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WI: A *Vichy regime without Pétain?

H

Hendryk

Taken back control yet?
Published by SLP
Location
France
Frank Stora, one of the authors of the France Fights On TL, recently explained that various options had been considered regarding Pétain's role, and went on to say that removing him one way or the other before the start of the German offensive in 1940 may result in "a Vichy without Pétain--some pro-surrender politician takes over, but within the [institutional] context of the Third Republic. Said Third Republic is quickly torn between the demands of the Reich (as in "give us the Jews", "make weapons for us", "we're keeping Alsace") and its democratic nature. The Vichy dictatorship not being in place, the government falls, resulting either in a quite illegal takeover by Weygand, or in the advent of a 'resistant' government... soon deposed by the Wehrmacht, but then all the colonies and the fleet logically join the British. As usual, the possibilities of the POD are infinite."

La "suppression" de Pétain avant le 10 Mai 40 est évidemment un PoD intéressant, mais encore faut-il renforcer la résolution de Reynaud. Faute de quoi, on risque d'avoir un Vichy sans Pétain - un politique capitulard quelconque prend le pouvoir, mais dans le cadre de la Troisième.
Laquelle Troisième se retrouve vite tiraillée entre les exigences du Reich (du genre "livrez-nous les Juifs", "fabriquez-nous des armes", "l'Alsace c'est à nous") et sa nature démocratique.
La dictature vichyste n'étant pas mise en place, chute du gouvernement, conduisant, soit à la prise du pouvoir de façon pas du tout légale par un Weygand, soit à la mise en place d'un gouvernement "résistant"… bientôt mis à bas par la Wehrmacht, mais alors toutes les colonies et la flotte repassent logiquement du côté anglais.
Comme d'habitude, les possibilités de PoD sont infinies.
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To my knowledge this has never been explored. So, let's say that Pétain dies some time before 1940. The German invade on schedule, things go as in OTL, and within six weeks the French sue for an armistice. Let's say that when Reynaud steps down, the pro-surrender politician who succeeds him is Pierre-Etienne Flandin, not that it matters all that much. In the absence of a formal regime change, the French capital remains in Paris, though as in OTL its sovereignty is curtailed by German occupation of three-fifths of the country (for starters). What happens next?
 
Probably it ends up like a bigger Denmark for awhile. I wonder what its Jewish policy would be here. If the context of collaboration here is basically "the Third Republic, only with Nazis patrolling the streets," there may be some reluctance to summarily hand over what are, after all, French citizens. I mean perhaps foreign Jews are handed over, as are Spanish refugees, but it's unlikely, especially initially, that the measures Petain took as all-powerful dictator will take place initially.

Alsace is probably handed over to the Germans, which will be of course controversial.
 
Alex Richards said:
This one might actually be the crisis that leads to the 3rd Republic finally collapsing and some sort of German puppet goverment being installed.
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Perhaps, in fact, the Germans dispense with the charade of a puppet government altogether and go for direct occupation. Either way, as Frank said, the likely result is the colonies officially putting themselves under British protection.
 
Hendryk said:
Perhaps, in fact, the Germans dispense with the charade of a puppet government altogether and go for direct occupation. Either way, as Frank said, the likely result is the colonies officially putting themselves under British protection.
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There needed to be a regime in place for the Germans. Even under the direct occupation after 1942 collaborationist government was essential for the Germans to maintain control, there simply weren't enough bureaucrats, troops and police on hand for the Germans to dispense with collaboration.

Petain was broadly speaking a late arrival to French Fascism or Fascist Fellow Travelling. He didn't start assuming leadership on the French right until the late 1930s and that was really only after no one else had managed to unite the 3-6 general factions of the French Far right before him. A post-surrender regime would be inherently instable until some sort of patchwork could be assembled. Things could easily get rather Royalist. Or devolve into constant German interference because of insufficient fascism.

Regardless though it's hard to imagine a more positive outcome then IOTL no matter which collaborators come out on top, at the end of the day when much of the French Right had been going on about better Hitler then Blum no matter whos sitting at the big table there will be plenty of people in the lower or middle levels of the regime to allow the German war effort to keep on with relative ease for a couple years.
 
Hendryk said:
So, let's say that Pétain dies some time before 1940.
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An unnecessary deus ex machina; Pétain was in Madrid in 1940, as France's ambassador to Generalissimo Franco's court, and had already turned down one invitation to join the French cabinet (from then Premier Daladier); it would not have been unlikely for him to turn down another offer to join a government that he already considered doomed, particularly if he believed that he would return anyway to a defeated France to "rescue it from anarchy". Had he still been in Spain when France fell he might have been stuck there indefinitely, left in quasi-exile by Vichy's Machiavellian politicians unwilling to accept the return of an obvious rival for power.

Alternatively, rather than Pétain declining the offer, Reynold might simply never have offered him a place in cabinet in the first place. This is even more likely than Pétain turning down the second offer; Pétain had already turned down Daladier's invitation, so why bother asking him again? And Pétain had made no secret in Madrid of his belief that France would be defeated - something that Reynold was aware of prior to making his offer; if Reynold had been determined to continue the war at all costs and hadn't decided to hedge his bets by inviting Pétain back, then the Marshall would again have been left out in the cold, doomed to spend the war making gloomy observations about the state of France from the sidelines and dabbling in clandestine intrigues in Madrid. In such a scenario he would be remembered as the hero of Verdun and, his reputation untarnished by a roll in the Vichy regime, still idolised by the French people.
 
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Hendryk said:
Let's say that when Reynaud steps down, the pro-surrender politician who succeeds him is Pierre-Etienne Flandin, not that it matters all that much. In the absence of a formal regime change, the French capital remains in Paris, though as in OTL its sovereignty is curtailed by German occupation of three-fifths of the country (for starters). What happens next?
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Won't Darlan overthrow whomever takes over in 1940, or is Darlan a creature of Pétain who could be sidelined?
 
Arthur_Phuxache said:
Won't Darlan overthrow whomever takes over in 1940, or is Darlan a creature of Pétain who could be sidelined?
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There are conflicting interpretations of Darlan's character, but I think he was mostly an opportunist, and wouldn't have considered a coup on his own initiative.
 
Cook said:
An unnecessary deus ex machina; Pétain was in Madrid in 1940, as France's ambassador to Generalissimo Franco's court, and had already turned down one invitation to join the French cabinet (from then Premier Daladier); it would not have been unlikely for him to turn down another offer to join a government that he already considered doomed, particularly if he believed that he would return anyway to a defeated France to "rescue it from anarchy". Had he still been in Spain when France fell he might have been stuck there indefinitely, left in quasi-exile by Vichy's Machiavellian politicians unwilling to accept the return of an obvious rival for power.

Alternatively, rather than Pétain declining the offer, Reynold might simply never have offered him a place in cabinet in the first place. This is even more likely than Pétain turning down the second offer; Pétain had already turned down Daladier's invitation, so why bother asking him again? And Pétain had made no secret in Madrid of his belief that France would be defeated - something that Reynold was aware of prior to making his offer; if Reynold had been determined to continue the war at all costs and hadn't decided to hedge his bets by inviting Pétain back, then the Marshall would again have been left out in the cold, doomed to spend the war making gloomy observations about the state of France from the sidelines and dabbling in clandestine intrigues in Madrid. In such a scenario he would be remembered as the hero of Verdun and, his reputation untarnished by a roll in the Vichy regime, still idolised by the French people.
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If Petain is de facto in exile when France falls, could there be a possibility of him forming a government-in-exile of his own, possibly taking the role Darlan did in Operation Torch. He'd be popular with the *Vichy types in Algeria, and a way bigger figure than de Gaulle, as opposed to Darlan and Giraud. What with de Gaulle's histrionics in Morocco not long after Torch, there is the possibility that Petain forms a Free French government in Algiers in 1943. But unlike de Gaulle I can't see Petain being especially popular with the rather more left-oriented Resistance. There were hard right groups in the Resistance, and I can see Vichy figures being drawn toward Petain in a way none of them were to Darlan or Giraud, but I can see difficulties coordinating with the larger socialist and communist resistance groups when Liberation comes.
 
There was a decent stab at a TL with Foch rather than Petain running France in WW2 on AH.com but I've lost the link.
 
You might see a larger role for Jacques Doriot and his fascist French Popular Party.

Alternatively, a more Strasserite Germany (which I realise is outside the bounds of discussion) might ally with the neosocialists in the National Popular Rally as puppet leaders.
 
Walpurgisnacht said:
You might see a larger role for Jacques Doriot and his fascist French Popular Party.

Alternatively, a more Strasserite Germany (which I realise is outside the bounds of discussion) might ally with the neosocialists in the National Popular Rally as puppet leaders.
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[VIOLENTLY INHALES]
 
Hendryk said:
Frank Stora, one of the authors of the France Fights On TL, recently explained that various options had been considered regarding Pétain's role, and went on to say that removing him one way or the other before the start of the German offensive in 1940 may result in "a Vichy without Pétain--some pro-surrender politician takes over, but within the [institutional] context of the Third Republic. Said Third Republic is quickly torn between the demands of the Reich (as in "give us the Jews", "make weapons for us", "we're keeping Alsace") and its democratic nature. The Vichy dictatorship not being in place, the government falls, resulting either in a quite illegal takeover by Weygand, or in the advent of a 'resistant' government... soon deposed by the Wehrmacht, but then all the colonies and the fleet logically join the British. As usual, the possibilities of the POD are infinite."


To my knowledge this has never been explored. So, let's say that Pétain dies some time before 1940. The German invade on schedule, things go as in OTL, and within six weeks the French sue for an armistice. Let's say that when Reynaud steps down, the pro-surrender politician who succeeds him is Pierre-Etienne Flandin, not that it matters all that much. In the absence of a formal regime change, the French capital remains in Paris, though as in OTL its sovereignty is curtailed by German occupation of three-fifths of the country (for starters). What happens next?
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I always had a strange idea of having the Vichy French declare itself the 3rd French Empire and make one of those many French royal pretender the emperor, but it is a strange idea.
 
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