Not to mess with the original POD too much, but if Japan had Liaohe, Daqing, and secured North Sakhalin and its oil fields after WWI - would Japan have enough oil within itself to not seek a need to engage in expansionism?
Perhaps, to an extent. You'd probably still see it engaging in expansionism, but it'd probably far more closely resemble the US style of colonial imperialism (with its pan-Americanist Monroe Doctrine, and installation of 'banana republics') of that era, rather than traditional European colonial imperialism. With its own 'Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere' continued and implemented, perhaps a fair few years earlier, along the
Wilsonian and Pan-Asianism principles of the original concept for it; lending greater support for anti-imperialist independence movements across the wider region, and adopting its own equivalent of the
Roosevelt Corollary, rather than simply invading to annex these territories to expand Imperial Japan, lending scope for military interventions to install 'banana republic'-style puppet regimes of its choice if necessary, in these newly independent nations, via its own equivalent of the USA's
Banana Wars.
That had been pretty much the plan IOTL (with the Japanese Army having explicitly stated that the new Japanese Empire was the Asian equivalent of the
Monroe Doctrine, especially with the
Roosevelt Corollary, with 'Greater East Asia' being to Japan what Latin America was to the United States). But it never really worked; the initially positive and welcoming reception of the GEACPS throughout most of the Western colonies in Asia recently captured by the Japanese was swiftly over-ridden by the brutality of the subsequent Japanese military occupations, exacerbated by the Japanese government directing that the economies of occupied territories were to be managed strictly for the production of raw materials for the Japanese war effort alone- the purpose for which Japan had deemed it was so urgent to seize/'liberate' them all in the first place, almost entirely as a result of the embargo on raw materials that were vital to Japan's war effort.
ITTL, with their own oil supply more or less sorted, the Japanese would almost certainly strike north against Russia instead. After all, looking at all of the major iron ore deposits in the world which had been documented back in 1939:
So far as they know, there'd no prospect of the choice they decided to go with IOTL, pursuing expansionism into South-East Asia, helping them out at all with regards to the embargo on scrap metal to support their steel and iron industry. And they'd almost certainly prioritize steel over rubber; being more likely to stick with the approach they'd originally favored for South-East Asia, of supporting and puppetizing anti-colonialist independence movements. Like
@Thande suggested as an underdone WI, there'd be a good chance of the Imperial Japanese deciding to go after the British and/or Dutch colonies, or even the lowest-hanging fruit of Vichy France's colonies, as almost happened in the case of the Franco-Thai War, in which Thailand invaded and annexed portions of French Indochina in part under the proclamation of affiliation with the Allies, courting the British and Americans.
ITTL though, with the Nazi-Soviet Pact having still been effect at the time that the Franco-Thai War broke out, and with the German-Soviet Axis talks still ongoing at this point, with its own oilfield(/s) in Manchukuo even more abundant and plentiful than those (yet known and tapped) of the Dutch East Indies, wouldn't there be every chance that when the Japanese strike north to go after Outer Manchuria, they'd strike into French Indo-China as well, in full support of its staunchest junior ally (even if with the primary motive of securing the majority of the spoils for itself), but also as an overture to the Allies (effectively breaking with the Axis powers, or never having signed up to the Tripartite Pact in the first place, with the extent of its alliance with the Axis remaining more akin to those of OTL's Finland, or even OTL's Spain ITTL)? How would the Allies (i.e, just the British Commonwealth and Greece left, at this point in time) react to such a move- would they oppose it, or be willing to countenance the prospect of welcoming Japan and Thailand's earlier entry to the war on the Allied side (even if only to a similar extent that Stalin's Soviet Union was 'welcomed' by them later on IOTL)? And indeed, with OTL's Tripartite Pact having been either never been signed by Japan or repudiated early on (with the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact having been met with shock and anger in Japan, by the 'Strike North' faction most of all- seen as a direct violation of the Anti-Comintern Pact and a betrayal of their common interests, and being their chief point of objection to joining the Tripartite Pact IOTL), there'd be a small chance of Japan deciding to open hostilities by implementing one of the
Hachi-Go Plans to strike north against the Soviets (and/or against Vichy France to seize French Indochina), even before the breakdown of the
German-Soviet Axis Talks.
In this eventuality, might even Hitler and Stalin be willing to contemplate tolerating the Soviets' entry to TTL's Axis? Japan's northern territories, including the far more tempting oil-rich Manchukuo, would almost certainly be demanded by Stalin as an higher-priority addition to the Soviets' designated zone of territorial domination ITTL; and with Japan most likely being a more peripheral ally of the Axis ITTL (and a non-Aryan one at that), Hitler'd likely be even more ready and willing to sacrifice them to the Soviets' sphere of interest than he was in the case of Finland IOTL. Especially since it'd provide the bonus of channeling the Soviets' military resources towards their struggle against the Empire of Japan for control over Greater Manchuria, and make it easier to stab them in the back when the time comes for TTL's equivalent of Operation Barbarossa (which would be conducted in a manner more akin to the 1941
Kantouken Operation planned by Imperial Japan's 'Strike North' faction, banking in part upon the Soviets' reduced ability to reinforce the Far East in light of their ongoing hard-fought conflict against Japan in the Far East- but one which would be guaranteed to actually be launched ITTL by Hitler, since there's no chance of Hitler ever choosing not to ultimately 'Strike East' to obtain his Lebensraum).