Yakov Sverdlov would probably become brief leader (which probably butterflies his death a bit) and whilst Stalin could certainly become leader, he would probably be constrained by having to keep the party balanced as it fights the White Army and that would also likely see a Troika emerge which could see Stalin shuffled aside in time in favour of Sverdlov or Zinoviev, who would probably gain more prominence due to there connections with Lenin etc.I'm reading Antony Beevor's history of the Russian Revolution and Civil War, and just got to where Fanya Kaplan tried to assassinate Lenin without any success. But what if she had managed to kill him? I can't imagine this results in a White victory, but it might delay their defeat a little perhaps. More importantly, how does the succession among the Bolsheviks play out in 1918? Would Stalin still come out on top at that earlier date?
I will also give a call out to @Nyvis given she’s discussed the trials of Pre-Stalin Soviet Union before.
I'm reading Antony Beevor's history of the Russian Revolution and Civil War, and just got to where Fanya Kaplan tried to assassinate Lenin without any success. But what if she had managed to kill him? I can't imagine this results in a White victory, but it might delay their defeat a little perhaps. More importantly, how does the succession among the Bolsheviks play out in 1918? Would Stalin still come out on top at that earlier date?
Bukharian I always see as more of man who would work better in a Troika or being the Soviet equivalent of Chancellor per say.Bukharin is, as ever, likely to be too nice to end up on top, though his opinion is likely to be relevant. Bear in mind he's not a stalwart of the party right quite yet. He was a big proponent of war communism early on.
Sverdlov or Zinoviev are good stable picks everyone could rally behind because they don't have big controversial stances, which means the party would keep being where things are debated under them. Probably the best option for that reason, but not a final conclusion.
Bukharian I always see as more of man who would work better in a Troika or being the Soviet equivalent of Chancellor per say.
With Sverdlov or Zinoviev in charge for the Civil War, I would guess it’s still a Soviet Victory and there stable presence probably guides the Soviets afterwards.
Amusingly I could see this as a scenario where with Stalin sidelined, I could see a more charismatic figure like Sergei Kirov eventually emerging as Soviet leader in time due to his combination of being a war hero, charismatic and also being good at playing the political side of things better (his budding up with Stalin and denouncing the Right Opposition seems to be a combination of him disliking there policies on Collectivisation but also because it made sense to be friendly with the General Secretary).
