One question that hangs over is, would France have demanded such a ridiculous amount of money with a different leader in charge? Louis-Philippe, after all, had several entanglements, some of them in the region (Pastry War) over making countries pay debts, whether they could or not. So a more liberal regime doesn't guarantee no demands even if Louis-Philippe lowered the levels of money to be paid. However, what if no Restoration or no power coming back to the Ultras? One thing that came out a few months before that terribly unequal treaty was the law of the "milliard des émigrés", giving money to people for having their property sold off in the Revolution, like the planters and slaveowners who had lost money because their property wanted freedom and gained it (oh, and sorry, @Sulemain, but both Louis-Philippe and Lafayette took money on that). France would not have to find as much money and look at weaker targets or try and assert itself like it also did by invading Algeria in 1830.