loose a candidate. Bernie might still do it honestly, but won't be aided by Clinton's historically bad approvals. There's a reason he gained traction in 2016 beyond the anti-Hillary factor or else O'Malley and Webb would have been his equals. But I don't think the urgency or demand is as great here. Expect the left lane to be filled by a more crankish candidate like Kucinich or Oliver Stone (lol). Franken might toy with it and Julian Castro probably tests an exploratory committee for a few weeks.
Some other stray thoughts:
- Jerry Brown even at his high age didn't completely shut the door on running in 2016 and I believe would be a fairly strong contender. Especially as the state's housing crisis is only just starting to become a nationwide problem.
- You can probably shake some variation of Ed Rendell, Steve Beshear, and John Hickenlooper in a bag and pull one of them out to run a presidential campaign in this timeline.
- With Warren possibly being Biden's running mate, the left is still loose a candidate. Bernie might still do it honestly, but won't be aided by Clinton's historically bad approvals. There's a reason he gained traction in 2016 beyond the anti-Hillary factor or else O'Malley and Webb would have been his equals. But I don't think the urgency or demand is as great here. Expect the left lane to be filled by a more crankish candidate like Kucinich or Oliver Stone (lol). Franken might toy with it and Julian Castro probably tests an exploratory committee for a few weeks.