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WI: Brazil and France go to war... Over Lobster?

SSgtC

Member
Before you laugh, the premise isn't nearly as crazy as it sounds. Between 1961 and 1963, Brazil and France nearly fought a war over lobster. Specifically the Caribbean Spiny Lobster fishery.

In 1961, French fishing vessels crossed the Atlantic from the Western coast of Africa to try new grounds and began harvesting spiny lobster from the Continental shelf off Brazil. The larger French vessels nearly bankrupted the small Brazilian coastal craft. In response to complaints from those fishermen, Brazil dispatched several warships to the area to investigate. They ultimately agreed with the fishermen, ordered the French vessels to leave and when they refused, seized them in what were then international waters.

In response, the French deployed a large destroyer to the area causing Brazil to send two light cruisers and three Fletcher class destroyers to back up their side. Around this time, both sides realised that going to war over lobster was insanely stupid and de-escalated the situation.

The dispute was ultimately resolved by Brazil copying the United States and declaring that their territorial waters extended out to 200 miles from their coast (encompassing the fishing grounds), granting a few French ships a temporary license to fish there and requiring the French ships to pay Brazilian fisherman a portion of their profits.

But what if the situation hadn't ended peacefully? What if someone, either through error or deliberately, fires on a warship of the other side? What would be the ramifications of this both internationally and domestically within France and Brazil?

To me, Brazil is very interesting. Just a few months after the standoff was resolved, the Brazilian President was couped by the Military who established the junta that would go on to rule Brazil for the next two decades (they were fully supported by the United States in their coup). How does the Lobster War becoming an actual war effect the coup and Brazil-US relations? Goulart (the Brazilian President) was already seen as a communist sympathizer in the US. Would the US push for a coup anyway or would they play peace broker?
 
Seems to depend on who fires - if Brazilian ships do, Brazil is a clear aggressor nation and Jânio Gotta Go, but if a French ship fires then can Brazil present this as those goddamn French coming over here, taking Brazil's stuff, and then killing people over lobster like the 19th century never ended?
 
Seems to depend on who fires - if Brazilian ships do, Brazil is a clear aggressor nation and Jânio Gotta Go, but if a French ship fires then can Brazil present this as those goddamn French coming over here, taking Brazil's stuff, and then killing people over lobster like the 19th century never ended?
True. If the French fired first, Brazil's Government likely gets a lot more stable. Assuming Janio handles the situation correctly (not a certainty). If he doesn't, his government falls early and the Generals take things from there
 
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