What if John Smith dies four years later?

[fluttersky]

Let us say John Smith gets his fatal heart attack in 1998 instead of 1994.

Suddenly a relatively new and popular Labour government is faced with a leadership election, with Margaret Beckett presumably serving as PM on an interim basis. I expect it's quite possible Tony Blair still goes for the leadership if it's a contested race, but the dynamics of it would surely be pretty different with Labour already being in government. Also, I expect it would be quite a shock for the nation to go through the death of a prime minister so soon after the death of Diana. I'm wondering just how different the Labour government would be in this world, and whether it's still likely to last until 2010.

 

[Time Enough]

So depending on the butterflies from Smith not dying, you could have Major facing his leadership challenge and due to a lack of support, stepping down (allowing Portillo to win etc.)

I expect it's quite possible Tony Blair still goes for the leadership if it's a contested race, but the dynamics of it would surely be pretty different with Labour already being in government.

Blair wouldn’t be the sparkling reformer etc. and would be dealing with the problems of actually being in government. I see the likelihood of someone like Jack Straw, Gordon Brown, Prescott and Beckett emerging as challengers over Blair, particularly with a Labour Government that has a different energy etc.

I'm wondering just how different the Labour government would be in this world, and whether it's still likely to last until 2010.

Probably not, I can see it having two terms, but the Alt 96/97 election would be likely not the immense landslide we saw in otl (still be quite large etc.)

 

[Warthog]

Probably not, I can see it having two terms, but the Alt 96/97 election would be likely not the immense landslide we saw in otl (still be quite large etc.)

Smith would still be PM for 96/97, then pass away a year or so into his second term. So the election under his successor is 2000/2001, unless they call an early election

 

[Warthog]

Someone started a timeline on the other place

 

[Time Enough]

Someone started a timeline on the other place

Do you have a link?

Smith would still be PM for 96/97, then pass away a year or so into his second term. So the election under his successor is 2000/2001, unless they call an early election

Possibly, nothing guaranteeing that Smith would have a heart attack after being in prime minister’s office (though it’s incredibly likely).

 

[Warthog]

Someone started a timeline on the other place

The one I remember was @Lord Roem 's:

A Smith Administration

From the Times: 14th May 1994 Smith Leaves Hospital The Leader of the Opposition, John Smith, has left hospital after an overnight stay in which he was treated for what is believed to be a minor heart attack. Although Mr. Smith has been ordered to remain out of the Commons for the next week...

www.alternatehistory.com

There's this one also

John Smith, 51st Prime Minister of Britain

My timeline for John Smith surviving his heart attack.

www.alternatehistory.com

 

[Lord Roem]

The one I remember was @Lord Roem 's:

A Smith Administration

From the Times: 14th May 1994 Smith Leaves Hospital The Leader of the Opposition, John Smith, has left hospital after an overnight stay in which he was treated for what is believed to be a minor heart attack. Although Mr. Smith has been ordered to remain out of the Commons for the next week...

www.alternatehistory.com

There's this one also

John Smith, 51st Prime Minister of Britain

My timeline for John Smith surviving his heart attack.

www.alternatehistory.com

It absolutely wasn't that one. My one was juvenilia and shit.

Fairly sure the one you'll be interested in is @Elektronaut's Rebuilding Jeruselam.

 

[Meadow]

The 4 years in between are really crucial – without the Granita Pact, does Blair just eclipse Brown even more, year by year, as The Next Leader? That's what Blair expected to do and Smith's sudden death just forced the issue and forced the deal. Or do Smith and Brown's close relationship, and the latter's status as shadow chancellor and then chancellor, mean the cycle reverses and Blair's moment in the sun in the early 90s was just that, a moment – imagine how we'd react now if we found out 'did you know that in 2018, Dan Jarvis offered Keir Starmer a deal to be his chancellor if Starmer got on board with his growing popularity?'

It's not hugely likely, given Blair's assets and Brown's weaknesses, notably the media savvy of both men. But four years of Shadow Home Secretary Blair and one year of Home Secretary Blair does present a few speed bumps Bambi could easily have tripped over.

Another sobering thing to consider is that if the election got closer, Smith (who had heart difficulties before) would likely get some serious examinations in private and there may be an actual succession agreed, at least within Labour. That has constitutional implications.

So a few things to play with – even if history rattles back onto familiar tracks, Blair with no Brown deal is itself a massive shift in the last couple of decades of politics.

 

[Warthog]

Fairly sure the one you'll be interested in is @Elektronaut's Rebuilding Jeruselam

Thanks
That's this one

Building Jerusalem Mk2.0

I shall not cease from mental fight Nor shall my sword sleep in my hand 'till we have built Jerusalem In England's green and pleasant land - Jerusalem “Will Labour ever win an election again?”, people were asking. Many thought that under the current electoral system, it couldn’t be done...

www.alternatehistory.com

 

[Elektronaut]

Fairly sure the one you'll be interested in is @Elektronaut's Rebuilding Jeruselam.

That's kind. I wrote it a long time ago though and I wouldn't want to think it was the definitive tackling of this.

I don't think Brown or Blair would last very long in government, though for different reasons.

 

[Thande]

I don't think Brown or Blair would last very long in government, though for different reasons.

This was the consensus when the Beeb had a panel of people on a late-night discussion programme (can't remember what) tackle this question, they thought Blair would have left politics before too long.

 

[Callan]

This was the consensus when the Beeb had a panel of people on a late-night discussion programme (can't remember what) tackle this question, they thought Blair would have left politics before too long.

I think Blair could get quite quickly get chewed up and spat out by the late-nineties internal dysfunction of the Home Office (or the Foreign Office, which feels like a better fit for him). I think if he were a frontbencher for long enough he would almost certainly get caught up in a very embarrassing financial scandal.

Brown I think might simply lose interest in frontline politics, presuming he doesn’t at some point fall out with Smith. Suspect if his personal life looks similar to OTL he’d happily take an NGO posting somewhere in the early 2000s.

A Smith succession with no Blair and no Brown, that could be interesting.

 

[Time Enough]

A Smith succession with no Blair and no Brown, that could be interesting.

I do wonder who else could emerge as front runners other than otl, also you could have some amusing attempts by folks like Peter Hain running on a radical soft left platform.

 

[Doctor Sulemain]

I do wonder who else could emerge as front runners other than otl, also you could have some amusing attempts by folks like Peter Hain running on a radical soft left platform.

Margarett Beckett?

 

[Doctor Sulemain]

That's kind. I wrote it a long time ago though and I wouldn't want to think it was the definitive tackling of this.

I don't think Brown or Blair would last very long in government, though for different reasons.

Hang on, you used to go by V-J?

 

[Warthog]

Hang on, you used to go by V-J?

Sule level: Doc!

 

[AH Layard]

I do wonder who else could emerge as front runners other than otl, also you could have some amusing attempts by folks like Peter Hain running on a radical soft left platform.

I’d imagine Beckett, Prescott, Dobson, Straw, and Cook could be options. Maybe Chris Smith.

 

[Time Enough]

Maybe Chris Smith.

I have never considered Chris Smith but that’s an incredibly interesting idea. I do feel like Beckett or Straw would be the strongest candidates to say the least. Maybe Cook if there isn’t the whole ‘andsome’ factor to British politics.

 

[AH Layard]

I have never considered Chris Smith but that’s an incredibly interesting idea. I do feel like Beckett or Straw would be the strongest candidates to say the least. Maybe Cook if there isn’t the whole ‘andsome’ factor to British politics.

It probably would have been too early for a gay and HIV+ man to become PM in the 1990s/2000s sadly, but his sacking in 2001 was a shame, he would have been a good minister for the rest of Labour’s tenure. Fell through the cracks of the Blairite/Brownite wars.

 

[Time Enough]

It probably would have been too early for a gay and HIV+ man to become PM in the 1990s/2000s sadly, but his sacking in 2001 was a shame, he would have been a good minister for the rest of Labour’s tenure. Fell through the cracks of the Blairite/Brownite wars.

Yeah, I could certainly see him as a potential deputy leader at best, but he’s certainly someone that is ignored in the grand scheme of things (which is a shame given how he was one of the better cultural ministers we’ve had).