What would happen in the Aftermath of a French Victory in the Franco-Prussian War?

[Time Enough]

As I said in the title what would be the Aftermath of a French Victory in the Franco-Prussian War? Here are some possible ideas;

*Imperial Germany isn't created underneath a Prussian ruler and some of the Southern German decide to leave (not being fond of the Prussians), the Northern German Confederation limbs on but has to deal with discontent from the Left and Right. Possible Revolution or Coup happens before too long.

*Napoleon III is still Emperor but the problems that were hampering his Empire will likely come back again in due time. He may have to give in to demands from the Republican factions before long.

*No Commune of Paris, a number of intellectuals are still alive and Marx doesn't include some the odd ideas the Commune applied into his teachings. Marxist and Communist doctrine is quite different.

 

[SenatorChickpea]

I suppose it depends upon the nature of the victory.
A crushing Prussian defeat seems unlikely- perhaps the French manage to avoid their armies being surrounded in Metz and then the absolute disaster of Sedan. The Prussians keep winning on the field, but unlike the Austrians the French are able to keep marshalling more and more forces so that Moltke's advance bogs down.

I can actually picture a scenario where Bismarck 'wins' the defeat. After all, the French were made to look like they started the war- if the allied armies have repeatedly given the French a bloody nose and then signed a peace with minimal concessions (Who really cares about the Spanish throne? Of course we won't assert any claims to French territory) then Prussia might be able to turn around and tell the German nationalists that only by working together did they avoid true humiliation- imagine what they could do as one country!

I don't know where the symbolic site of unification would be. Not Frankfurt. Aachen, perhaps.

The Second Empire has taken a blow to its credibility anyway and will probably have to make concessions or fall. For narrative pleasure, I would actually reverse the Commune- have the Legitimists launch a botched coup that forces out Napoleon but doesn't win over the urban elites or the officer corps. The royalists end up fortifying... Versailles doesn't work. Reims maybe? Orleans? They get brutally cleared out by some Republican marshal.

The 'Last Kingdom' becomes a totemic moment of right-wing discourse, invoked by reactionary thinkers well into the twentieth century. Meanwhile, the anarchists and leftists of Paris become an important intellectual driver of a (decidedly left-liberal) Third Republic.

Well, it would be fun.

 

[Time Enough]

I can actually picture a scenario where Bismarck 'wins' the defeat. After all, the French were made to look like they started the war- if the allied armies have repeatedly given the French a bloody nose and then signed a peace with minimal concessions (Who really cares about the Spanish throne? Of course we won't assert any claims to French territory) then Prussia might be able to turn around and tell the German nationalists that only by working together did they avoid true humiliation- imagine what they could do as one country!

I don't know where the symbolic site of unification would be. Not Frankfurt. Aachen, perhaps.

Intresting, I could see as a result of this the new Germany aims it's eyes Eastward and down South to Africa to expand it's Empire and holdings, not wanting to mess with France for the time being.

Maybe it means that Bismarck isn't ousted by Wilhelm II since he plays it as "I'm the man that brought victory out of defeat, don't mess with me" as he has support of the Militaries and the Junkers. Could lead to the Bismarck family being the leaders of Imperial German politics.

Maybe the Germans try to create an alliance with Britain as well.

The 'Last Kingdom' becomes a totemic moment of right-wing discourse, invoked by reactionary thinkers well into the twentieth century. Meanwhile, the anarchists and leftists of Paris become an important intellectual driver of a (decidedly left-liberal) Third Republic.

That would have an interesting effect on Leftist politics into the 20th Century. Could lead to an earlier and more successful implementation of the Unitied Front concept since it's already been shown to work in France.

 

[MAC161]

As I said in the title what would be the Aftermath of a French Victory in the Franco-Prussian War? Here are some possible ideas;

*Imperial Germany isn't created underneath a Prussian ruler and some of the Southern German decide to leave (not being fond of the Prussians), the Northern German Confederation limbs on but has to deal with discontent from the Left and Right. Possible Revolution or Coup happens before too long.

*Napoleon III is still Emperor but the problems that were hampering his Empire will likely come back again in due time. He may have to give in to demands from the Republican factions before long.

*No Commune of Paris, a number of intellectuals are still alive and Marx doesn't include some the odd ideas the Commune applied into his teachings. Marxist and Communist doctrine is quite different.

I think the first two are possible, with some qualifications: Germany might still unify under Prussia out of a shared fear of the French, but not nearly as fast, and the southern states would retain greater independence, maybe playing Berlin against Austria-Hungary; revolution or coup doesn't seem likely, unless it's by a military figure or a rival noble family; Napoleon might remain Emperor on the basis of "winning" against Prussia, but rising dissent might force him to make major concessions to the Republicans as you suggest, or cause him to crack down and bring about another Revolution.

If the latter happens, then the Commune may well still emerge, albeit in different form. Not sure what that would mean for Marxism, but it'd be interesting if a state based on that ideology would or could arise after overthrowing the Emperor.

 

[MAC161]

Came across an essay by historian Alistair Horne, "France Turns The Other Cheek", that suggests the best course of action would've been for France to ignore the "insult" of the Ems Telegram, and make several political and diplomatic maneuvers that completely short-circuit Bismarck's plans and eventually get him tossed out. As a result, Germany isn't unified under Prussia and Napoleon doesn't abdicate, but the reforms and general goodwill throughout Europe lead to no world wars, no Cold War, and an era of unbroken peace and prosperity for all. A tad utopian, and includes some unlikely (even supernatural) elements to justify the changes, but still an entertaining read.