ChrisNuttall
Well-known member
Two points:
First, this was inspired by the earlier Munich discussions on this board here - https://forum.sealionpress.co.uk/in...ions-of-an-allied-victory-in-a-1938-war.6574/
Second, absolutely nothing here is intended to be controversial in any way.
Part One:
The Munich War and Aftermath (Part I)
Sir Humphrey Appleby: [Munich] occurred before certain important facts were known, and couldn't happen again.
James Hacker: What important facts?
Sir Humphrey Appleby: Well, that Hitler wanted to conquer Europe.
James Hacker: I thought that everybody knew that.
Sir Humphrey Appleby: Not the Foreign Office.
What Really Happened:
The appeasers of Adolf Hitler have gone down in history as weak and foolish men, and to a very great extent that is exactly what they were. Chamberlain et al were unable to comprehend Hitler’s willingness to bluff, his determination to actually have a war (to the point he was bitterly disappointed when Chamberlain gave him everything he said he wanted), and the fact there was nothing they could give Hitler that would quench his thirst for war. That said, they were also very aware that a long war on the same scale as WW1 would be utterly disastrous for Europe, and hypnotised by the (illusionary) German military might. The Treaty of Munich might have made sense to a western European statesman, but very little sense to anyone else and it was incredible foolish from nearly any other point of view.
Chamberlain did succeed in cutting the ground from under Hitler’s feet, briefly, but Hitler soon recovered and went on to plunge the world into war the following year. It was arguably the single worst foreign policy mistake in modern British history, with repercussions that continue to echo to this day.
What Might Have Happened?
Hitler gets greedy.
Like I said above, Hitler was the only person in 1938 who genuinely wanted the war. He believed, at least at first, that Chamberlain and the rest of the appeasers would stand up to him, surviving a trigger for the war he wanted so much. It must have been a surprise to him when Chamberlain gave him what he wanted on a silver platter, citing Germany’s legitimate claims as an excuse for giving in. And yes, there were quite a few legitimate claims. But those claims did not include the whole of Czechoslovakia and in this timeline, Hitler decides to demand that all of Czechoslovakia is surrendered to Germany.
This is too much, even for Chamberlain. The Czechs themselves had to be forced to concede the territory they surrendered in OTL, and that was suicide given that it handed over their main defence line to Germans. The idea of giving up their entire country is completely unreasonable, clear proof that whatever they say or do Hitler had no intention of respecting their independence any longer than it suited him to do so. Chamberlain could sell Munich to the British Parliament by insisting Germany was only receiving its legitimate claims, but Hitler has now cut the ground out from under his feet by demanding something that he has no claim to. Chamberlain now looks foolish as well as pacifistic, and his rivals - such as Churchill - are using it to prove that there is nothing to be gained by trying to appease Adolf Hitler. In a sense, the anti-German backlash that was fuelled by Hitler’s seizure of the remainder of Czechoslovakia in OTL 1939 has come early.
Czechoslovakia flatly refuses to concede anything to Adolf Hitler. The Poles - who historically took a section of Czechoslovakia for themselves - put their disputes with the Czechs aside and start preparing for war, reasoning that a man that Hitler has to be stopped sooner rather than later. The French suffer a series of political upheavals as it becomes clear that there will be war, if Hitler doesn’t back down, and it isn’t clear to outsiders who is going to win.
Hitler has a choice - he can concede defeat, and admit he went too far too fast, or he can risk war with Czechoslovakia and gamble Poland and France will not intervene. He is not the kind of person to concede defeat, even if Germany could afford to do so. The Nazi economic miracle is nothing of the sort - the Germans need to loot more and more territories in order to keep their economy going, or they will face massive shortfalls that will cripple their rearmament programme. Worse, from Hitler’s point of view, there are plenty of people within the Reich’s government that would happily put a knife in his back if he took a pratfall. The myth of the Fuhrer’s infallibility has not yet taken off, certainly not to the degree it did after OTL Munich. And he is convinced that Germany can win a short victorious war.
The Germans build up along the Czechoslovakia border. They make a big show of their power, displaying tanks and aircraft to intimidate the Czechs. This display is nothing more than a façade; the Germans simply don’t have the men and machines for anything other than a very short conflict, not least because they have troops and aircraft in Spain fighting for Franco. Hitler does start bringing back some of those men, but logistics are not Germany’s strong point and shipping them home takes time he doesn’t have. He is painfully aware that time is ticking away. The French may not have the political nerve to stand up to him, he thinks, but they do have a powerful army and sooner or later someone with more nerve will take the lead in France. Hitler needs to act fast, or not at all.
Hitler launches the invasion after a final attempt to intimidate the Czechs. The Germans make good progress at first, but they rapidly run into heavy defences that slow them down and force them to expend ammunition they simply don’t have in vast quantities. The Czechs have some minor problems with Germans in Czechoslovakia, but many of them remain loyal now their country has been attacked. The German offensive slows as the inefficiencies in the German war machine make themselves manifest, with numerous tanks destroyed or disabled through a shortfall of spare parts. German aircraft prove themselves to be pretty good, but the tactic of sowing panic doesn’t work so well when the target doesn’t have anywhere to run. The Germans rapidly find themselves grinding to a halt, no matter how much Hitler encourages his men to keep advancing. No matter what he does, he cannot hide the fact that Germany is no longer advancing in Czechoslovakia.
The war galvanises both Poland and France. The Poles are caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. They have Hitler to the west and Stalin to the east. The Poles suspect that it is only a matter of time before Stalin attacks them, and that committing themselves to a major offensive against Nazi Germany would weaken the defences in the east and invite Stalin to invade. That limits the amount of force they can deploy against Nazi Germany. On the other hand, they will never have a better chance to put Hitler down before it’s too late. The French are initially unenthusiastic about war, but as it becomes clear that Germany is nowhere near as powerful as they believed they get more inclined to intervene.
The Poles attack East Prussia. The Germans cry foul - the Poles didn’t bother with a declaration of war - but they are largely ignored. The defences are weak as Hitler has drained down most of the troops for the invasion of Czechoslovakia, and the fixed defences are insufficient to do more than slow the Poles, and the German line rapidly crumbles. Thousands of German start fleeing West, encouraged - to some degree - by Polish troops. The Poles do not particularly want to uproot vast numbers of Germans, but the risk of having a German minority in their land that could be used as an excuse for war by a later German leader is too dangerous. Hitler orders immediate counter-attacks out of East Germany, but the Germans do not have the resources to do more than bomb a handful of Polish cities. The effects are nowhere near drastic as they were in Spain, and the Poles take heart.
The French, backed by a largely token British force, invade the Rhineland. The advance is slow at first, delayed by German irregulars and French logistics inefficiencies, but rapidly picks up speed as it becomes clear the Germans have nothing more than skeleton forces in the region. Hitler attempts to pull back troops from Czechoslovakia to block the French, and what he thinks is a full-scale invasion from the east (actually, nothing more than Polish cavalry raids), but the Germans have already expended most of their ammunition and mobile units. The Germans can no longer carry out a proper mobile defence, nor do they have the numbers to set up trenches and force the French to storm them one by one. Ironically, the war the French fight is the war they prepared for, slow offences rather than lightning strikes intended to shatter enemy lines and advance through the gap, sowing panic in the rear. They are slowed more by their own logistics failings than German resistance.
Hitler intends to keep fighting. He is encouraged by suggestions that Italy is going to put together a peace conference that will allow Germany to survive with honour. This is nothing more than self-delusion and the smarter German military leaders know it. The war is lost, and Germany is heading towards a defeat that will make 1918 look like a minor setback, rather than total disaster. They put together a coup, and launch it with what forces they have on hand. There is a brief period of confusion in Berlin, with fighting between the SS - such as it was in 1938 - and the German military, before the diehard Nazis are killed or forced to run for their lives. Hitler himself is evacuated by his bodyguard as troops storm the Reichstag, and flown to Switzerland. The Swiss aren’t too keen on giving him asylum, but he is safe for the moment. The new military government is quietly pleased with the outcome. A Hitler who fled is far less dangerous than a prisoner or a dead man who committed suicide by shooting himself in the back. Going into exile discredits Hitler more than anything they could do.
The new military government reaches out to the Allies and requests an armistice, all the while pulling back its troops into more defensible positions and doing what it can to prepare to continue the war if the allies refuse to come to reasonable terms. The military government does not expect to be treated gently, but it dares not risk another Versailles. There is a limit to how much they can blame on the exiled Hitler, and the longer it takes put together a peace treaty the more the new government will take the blame.
The allies themselves are also keen to end the war, although for different reasons. The British and French can afford a short victorious war, but a long drawn-out conflict will be utterly disastrous even if they win. The Czechs want to get the Germans out of their territory and the Poles want to secure their claim to East Prussia, while avoiding a conflict that might invite Stalin to intervene. There are some disputes between the allies, particularly over avoiding another Versailles that would encourage a revanchist German government a decade in the future, but eventually an agreement is hammered out and presented to the Germans.
The terms are surprisingly light. Germany will formally concede all claims to German territory and Germanic populations outside Germany itself. Germany will also concede East Prussia to Poland and demilitarise the Rhineland (again), as well as accepting more reasonable limits on her military power. The Czechs will receive a certain amount of reparations from the Germans, but otherwise the Germans will not have to pay anything to the victorious powers. While some people arguing that Germany should pay for the war, wiser heads point out that Germany is in no condition to pay much of anything - the collapse of the German economy is now all too clear - and demanding payment didn’t work out too well the last time. The German military government grits its teeth and accepts the terms. They are too much the realists to believe there’s anything to be gained by continuing the war.
The aftermath of the war, in Germany, is murky. The Nazi Regime has been effectively destroyed, and the economy has collapsed, which encourages more violence against Jews and others blamed for the crisis even though Hitler is now in comfortable exile. A sizeable number of Germans and Germanics have been evicted from East Prussia and Czechoslovakia, forcing the German state to house and resettle them. The government, desperate for cash, sells tanks and aircraft to other powers, including the Poles (ironically) and the Chinese. They also allow a number of German officers who were a little too close regime for comfort to go into exile themselves, taking their experience to the Chinese, Turks, Iranians, or other powers interested in building up their military power. Germany does not have a great reputation in this timeline, but it is generally agreed that German aircraft and tanks were very good even though they lost the war.
Outside Germany, the results are much better. Chamberlain’s government has staggered on, largely because there isn’t any real opposition. Churchill is now Minister of Defence and angling for the Prime Minister’s job, and he might just get it because Churchill saw through Hitler’s bluff a long time before anyone else. The new French government is much more bullish, now is fought and won a war with Germany and both France and Britain are enjoying a surge of confidence. The war did some economic damage, but nothing they can’t handle. Indeed, for both countries, the fighting helped bring the empires close together, although that will not last long.
The Poles and Czechs are still not very fond of each other, but they have formed a tight alliance out of fear of a rejuvenated Germany or abandonment by the Western allies. The polls work hard to turn East Prussia into another part of Poland, deporting many Germans who refuse to take Polish citizenship or were involved in the Nazi regime. They have become increasingly aware of the horrors of Nazi regime, and they’re determined to make sure there is no resurgence. They are also deeply concerned about the prospect of a war with the Soviet Union. They do not allow themselves any illusions about Stalin, or the manpower at his disposal.
Stalin himself is irked by the outcome. He had hoped that Western Europe would destroy itself, allowing the Russians a chance to walk in and simply take over. The prospect of a grand capitalistic alliance looms large in his paranoia, encouraging him to pull back from Spain and start preparing defences for a prospective attack from the West. The Soviets continue building up their military, but have fewer plans to risk an invasion of Poland and Germany.
The United States barely takes any notice of the war. The US has seen a slight economic upturn through military orders being placed in American factories by Britain and France, but otherwise is very little affected. United States is more concerned about Japan in the Far East than (the now defunct) Nazi Germany or the USSR.
The Japanese, at first, take little notice of the war too. The Japanese are trying desperately to drive the Chinese Nationalists out of the war, or at least force them to come to terms. The Japanese have the edge on the ground, and they have done immense damage to the Chinese army at the Battle of Shanghai, but the sheer size of China makes it impossible for them to bring the Chinese to a final decisive battle. They can beat the Chinese army in the field, yet they cannot keep Chinese insurgents from harassing their forces and targeting their supply lines. As the ramifications of the Munich War continue to spread, the Japanese discover the exiled Germans have been training the Chinese in use of modern weapons and tactics, making the Chinese War far more costly for Japan. The Japanese are not on the verge of losing - yet - but a long drawn out conflict is not in their interests. They are becoming increasingly aware that the British and French can afford to send more troops to the Far East, now the threat of a major European war has receded. The prospect of economic sanctions, as reports of Japanese atrocities continue to spread, cannot be dismissed. Japan is slowly becoming aware that is caught in a deadly trap. If the British and French - and perhaps the Americans - start tightening the economic noose, Japan will have no choice but to fight or effectively herself on the mercy of the western powers.
Military officers across the globe study the fighting in hopes of determining what lessons can be learnt from the brief war. Their conclusions are somewhat mixed. They believe that tanks have their value of the modern battlefield, but the idea of a lightning strike through the lines appears to have been discredited. The value of fixed defences appears to have been proven, although the Czechs have the advantage of terrain and the opponent who simply didn’t have the supplies for a long conflict. Airpower has proven its value, but bombing cities is no longer so feared and the dangers of aircraft harrying retreating troops is grossly underestimated. Most powers start improving their anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons, including designs that can be used for both purposes.
The fighting in Spain splutters on, now that German troops and aircraft have been withdrawn. Mussolini continues to back Franco, but the Italian contribution is becoming increasingly expensive and showing no real return. The British and French are much more aggressive about enforcing the blockade now, making it harder for the Italians to openly support Franco and causing dissidents in Italy to question the wisdom of the Spanish involvement and, in fact, the wisdom of Mussolini himself. Franco still has a slight edge over his opponents, but with the prospect of the French supporting the Republicans in Spain looming on the horizon he can no longer sure of victory. The prospect of Italy frittering away what little military power it has, preventing them from causing trouble elsewhere, suits the British and French just fine.
In mid/late 1939, European statesmen have good reason to believe the world is going their way. Germany has been taught a salutary lesson. Italy is no real threat without Germany and Mussolini seems intent on making it much less a threat anyway. The Soviet Union is a long way away, and Japan is deeply enmeshed in China. There appear to be no threats on the horizon. And then, everything changes …
First, this was inspired by the earlier Munich discussions on this board here - https://forum.sealionpress.co.uk/in...ions-of-an-allied-victory-in-a-1938-war.6574/
Second, absolutely nothing here is intended to be controversial in any way.
Part One:
The Munich War and Aftermath (Part I)
Sir Humphrey Appleby: [Munich] occurred before certain important facts were known, and couldn't happen again.
James Hacker: What important facts?
Sir Humphrey Appleby: Well, that Hitler wanted to conquer Europe.
James Hacker: I thought that everybody knew that.
Sir Humphrey Appleby: Not the Foreign Office.
What Really Happened:
The appeasers of Adolf Hitler have gone down in history as weak and foolish men, and to a very great extent that is exactly what they were. Chamberlain et al were unable to comprehend Hitler’s willingness to bluff, his determination to actually have a war (to the point he was bitterly disappointed when Chamberlain gave him everything he said he wanted), and the fact there was nothing they could give Hitler that would quench his thirst for war. That said, they were also very aware that a long war on the same scale as WW1 would be utterly disastrous for Europe, and hypnotised by the (illusionary) German military might. The Treaty of Munich might have made sense to a western European statesman, but very little sense to anyone else and it was incredible foolish from nearly any other point of view.
Chamberlain did succeed in cutting the ground from under Hitler’s feet, briefly, but Hitler soon recovered and went on to plunge the world into war the following year. It was arguably the single worst foreign policy mistake in modern British history, with repercussions that continue to echo to this day.
What Might Have Happened?
Hitler gets greedy.
Like I said above, Hitler was the only person in 1938 who genuinely wanted the war. He believed, at least at first, that Chamberlain and the rest of the appeasers would stand up to him, surviving a trigger for the war he wanted so much. It must have been a surprise to him when Chamberlain gave him what he wanted on a silver platter, citing Germany’s legitimate claims as an excuse for giving in. And yes, there were quite a few legitimate claims. But those claims did not include the whole of Czechoslovakia and in this timeline, Hitler decides to demand that all of Czechoslovakia is surrendered to Germany.
This is too much, even for Chamberlain. The Czechs themselves had to be forced to concede the territory they surrendered in OTL, and that was suicide given that it handed over their main defence line to Germans. The idea of giving up their entire country is completely unreasonable, clear proof that whatever they say or do Hitler had no intention of respecting their independence any longer than it suited him to do so. Chamberlain could sell Munich to the British Parliament by insisting Germany was only receiving its legitimate claims, but Hitler has now cut the ground out from under his feet by demanding something that he has no claim to. Chamberlain now looks foolish as well as pacifistic, and his rivals - such as Churchill - are using it to prove that there is nothing to be gained by trying to appease Adolf Hitler. In a sense, the anti-German backlash that was fuelled by Hitler’s seizure of the remainder of Czechoslovakia in OTL 1939 has come early.
Czechoslovakia flatly refuses to concede anything to Adolf Hitler. The Poles - who historically took a section of Czechoslovakia for themselves - put their disputes with the Czechs aside and start preparing for war, reasoning that a man that Hitler has to be stopped sooner rather than later. The French suffer a series of political upheavals as it becomes clear that there will be war, if Hitler doesn’t back down, and it isn’t clear to outsiders who is going to win.
Hitler has a choice - he can concede defeat, and admit he went too far too fast, or he can risk war with Czechoslovakia and gamble Poland and France will not intervene. He is not the kind of person to concede defeat, even if Germany could afford to do so. The Nazi economic miracle is nothing of the sort - the Germans need to loot more and more territories in order to keep their economy going, or they will face massive shortfalls that will cripple their rearmament programme. Worse, from Hitler’s point of view, there are plenty of people within the Reich’s government that would happily put a knife in his back if he took a pratfall. The myth of the Fuhrer’s infallibility has not yet taken off, certainly not to the degree it did after OTL Munich. And he is convinced that Germany can win a short victorious war.
The Germans build up along the Czechoslovakia border. They make a big show of their power, displaying tanks and aircraft to intimidate the Czechs. This display is nothing more than a façade; the Germans simply don’t have the men and machines for anything other than a very short conflict, not least because they have troops and aircraft in Spain fighting for Franco. Hitler does start bringing back some of those men, but logistics are not Germany’s strong point and shipping them home takes time he doesn’t have. He is painfully aware that time is ticking away. The French may not have the political nerve to stand up to him, he thinks, but they do have a powerful army and sooner or later someone with more nerve will take the lead in France. Hitler needs to act fast, or not at all.
Hitler launches the invasion after a final attempt to intimidate the Czechs. The Germans make good progress at first, but they rapidly run into heavy defences that slow them down and force them to expend ammunition they simply don’t have in vast quantities. The Czechs have some minor problems with Germans in Czechoslovakia, but many of them remain loyal now their country has been attacked. The German offensive slows as the inefficiencies in the German war machine make themselves manifest, with numerous tanks destroyed or disabled through a shortfall of spare parts. German aircraft prove themselves to be pretty good, but the tactic of sowing panic doesn’t work so well when the target doesn’t have anywhere to run. The Germans rapidly find themselves grinding to a halt, no matter how much Hitler encourages his men to keep advancing. No matter what he does, he cannot hide the fact that Germany is no longer advancing in Czechoslovakia.
The war galvanises both Poland and France. The Poles are caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. They have Hitler to the west and Stalin to the east. The Poles suspect that it is only a matter of time before Stalin attacks them, and that committing themselves to a major offensive against Nazi Germany would weaken the defences in the east and invite Stalin to invade. That limits the amount of force they can deploy against Nazi Germany. On the other hand, they will never have a better chance to put Hitler down before it’s too late. The French are initially unenthusiastic about war, but as it becomes clear that Germany is nowhere near as powerful as they believed they get more inclined to intervene.
The Poles attack East Prussia. The Germans cry foul - the Poles didn’t bother with a declaration of war - but they are largely ignored. The defences are weak as Hitler has drained down most of the troops for the invasion of Czechoslovakia, and the fixed defences are insufficient to do more than slow the Poles, and the German line rapidly crumbles. Thousands of German start fleeing West, encouraged - to some degree - by Polish troops. The Poles do not particularly want to uproot vast numbers of Germans, but the risk of having a German minority in their land that could be used as an excuse for war by a later German leader is too dangerous. Hitler orders immediate counter-attacks out of East Germany, but the Germans do not have the resources to do more than bomb a handful of Polish cities. The effects are nowhere near drastic as they were in Spain, and the Poles take heart.
The French, backed by a largely token British force, invade the Rhineland. The advance is slow at first, delayed by German irregulars and French logistics inefficiencies, but rapidly picks up speed as it becomes clear the Germans have nothing more than skeleton forces in the region. Hitler attempts to pull back troops from Czechoslovakia to block the French, and what he thinks is a full-scale invasion from the east (actually, nothing more than Polish cavalry raids), but the Germans have already expended most of their ammunition and mobile units. The Germans can no longer carry out a proper mobile defence, nor do they have the numbers to set up trenches and force the French to storm them one by one. Ironically, the war the French fight is the war they prepared for, slow offences rather than lightning strikes intended to shatter enemy lines and advance through the gap, sowing panic in the rear. They are slowed more by their own logistics failings than German resistance.
Hitler intends to keep fighting. He is encouraged by suggestions that Italy is going to put together a peace conference that will allow Germany to survive with honour. This is nothing more than self-delusion and the smarter German military leaders know it. The war is lost, and Germany is heading towards a defeat that will make 1918 look like a minor setback, rather than total disaster. They put together a coup, and launch it with what forces they have on hand. There is a brief period of confusion in Berlin, with fighting between the SS - such as it was in 1938 - and the German military, before the diehard Nazis are killed or forced to run for their lives. Hitler himself is evacuated by his bodyguard as troops storm the Reichstag, and flown to Switzerland. The Swiss aren’t too keen on giving him asylum, but he is safe for the moment. The new military government is quietly pleased with the outcome. A Hitler who fled is far less dangerous than a prisoner or a dead man who committed suicide by shooting himself in the back. Going into exile discredits Hitler more than anything they could do.
The new military government reaches out to the Allies and requests an armistice, all the while pulling back its troops into more defensible positions and doing what it can to prepare to continue the war if the allies refuse to come to reasonable terms. The military government does not expect to be treated gently, but it dares not risk another Versailles. There is a limit to how much they can blame on the exiled Hitler, and the longer it takes put together a peace treaty the more the new government will take the blame.
The allies themselves are also keen to end the war, although for different reasons. The British and French can afford a short victorious war, but a long drawn-out conflict will be utterly disastrous even if they win. The Czechs want to get the Germans out of their territory and the Poles want to secure their claim to East Prussia, while avoiding a conflict that might invite Stalin to intervene. There are some disputes between the allies, particularly over avoiding another Versailles that would encourage a revanchist German government a decade in the future, but eventually an agreement is hammered out and presented to the Germans.
The terms are surprisingly light. Germany will formally concede all claims to German territory and Germanic populations outside Germany itself. Germany will also concede East Prussia to Poland and demilitarise the Rhineland (again), as well as accepting more reasonable limits on her military power. The Czechs will receive a certain amount of reparations from the Germans, but otherwise the Germans will not have to pay anything to the victorious powers. While some people arguing that Germany should pay for the war, wiser heads point out that Germany is in no condition to pay much of anything - the collapse of the German economy is now all too clear - and demanding payment didn’t work out too well the last time. The German military government grits its teeth and accepts the terms. They are too much the realists to believe there’s anything to be gained by continuing the war.
The aftermath of the war, in Germany, is murky. The Nazi Regime has been effectively destroyed, and the economy has collapsed, which encourages more violence against Jews and others blamed for the crisis even though Hitler is now in comfortable exile. A sizeable number of Germans and Germanics have been evicted from East Prussia and Czechoslovakia, forcing the German state to house and resettle them. The government, desperate for cash, sells tanks and aircraft to other powers, including the Poles (ironically) and the Chinese. They also allow a number of German officers who were a little too close regime for comfort to go into exile themselves, taking their experience to the Chinese, Turks, Iranians, or other powers interested in building up their military power. Germany does not have a great reputation in this timeline, but it is generally agreed that German aircraft and tanks were very good even though they lost the war.
Outside Germany, the results are much better. Chamberlain’s government has staggered on, largely because there isn’t any real opposition. Churchill is now Minister of Defence and angling for the Prime Minister’s job, and he might just get it because Churchill saw through Hitler’s bluff a long time before anyone else. The new French government is much more bullish, now is fought and won a war with Germany and both France and Britain are enjoying a surge of confidence. The war did some economic damage, but nothing they can’t handle. Indeed, for both countries, the fighting helped bring the empires close together, although that will not last long.
The Poles and Czechs are still not very fond of each other, but they have formed a tight alliance out of fear of a rejuvenated Germany or abandonment by the Western allies. The polls work hard to turn East Prussia into another part of Poland, deporting many Germans who refuse to take Polish citizenship or were involved in the Nazi regime. They have become increasingly aware of the horrors of Nazi regime, and they’re determined to make sure there is no resurgence. They are also deeply concerned about the prospect of a war with the Soviet Union. They do not allow themselves any illusions about Stalin, or the manpower at his disposal.
Stalin himself is irked by the outcome. He had hoped that Western Europe would destroy itself, allowing the Russians a chance to walk in and simply take over. The prospect of a grand capitalistic alliance looms large in his paranoia, encouraging him to pull back from Spain and start preparing defences for a prospective attack from the West. The Soviets continue building up their military, but have fewer plans to risk an invasion of Poland and Germany.
The United States barely takes any notice of the war. The US has seen a slight economic upturn through military orders being placed in American factories by Britain and France, but otherwise is very little affected. United States is more concerned about Japan in the Far East than (the now defunct) Nazi Germany or the USSR.
The Japanese, at first, take little notice of the war too. The Japanese are trying desperately to drive the Chinese Nationalists out of the war, or at least force them to come to terms. The Japanese have the edge on the ground, and they have done immense damage to the Chinese army at the Battle of Shanghai, but the sheer size of China makes it impossible for them to bring the Chinese to a final decisive battle. They can beat the Chinese army in the field, yet they cannot keep Chinese insurgents from harassing their forces and targeting their supply lines. As the ramifications of the Munich War continue to spread, the Japanese discover the exiled Germans have been training the Chinese in use of modern weapons and tactics, making the Chinese War far more costly for Japan. The Japanese are not on the verge of losing - yet - but a long drawn out conflict is not in their interests. They are becoming increasingly aware that the British and French can afford to send more troops to the Far East, now the threat of a major European war has receded. The prospect of economic sanctions, as reports of Japanese atrocities continue to spread, cannot be dismissed. Japan is slowly becoming aware that is caught in a deadly trap. If the British and French - and perhaps the Americans - start tightening the economic noose, Japan will have no choice but to fight or effectively herself on the mercy of the western powers.
Military officers across the globe study the fighting in hopes of determining what lessons can be learnt from the brief war. Their conclusions are somewhat mixed. They believe that tanks have their value of the modern battlefield, but the idea of a lightning strike through the lines appears to have been discredited. The value of fixed defences appears to have been proven, although the Czechs have the advantage of terrain and the opponent who simply didn’t have the supplies for a long conflict. Airpower has proven its value, but bombing cities is no longer so feared and the dangers of aircraft harrying retreating troops is grossly underestimated. Most powers start improving their anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons, including designs that can be used for both purposes.
The fighting in Spain splutters on, now that German troops and aircraft have been withdrawn. Mussolini continues to back Franco, but the Italian contribution is becoming increasingly expensive and showing no real return. The British and French are much more aggressive about enforcing the blockade now, making it harder for the Italians to openly support Franco and causing dissidents in Italy to question the wisdom of the Spanish involvement and, in fact, the wisdom of Mussolini himself. Franco still has a slight edge over his opponents, but with the prospect of the French supporting the Republicans in Spain looming on the horizon he can no longer sure of victory. The prospect of Italy frittering away what little military power it has, preventing them from causing trouble elsewhere, suits the British and French just fine.
In mid/late 1939, European statesmen have good reason to believe the world is going their way. Germany has been taught a salutary lesson. Italy is no real threat without Germany and Mussolini seems intent on making it much less a threat anyway. The Soviet Union is a long way away, and Japan is deeply enmeshed in China. There appear to be no threats on the horizon. And then, everything changes …