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WI: Caesar survives assassination but is defeated by the Parthians?

Ana_Luciana

Active member
Suppose Caesar avoids the blades of the Liberators and commences his proposed invasion of Parthia. As far as I understand it the various Celtic and Germanic tribes living in Gaul did not have very organised armies. To satisfy personal honour they often attack in a horde, so that individual warriors would have a chance to win glory in one-on-one combat, allowing the tight ranks of Romans to defeat them time and again. But the Parthian Persians are not a barbarian tribe. They are an technologically advanced civilisation. Disciplined, well-organized, with a military that can (and has) defeat the Romans. What are the chances that the Parthians defeat Caesar? If he is defeated what happens to the Empire and the political system he's organising? What happens to Egypt and the Levant?
 
By intents and purposes,Caesar most likely doesn’t advance further than Trajan did OTL in 113 AD and after a while he gets fed up with the stalemate,is forced into a peace treaty and then goes against Scythians and dies sometime around 39-34 BC.

Nothing will really happen if he loses beyond damaging his ego,he already destroyed all opposition to him and Octavian and Marky A aren’t gonna turn on him. Egypt and the Levant still become part of the Empire,everyone wanted them to become under Rome’s control.

Honestly,it’s hard to see much changing history wise with Caesar still around. At best he just accelerates a few things and the civil war between Mark and Tavi happens slightly later and Mark might have a change to win more but that’s it really.

That being said though,Emperor Mark Antony would have been interesting to say the least. Unlike Tavi he wasn’t really political shrewd and often made impulsive decisions and if his tenure as Magister Equitum is anything to show he is not someone you would want in charge. He would have been viewed the same way people view Caligula and Nero nowadays,by the fifth year of his rule he would have been either assassinated or overthrown and the Empire either becomes a republic again or (more likely) whoever couped him Galba style would crown himself as the new Emperor.
 
By intents and purposes,Caesar most likely doesn’t advance further than Trajan did OTL in 113 AD and after a while he gets fed up with the stalemate,is forced into a peace treaty and then goes against Scythians and dies sometime around 39-34 BC.

Nothing will really happen if he loses beyond damaging his ego,he already destroyed all opposition to him and Octavian and Marky A aren’t gonna turn on him. Egypt and the Levant still become part of the Empire,everyone wanted them to become under Rome’s control.
Whilst the image of Caesar just perpetually driving every eastward, eventually taking on the ancestors of the Early Turks is amusing, I think you're probably right. Any expedition into the central Iranian Plateau is out of the question. I think any "conquest" of the Parthian Empire wouldn't extend much further than Mesopotamia.
Honestly,it’s hard to see much changing history wise with Caesar still around. At best he just accelerates a few things and the civil war between Mark and Tavi happens slightly later and Mark might have a change to win more but that’s it really.

That being said though,Emperor Mark Antony would have been interesting to say the least. Unlike Tavi he wasn’t really political shrewd and often made impulsive decisions and if his tenure as Magister Equitum is anything to show he is not someone you would want in charge. He would have been viewed the same way people view Caligula and Nero nowadays,by the fifth year of his rule he would have been either assassinated or overthrown and the Empire either becomes a republic again or (more likely) whoever couped him Galba style would crown himself as the new Emperor.
That's interesting. Why do you say Anthony would have a better chance at winning if the civil war had come later?
 
I think a great deal depends on how the first decade sorts itself out.

Julius Caesar was an infinitively superior general to Mark Antony. He would also be starting his campaign several years earlier, and would have talents like the young Octavian and Marcus Agrippa in his ranks. On the other hand, however, his health would steadily start declining if he lived a few years longer – an attack of epilepsy (or whatever he actually had; it’s debated) might well be disastrous if it happened at the worst possible time, although I said - he would have decent officers who could take over in a pinch. The Persians would be a much harder target than the Gauls and I think Julius Caesar would have preferred to advance slowly, securing his supply lines as he went, rather than assuming victory was certain and neglecting the basics.

At base, Julius Caesar had so much more experience than Mark Antony that there just isn’t any real comparison. He also had a fairly secure rear, with no competitors ready to put a knife in his back. I think it is quite likely that Julius Caesar would have conquered Persia or, at the very least, taken a bite out of the rival empire.

The really interesting question is what would happen when Julius Caesar dies. Octavian would have had more time to prove himself as a worthy son and successor (Octavian was adopted as the heir, but roman law didn’t draw any distinction between biological and adopted sons). On the other hand, the wars that turned Octavian into the first de facto Emperor would not have taken place and the succession might be a little murky. Julius Caesar had a lifetime dictatorship, not monarchy, and I think he was wise enough not to accept kingship it was offered to him again. It’s hard to say how many other competitors Octavian would have in this timeline.

What do you think?

Chris
 
Suppose Caesar avoids the blades of the Liberators and commences his proposed invasion of Parthia. As far as I understand it the various Celtic and Germanic tribes living in Gaul did not have very organised armies. To satisfy personal honour they often attack in a horde, so that individual warriors would have a chance to win glory in one-on-one combat, allowing the tight ranks of Romans to defeat them time and again.
While the Gaulish armies (and up to a point, Germanic ones) certainly were not made up of soldiers, that is all the technicity, discipline, commandment skills, logistics, etc. that characterized the quasi-professional "Marian" legion, that's still a simplistic take on late Latenian warfare.

We know, mostly from Caesar's commentaries (but also from other Greek and Roman historians) that Gauls were able to manoeuvre and hold formations : often a tight-packed phalanx (as was the rule for non-professional classical armies), but also tortoises, envelopment, using gaps in line to move in and out archery (in a very similar way as Romans did), lines formed by warriors of various quality, etc. Nothing particularly comparable to Hellenistic or republican Roman armies, but far from a primitivist one-on-one warfare.
There's a really interesting argument about how late independent Gaul actually went trough a military revolution (and a militarisation of society trough clientelisation and "expension" of warfare on urban classes), along the centralization of the regional petty-states, including mobilisation capacities.

The main problem of Gaulish armies were, well, that they weren't quasi-professional : training, discipline, cohesion, equipment, logistics, etc. was very likely all over the place (even more so as the size of these armies likely expanded) with plethora of war leaders whose hierarchization was likely not very obvious past an high command elected/appointed by a people or coalition : the troops themselves were certainly divided up between groups of very different technicity from a warring elite to a lot of levies or homeguard with everything in between; whereas Caesar's "Marian" legion was extremely cohesive, under a clear and cohesive military and political hierarchy, with a better tactical and technical make-up.

(We otherwise know that Gauls served under Caesar during the Gallic and Civil wars as a skilled cavalry but as well as archers, the Ruten archers being the only ones being specifically named alongside the famed Cretan archers, hinting at a good technicity.)

Note that even in these conditions, the last Gaulish coalitions tended to be more threatening precisely because Gaulish commanders started to adapt : Vercingetorix' coalition thus went really close to defeat Caesar not by sheer numbers, but because of strategical and tactical aggiornamento (very likely born out of a lot of Gauls being Caesarian auxiliaries) resorting to hammer-and-anvil strategy, supply denial, etc.

Caesar genuinely had to display and tune political and military skills during the campaigns that were far enough from being a cakewalk he resorted to not-so-common sieges (such as the double fortification) and brutal practices that even Roman felt were veering on war crimes to deal with the situation (which, giving how Romans were comfortable with the right of the victors, is somewhat remarkable). I wouldn't say that a Caesarian defeat at the end of Parthians would have come from him being a strategic fraud confronted to an actually real army.



Relatedly, you could make the argument that the Parthian army itself wouldn't really be considered as professional either, at the least not to the point the late Republican army was.
A non-standing army (which arguably the late Marian legion still *technically* was itself) made up of levied fighters ranging from highly skilled nobles or guards to fairly secondary client infantry; whose logistic capacities were limited by the length of service and the "feudal" organization of the army (and thus often leading Parthians to resort to an attrition war leading Romans further from their bases), a rather complex and "decentralized" military command.

This doesn't diminish the very real military capacities of the Parthian armies as they existed IOTL but, there as well, I don't think that would necessarily mean Caesar would have a field day or, conversely, be outskilled.
 
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