Jackson Lennock
Well-known member
If the PLO and its allies had taken control of Jordan in the Black September War - what happens to the West Bank?
During the OTL Black September War, the Israelis were internally sort of divided about what to do. On the one hand, Hussein was preferable strategically and the Israelis operated under the assumption at the time that they would eventually hand back most of the West Bank to him (the Allon Plan, for example, involved Israel retaining a third at most). The modern settler movement did not begin until 1977.
On the other hand, some figured a Palestinian State in Jordan would relieve pressure on Israel to have a Palestinian State in the lands they captured. This is not to say expulsion was the name of the game. Israelis seemed to want some kind of autonomy under an Israeli security umbrella would have been the potential alternative (a possibility considered by Levi Eshkol and later Menachem Begin). In this vein, the Israelis set up municipal elections in 1976 in the hope of establishing self-rule ... with the result being that Palestinian Nationalist parties won overwhelmingly.
Ultimately, the Israelis chose to support Hussein. In so doing, the Israelis prioritized their relationship with the Americans (who couldn't do much directly themselves) and chose a strategy of peace through relationships with non-revolutionary Arab States. But in doing so, they also chose relationships with Arab States over the alternative of building relationships with the people on the ground. Anything the Israelis might have done in the West Bank to promote self-rule would have been seen by Jordanians as schemes to permanently separate the West Bank from them, for example. But the Israelis didn't know if peace was ever going to happen with Jordan, on what terms, peace might be made with Jordan, or if King Hussein's regime would remain even if the West Bank were returned to it in a peace deal (with the concern being that Syria or someone like Suleiman Nabulsi would take over and form a relationship with the Soviet Union). So the Israelis they built settlements out of a mix of wanting to improve their situation on the ground if a peace deal was made, out of a desire to secure control of territory on the intermediary, out of a desire to secure their hold in the circumstance that Jordan's King was overthrown, and out of a desire to simply keep the territory (since, as a Democracy, there's a range of different groups supporting a similar policy for similar and differing reasons).
I imagine there would be some sort of exodus from Jordan. OTL the PLO forces went to Lebanon. TTL the alternative (a mix of Bedouin, moderate-to-conservative pro-Hashemite Palestinians, Circassian Jordanians, Armenian Jordanians, Hashemite clan members, etc.) would have to go someplace instead.The Saudis, Syrians, Lebanese (who under the 1969 Cairo Agreement have 1/3 of their country occupied by the PLO), Kuwaitis, Egyptians, etc. won't want them. Perhaps Oman or the Trucial States (soon to be UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain) could host them. Alternatively, a Hashemite government in exile might be more inclined to accept the Israelis' Allon Plan proposal or use it as basis of negotiation.
In the interim - from 1970 onwards - the Palestinians (or "East Palestinians") would continue the War of Attrition from the so-called Jordanian Golan (Gilead Heights, Karak, As Salt) as well as Lebanon. And Israel OTL drafted plans to move into Gilead Heights, Karak, and Aqaba if Jordan collapsed and a land grab emerged (As Salt was the province Karameh was in, which the Israelis raided in 1968). They attacked Israeli communities east of the Galilee before Black September, so I suspect that would continue. The Yom Kippur War would include "East Palestine" as well as the Iraqis who now have a direct route to attack Israel on another front. An alternative Yom Kippur War (if Israel wins) could see an occupation of the Jordanian Golan as well. Or an objective might be to establish a Transjordanian foothold for the Hashemites to reassert themselves.
If the Hashemites are gone for good as a peace option, I suspect the Israelis might just do something unilaterally like they did with East Jerusalem historically. Ben Gurion felt the only three areas Israel could never surrender in a peace deal were East Jerusalem, the Golan, and Hebron. Moshe Dayan wanted to extend citizenship to a "Greater Jerusalem" comprised of East Jerusalem, Ramallah, and Bethlehem and have the urban region of Nablus and Jenin as a dedicated Palestinian region (what his thoughts were on Hebron, I am unsure). On the other hand, there's the situation of Muhammad Ali Ja'abari, Mayor of Hebron who was proposed as the Prime Minister of a hypothetical Palestinian State and who opposed the Fedayeen.
During the OTL Black September War, the Israelis were internally sort of divided about what to do. On the one hand, Hussein was preferable strategically and the Israelis operated under the assumption at the time that they would eventually hand back most of the West Bank to him (the Allon Plan, for example, involved Israel retaining a third at most). The modern settler movement did not begin until 1977.
On the other hand, some figured a Palestinian State in Jordan would relieve pressure on Israel to have a Palestinian State in the lands they captured. This is not to say expulsion was the name of the game. Israelis seemed to want some kind of autonomy under an Israeli security umbrella would have been the potential alternative (a possibility considered by Levi Eshkol and later Menachem Begin). In this vein, the Israelis set up municipal elections in 1976 in the hope of establishing self-rule ... with the result being that Palestinian Nationalist parties won overwhelmingly.
Ultimately, the Israelis chose to support Hussein. In so doing, the Israelis prioritized their relationship with the Americans (who couldn't do much directly themselves) and chose a strategy of peace through relationships with non-revolutionary Arab States. But in doing so, they also chose relationships with Arab States over the alternative of building relationships with the people on the ground. Anything the Israelis might have done in the West Bank to promote self-rule would have been seen by Jordanians as schemes to permanently separate the West Bank from them, for example. But the Israelis didn't know if peace was ever going to happen with Jordan, on what terms, peace might be made with Jordan, or if King Hussein's regime would remain even if the West Bank were returned to it in a peace deal (with the concern being that Syria or someone like Suleiman Nabulsi would take over and form a relationship with the Soviet Union). So the Israelis they built settlements out of a mix of wanting to improve their situation on the ground if a peace deal was made, out of a desire to secure control of territory on the intermediary, out of a desire to secure their hold in the circumstance that Jordan's King was overthrown, and out of a desire to simply keep the territory (since, as a Democracy, there's a range of different groups supporting a similar policy for similar and differing reasons).
I imagine there would be some sort of exodus from Jordan. OTL the PLO forces went to Lebanon. TTL the alternative (a mix of Bedouin, moderate-to-conservative pro-Hashemite Palestinians, Circassian Jordanians, Armenian Jordanians, Hashemite clan members, etc.) would have to go someplace instead.The Saudis, Syrians, Lebanese (who under the 1969 Cairo Agreement have 1/3 of their country occupied by the PLO), Kuwaitis, Egyptians, etc. won't want them. Perhaps Oman or the Trucial States (soon to be UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain) could host them. Alternatively, a Hashemite government in exile might be more inclined to accept the Israelis' Allon Plan proposal or use it as basis of negotiation.
In the interim - from 1970 onwards - the Palestinians (or "East Palestinians") would continue the War of Attrition from the so-called Jordanian Golan (Gilead Heights, Karak, As Salt) as well as Lebanon. And Israel OTL drafted plans to move into Gilead Heights, Karak, and Aqaba if Jordan collapsed and a land grab emerged (As Salt was the province Karameh was in, which the Israelis raided in 1968). They attacked Israeli communities east of the Galilee before Black September, so I suspect that would continue. The Yom Kippur War would include "East Palestine" as well as the Iraqis who now have a direct route to attack Israel on another front. An alternative Yom Kippur War (if Israel wins) could see an occupation of the Jordanian Golan as well. Or an objective might be to establish a Transjordanian foothold for the Hashemites to reassert themselves.
If the Hashemites are gone for good as a peace option, I suspect the Israelis might just do something unilaterally like they did with East Jerusalem historically. Ben Gurion felt the only three areas Israel could never surrender in a peace deal were East Jerusalem, the Golan, and Hebron. Moshe Dayan wanted to extend citizenship to a "Greater Jerusalem" comprised of East Jerusalem, Ramallah, and Bethlehem and have the urban region of Nablus and Jenin as a dedicated Palestinian region (what his thoughts were on Hebron, I am unsure). On the other hand, there's the situation of Muhammad Ali Ja'abari, Mayor of Hebron who was proposed as the Prime Minister of a hypothetical Palestinian State and who opposed the Fedayeen.
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