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The World Barry Goldwater Didn't Make

Aznavour

Well-known member
Published by SLP
One historical figure I've hardly ever seen used to his full potential is the famous and infamous Barry Goldwater, harbinger of sorts for the modern Republican Party and the Conservative Turn that Nixon and Reagan made into a reality in the second half of the Twentieth Century. Despite being a fervent anti-New Deal Crusader and Standard Bearer of the Conservative Coalition who didn't think much of threatening to use Nuclear Weapons, I don't think I've ever seen him use in the same way, say, Enoch Powell, Oswald Mosley, George Wallace or even Donald Rumsfeld. (Although admittedly, that might be because I don't read enough AH these days.) Even in For All Time his presidency was kind of an afterthought. (In that case that was probably the point, though, to show how figures like Goldwater and their cavalier thoughts on Atom Bomb Usage became mainstream in that world)

So, first things first, how to get this nebbish, barely-more-charismatic-than-Adlai-Stevenson-and-just-as-handsome, Algebra Teacher-looking fellow from Arizona elected to the Presidency of the United States?

Let's say than instead of creating a scenario in which the Barry Goldwaters of the world are normalized, ala For All Time, we stick to thinking inside the box and look at the three presidential elections in the 1960s:

1. 1960: barely over 50 and with less than 8 years in the Senate, he was nevertheless already famous as the new Robert Taft, being the voice of the Conservative Wing of the Republican Party, defender of McCarthy and critic of the Eisenhower Administration. Options could include either California senator William Knowland staying in the senate and opposing Nixon for the Republican nomination (IOTL he tried and failed to become Governor of California to achieve this) or Nelson Rockefeller doing the same and throwing the primaries and convention in disarray, allowing Dark Horse Goldwater to slip through the cracks.

An easier way might be to just have Nixon slip in the bathtub sometime before 1960 and have Goldwater barely squeak by Rockefeller.

His criticism of the Eisenhower administration and being 4 years earlier in the Civil Rights debate might mean that his Conservative, States' Rights message is less potent than IOTL 1964, though.

2. 1964: in a world in which John F. Kennedy had lived and Goldwater's dream of facing him had come true, there's still the issue of Kennedy being young, handsome and the ideal of what John Q. Taxpayer thinks a man should be, not to mention his approval rating was around 60% at the time of his death. So hard, but not slightly less hard than facing Johnson in 64 IOTL.

3. 1968: Just as 1960, this one was pretty close in the general and could have gone either way. Perhaps if Goldwater had left 1964 to Rockefeller and Lodge and instead runs in 68 as the Stop-Nixon Candidate. Goldwater's Hawkish policy in the year of the Tet Offensive and the possible presence of George Wallace as the Southern Candidate probably hurt him too much, though.

Each scenario has its own difficulties, as we can see, specially things like Goldwater's super-hawkish policies and thinking that Nuclear Weapons should be dished out like candy, which made painting him like a dangerous extremist rather easy. This would probably need some Nixon/Kennedy level of rat-fucking, or an extremely fractured Democratic Opposition, which, thankfully for our purposes, existed in both 1960 and 1968.

Each scenario also has its own potential for some very dystopic stuff.

If Goldwater were to be elected in 1960, his attempts at rollbacking would face stiff opposition from a Democratic Congress (Goldwater was never going to be the guy to carry his party in that regard), he would have done far less than Kennedy, Eisenhower or Nixon on the Civil Rights front and his Aggressive Foreign Policy would have surely led to confrontations with the USSR and China at Berlin, Cuba, Vietnam and who knows where else.

1964 and 1968 offer their own little nightmares. Assuming the Defense Department convinces Goldwater not to use Nuclear Weapons (or that he was speaking in the abstract when he made all those remarks and speeches), there'd still be escalation in Vietnam, with the addendum that Goldwater would probably lack Nixon's pragmatism, so leaving would have to be the job of the next President. And that's without getting into Israel and the Middle East,.

More importantly, Goldwater would not have gone to China, as Nixon did, so Taiwan remains as the One China, as far as the West is concerned, with all that entails for China and the World. It's hard to say whether the Democratic and Republican Presidents to replace Goldwater in the 70s and 80s would have handled China.

On the domestic front, there's still the Civil Rights issues, and things that Nixon did that Goldwater wouldn't have done. OSHA, the EPA, the Clean Air Act, the Philadelphia Plan, certain Civil Rights measures like the busing thing. On the other hand, a world in which Barry Goldwater is president might not have seen the Drug War become a thing under his watch.



What's the world that Barry Goldwater could have made had he achieved the highest office of his land? A more conflictive, dangerous place, more likely. A more interesting one, certainly.


Naturally, getting Goldwater that far in the first place requires a certain degree of handwaving. There's a reason, after all, guys like him and Adlai Stevenson didn't make it to the presidency.
 
Goldwater was strongly anti-drugs in this period. Don't confuse his 'Bob, are we the moderates now?' retirement period with his actual political career. He wasn't a Libertarian in the sixties. He was a straight-down-the-line right-winger.

He was also about as strongly in favour of the continuance of segregation, as his staked out political position, as it was possible for a non-southern doughface of the period to be.

I think his best chance is as the standard-bearer of the right in '68, after a deadlocked nomination in '64 which produces Nixon, who gets beat pretty solidly. (I think Wallace running in '64 in this scenario helps Goldwater's narrative in '68) So Nixon is out for '68. Even then, there's room for Romney or someone else. If he makes it to the general he'd have all his liabilities that he had in '64, his positions would be as freshly extreme as they were in '64, and, importantly, he has to totally avoid any kind of 'We need to surge in 'Nam'-style stuff. He's sunk if he indulges himself by going down that route. He has to run something analogous to the vagueries of what Nixon produced IOTL.

Difficult. Probably very difficult, considering Goldwater, and how narrow that race was IOTL. But it's still his best shot. And, OTOH, he will have no Wallace, and the south backing him to the hilt.
 
Thinking again about 1968 and the anti-Nixon movement. If Tricky Dick had not been there, and with a hard-right candidacy robbing Wallace of any momentum, let’s assume Goldwater is the candidate of the so-called silent majority in 68 and is elected president for 1969-1973/77. Not sure what would happen with Vietnam or Paris, presumably the accords fail for different reasons.

So, what do we get? A more staunchly anti-communist administration with little interest in deténte with either Moscow or Beijing, or a negotiated exit to Vietnam. Civil Rights would suffer a setback, and Goldwater might be openly in conflict with congress. No EPA or SALT or affirmative action, not sure if a Goldwater Shock would be closer to Reaganomics or not.
 
I understand Goldwater using nukes is an easy way to get a boring, lazy Cold War USpol dystopia, but it is still an interesting and relevant question in this context. Obviously, out of every major politician in the 1960s who could've become President, Goldwater was the likeliest to use nuclear weapons on Vietnam. If so, where will the nuke(s) be sent to? How many will be launched? How does this impact Vietnam and how does this impact the Cold War from then on? I don't think he'll use it on any city, probably somewhere here instead. Also unlikely that he uses more than two or so nukes because anything more and either China or the USSR assumes that a full on onslaught is on the way and launches their own arsenal.
 
I understand Goldwater using nukes is an easy way to get a boring, lazy Cold War USpol dystopia, but it is still an interesting and relevant question in this context. Obviously, out of every major politician in the 1960s who could've become President, Goldwater was the likeliest to use nuclear weapons on Vietnam. If so, where will the nuke(s) be sent to? How many will be launched? How does this impact Vietnam and how does this impact the Cold War from then on? I don't think he'll use it on any city, probably somewhere here instead. Also unlikely that he uses more than two or so nukes because anything more and either China or the USSR assumes that a full on onslaught is on the way and launches their own arsenal.
A President Goldwater might give Westmoreland the go ahead on something like Fracture Jaw.
 
I understand Goldwater using nukes is an easy way to get a boring, lazy Cold War USpol dystopia, but it is still an interesting and relevant question in this context. Obviously, out of every major politician in the 1960s who could've become President, Goldwater was the likeliest to use nuclear weapons on Vietnam. If so, where will the nuke(s) be sent to? How many will be launched? How does this impact Vietnam and how does this impact the Cold War from then on? I don't think he'll use it on any city, probably somewhere here instead. Also unlikely that he uses more than two or so nukes because anything more and either China or the USSR assumes that a full on onslaught is on the way and launches their own arsenal.

Yeah, that's going to leave an indelible mark on Cambodia, if that's the target on a country scarred by land mines and unexploded ordnance. God help the poor villages around that area. I would think like it could be like a normalization of Tacnukes in Vietnam tier conflicts or the next adminstration would try and walk it back but precedent has been set.
 
What happens if Goldwater drops a 'tactical' nuke on North Vietnam and Hanoi & the Vietcong don't give up? Is he likely to keep dropping them in drips and drabs until it works?
 
What happens if Goldwater drops a 'tactical' nuke on North Vietnam and Hanoi & the Vietcong don't give up? Is he likely to keep dropping them in drips and drabs until it works?

If that happens, that would be a good way to have a Sino-Soviet reconcilation that and the fact Goldwater is probably going to be seeing them as mindless commies or something.
 
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