WI Helmut Kohl wins the German federal election in 1976?

[Max Sinister]

While I'm still no real Kohl fan, I had the idea and wanted to share it. As said elsewhere, we don't have many TLs centered on post-war German politics.

The federal election in 1976 was very close - Helmut Schmidt's Social Democrats and Genscher's Liberals had a majority of just ten. Could have swung easily the other way round. WI it did?

IOTL, Franz Josef Strauß afterwards mocked Kohl for losing, claimed he'd write a book as an old man "I've been candidate for chancellor for 40 years". Yeah, he always had a big mouth. No wonder Kohl didn't like him too much afterwards and didn't give him a ministry in 1982/83.

But WI Kohl had won in 1976? Just some keywords.

Strauß as Exterior, Defense

Carstens, Diepgen still elected

Spiegel angry earlier.

Greens stronger in 1979/80. Euro Parliament even?

Oil crisis tricky.

Reagan, Thatcher.

Vogel loses in 1980.

Union/FDP since then?

Left FDP may not split off.

Experiments with Red-Green in Hesse. Hamburg?

1984 Greens in, FDP out.

Lafo Saarland 1981?

Rau minority chancellor?

Petra Kelly Exterior, Antje Vollmer Development Aid.

Chernobyl saves him in 1988 against Strauß.

Greens demand to leave the NATO after the end of the Cold War.

Schäuble wins in 1991/92 with Möllemann. Who drives the FDP to the right.

Norway in EU?

Private TV boom.

East German chancellors change pretty fast: de Maizière, Krause, Diestel, Milbradt.

CSU, FDP help their eastern counterparts.

1994, Thierse's SPD is strongest party, but CDU/FDP/DSU governs.

No Strauß credit: GDR goes broke earlier!

Pensioners allowed to emigrate from East Germany.

Criminals sent to the West as well.

Rau gives some (how much?), but too little.

Political corruption scandal breaks Möllemann's neck.

1996, Red-Green wins, forming Schröder-Fischer coalition.

 

[Catalunya]

Strauss would be one big problem for Kohl. I always considered the 1976 POD one of the latest for a CDU-CSU split.

Die Grünen may also just turn out more centrist ittl, due to less people from the SPD and more from the Union joining it.

I’m not sure about the rest of what you discussed (Chernobyl may just be butterflied). Perhaps if the Union go too overboard with their social conservatism a red-yellow coalition may come to power in 1980.

 

[Max Sinister]

Well, if they win in 1976, according to you the last chance for a split would be lost.

The question is, how long would Strauß last? It's not that the Spiegel would forgive him for 1962.

TBH, I didn't research what exactly the CDU planned to do in 1976 in case they won.

If Reagan and Thatcher also win ITTL, Germany/Kohl will suddenly be seen as a trendsetter. Of all places/people...