ChrisNuttall
Well-known member
Continued ...
Sealion Fails (Part II)
What Has Happened So Far
The Germans attempted to invade Britain in 1940, after the Fall of France. The invasion rapidly turned into a disaster, with the near-complete destruction of Germany’s navy and large swathes of its air power (mainly transport and bombing units). In the wake of their victory, Britain rapidly defeated the Italians in North Africa and started pushing into French North Africa. This sparked off a series of events in France, with the Germans taking over the mainland and the remnants of the government fleeing to North Africa along with most of the French Navy. The war appears to have stalemated. Germany cannot crush Britain, while Britain cannot liberate Europe from Germany. It is now mid-1941.
The Course of the War
Hitler doesn’t want to admit it, but Germany has been gravely weakened – directly and indirectly – by the failed invasion. The economy is in trouble because of the destroyed barges, making it difficult to sustain the military, let alone make it larger. The Germans have had to cancel their battleship program, in hopes of directing resources to replacing the lost material, but it will be years before they recover themselves. Their ability to even grind out more u-boats is very poor.
This has badly weakened the Nazi Regime. Hitler is still in control, at least on the surface, but the various military factions are banding together to resist him. The Germans don’t have the resources to support a separate SS military, which limits Hitler’s ability to purge untrustworthy generals. There are already quiet suggestions Hitler should quit while he’s ahead, although he’s not interested. He doesn’t have many options. The British and Germans sound each other out, in hopes of coming to terms, but neither side is prepared to offer a deal the other can reasonably accept.
Hitler knows time is running out. Britain is getting stronger, because the Germans can’t block the flow of supplies from America. France is restive. Italy is trying to back out of the alliance. Stalin is tightening the screws, demanding more and more in exchange for Russian raw materials. The rest of Europe is remaining neutral, rather than turning against the Reich. Hitler discusses plans to invade Russia or Turkey with his generals, but they veto both of them. In this timeline, Hitler simply doesn’t have the prestige to put them back in their place. They still respect him, but they know he’s fallible.
Churchill has mixed feelings about the way things are going. Britain is getting stronger. That’s good. Britain cannot actually win the war outright. That’s bad. Churchill is uneasily aware America is less concerned about Germany in this timeline, now Germany looks less of a threat. Britain’s ability to continue funding the war is more limited than the Americans seem to realise. The UK needs peace, but it also needs Hitler gone – ideally, a return to 1939 borders. It isn’t going to happen.
Japan is caught in a trap. Their war in China is getting bogged down. American economic warfare is weakening them badly, while American military power is flowing into the Far East (as they don’t need so many deployments to the Atlantic in ATL). The Russians are a looming presence to the north. Britain is weaker, and Hong Kong has been effectively denuded of defences, but they’re clearly no pushovers either. The Japanese agonise over the problem as the screws continue to tighten. If they back down, they may face demands for more and more concessions (and all the while their enemies will be growing stronger); if they fight, the odds of winning will be very low indeed. The Japanese start recalling their merchant ships through mid-1941, in hopes of having them in home waters when the shooting starts. Without every quite realising it, the Japanese have made the decision for war.
The recall tips off both Churchill and FDR. Britain and America both send reinforcements to the Far East. Japan panics and strikes first, launching bombing raids on British and American possessions and following up with invasions. Pearl Harbour is left untouched in this timeline – the Japanese don’t have the resources to strike the base, not yet. They call on Hitler to declare war on the US. Hitler is keen to lash out at his tormentors, if only to do something, but the generals veto it. Germany will sit this one out. Perversely, this works in Japan’s favour. There are limits to what the UK can send, with Germany looming on the far side of the channel.
The Japanese take Hong Kong fairly easily, but find themselves bogged down as they approach Singapore. Wavell is in command and he’s a solid general, one not given to panic as the Japanese try to bluff him. They find themselves fighting desperately to take the Philippines and the DEI, which tips FDR’s hand. The USN cannot leave MacArthur and his men to die. The USN departs Pearl Harbour, intent on carrying out the original War Plan Orange. The operation is a total disaster. Japanese carrier-borne aircraft savage the American ships, sinking most of them. America is far from beaten, but the losses are high and it will take quite some time to rebuild and train new sailors and airmen.
This doesn’t solve the problems facing Japan. They may dream of global conquests, but their reality is far bleaker. They have to keep most of their army in China and Manchuria or the Chinese will grow stronger and the Russians might invade. They can and do take most of the DEI and Philippines, now the American fleet is gone, but they’re brushing up against some very hard limits. Singapore makes life harder for them by deploying British submarines against Japanese supply lines. The Japanese retaliate by hunting the remaining Royal Navy ships in the region and bombing India, but it isn’t enough to knock Britain out of the war. By the time they finally drive Britain out of Singapore, it is too late to inflict a mortal wound on the British Empire.
Stalin is content to play a waiting game as the capitalist states weaken each other. The Russians are growing stronger day by day. Stalin knows he may be able to snatch Manchuria and Korea, or even head west and smash the Reich. He even has visions of invading Iran and taking a warm-water port for himself. The Red Army is learning more and more with every passing day. Why should he not?
Churchill and FDR meet for discussions. Churchill wants to focus on Germany, ideally liberating Europe before the Reich becomes unstoppable or Stalin invades. FDR knows he can’t support the British openly – Germany didn’t declare war, nor is she offering the US any openings for sneaky provocations. The US can and will supply Britain with arms and war materials, but she can’t go much further. Churchill isn’t pleased. The war cannot be allowed to drag on indefinitely, yet he has no way of bringing it to an end.
The USN returns to the war in early 1942. The Americans have learnt a great deal from the previous disaster. The new USN is a carrier-based force that far outnumbers its enemies, although – at first – it is much less experienced. There are a series of navel encounters throughout the rest of the year, each one grinding the Japanese navy down until it has to pull back. Matters are made worse by a major submarine offensive and a Anglo-Indian thrust back to Singapore. The Japanese find their empire starting to come apart and start pulling troops out of Manchuria, trying to patch the holes. Stalin sees the movement and jumps. The Red Army hits the remaining Japanese, trying to blitzkrieg them. The Japanese fight hard, and the Russians aren’t as prepared for modern war as they think, but the sheer weight of Russian firepower and armour drives the Japanese back. They would lose completely if the Russians just kept going. Instead, the Russians go too far, outrun their supply lines and get overextended. The Japanese have a moment to launch counterattacks that weaken the Russian offensive, slowing it down.
The Russian attack on Japan kicks off a political storm in Nazi Germany. Hitler wants to launch a limited offensive against the USSR, in hopes of seizing the resources he needs to keep the Reich alive. The generals are much less enthusiastic. Hitler orders the SS to arrest the dissident generals, sparking off a series of firefights as the generals – who had their own contingency plans – fight back. Confusion reigns supreme as various military units are drawn into the fighting, unsure who is really in command. Hitler himself is shot in the confusion, with the various senior Nazis taken into custody. The generals struggle to patch together a government. It isn’t easy. There are very few senior politicians who can be trusted.
Italy takes advantage of the chaos by formally withdrawing from the war and seeking a separate peace, formalising the under-the-table agreement made in late 1940. Mussolini is ordered to support the peace at gunpoint, then ‘shot while trying to escape.’ Churchill is both relieved and fearful, glad to have the Italians out for good while concerned about how the new German government might react. They might invade Italy to unite their country against (another) foe.
The Germans reach out to Britain, seeking an agreement. The talks are very imprecise. Germany wants to keep what it has, Britain wants a return to 1939 borders (independence for France, Norway, Denmark and West Poland). Both sides agree on a limited truce, at least for the moment. No one really expects it to last.
So … where do we go from here?
Sealion Fails (Part II)
What Has Happened So Far
The Germans attempted to invade Britain in 1940, after the Fall of France. The invasion rapidly turned into a disaster, with the near-complete destruction of Germany’s navy and large swathes of its air power (mainly transport and bombing units). In the wake of their victory, Britain rapidly defeated the Italians in North Africa and started pushing into French North Africa. This sparked off a series of events in France, with the Germans taking over the mainland and the remnants of the government fleeing to North Africa along with most of the French Navy. The war appears to have stalemated. Germany cannot crush Britain, while Britain cannot liberate Europe from Germany. It is now mid-1941.
The Course of the War
Hitler doesn’t want to admit it, but Germany has been gravely weakened – directly and indirectly – by the failed invasion. The economy is in trouble because of the destroyed barges, making it difficult to sustain the military, let alone make it larger. The Germans have had to cancel their battleship program, in hopes of directing resources to replacing the lost material, but it will be years before they recover themselves. Their ability to even grind out more u-boats is very poor.
This has badly weakened the Nazi Regime. Hitler is still in control, at least on the surface, but the various military factions are banding together to resist him. The Germans don’t have the resources to support a separate SS military, which limits Hitler’s ability to purge untrustworthy generals. There are already quiet suggestions Hitler should quit while he’s ahead, although he’s not interested. He doesn’t have many options. The British and Germans sound each other out, in hopes of coming to terms, but neither side is prepared to offer a deal the other can reasonably accept.
Hitler knows time is running out. Britain is getting stronger, because the Germans can’t block the flow of supplies from America. France is restive. Italy is trying to back out of the alliance. Stalin is tightening the screws, demanding more and more in exchange for Russian raw materials. The rest of Europe is remaining neutral, rather than turning against the Reich. Hitler discusses plans to invade Russia or Turkey with his generals, but they veto both of them. In this timeline, Hitler simply doesn’t have the prestige to put them back in their place. They still respect him, but they know he’s fallible.
Churchill has mixed feelings about the way things are going. Britain is getting stronger. That’s good. Britain cannot actually win the war outright. That’s bad. Churchill is uneasily aware America is less concerned about Germany in this timeline, now Germany looks less of a threat. Britain’s ability to continue funding the war is more limited than the Americans seem to realise. The UK needs peace, but it also needs Hitler gone – ideally, a return to 1939 borders. It isn’t going to happen.
Japan is caught in a trap. Their war in China is getting bogged down. American economic warfare is weakening them badly, while American military power is flowing into the Far East (as they don’t need so many deployments to the Atlantic in ATL). The Russians are a looming presence to the north. Britain is weaker, and Hong Kong has been effectively denuded of defences, but they’re clearly no pushovers either. The Japanese agonise over the problem as the screws continue to tighten. If they back down, they may face demands for more and more concessions (and all the while their enemies will be growing stronger); if they fight, the odds of winning will be very low indeed. The Japanese start recalling their merchant ships through mid-1941, in hopes of having them in home waters when the shooting starts. Without every quite realising it, the Japanese have made the decision for war.
The recall tips off both Churchill and FDR. Britain and America both send reinforcements to the Far East. Japan panics and strikes first, launching bombing raids on British and American possessions and following up with invasions. Pearl Harbour is left untouched in this timeline – the Japanese don’t have the resources to strike the base, not yet. They call on Hitler to declare war on the US. Hitler is keen to lash out at his tormentors, if only to do something, but the generals veto it. Germany will sit this one out. Perversely, this works in Japan’s favour. There are limits to what the UK can send, with Germany looming on the far side of the channel.
The Japanese take Hong Kong fairly easily, but find themselves bogged down as they approach Singapore. Wavell is in command and he’s a solid general, one not given to panic as the Japanese try to bluff him. They find themselves fighting desperately to take the Philippines and the DEI, which tips FDR’s hand. The USN cannot leave MacArthur and his men to die. The USN departs Pearl Harbour, intent on carrying out the original War Plan Orange. The operation is a total disaster. Japanese carrier-borne aircraft savage the American ships, sinking most of them. America is far from beaten, but the losses are high and it will take quite some time to rebuild and train new sailors and airmen.
This doesn’t solve the problems facing Japan. They may dream of global conquests, but their reality is far bleaker. They have to keep most of their army in China and Manchuria or the Chinese will grow stronger and the Russians might invade. They can and do take most of the DEI and Philippines, now the American fleet is gone, but they’re brushing up against some very hard limits. Singapore makes life harder for them by deploying British submarines against Japanese supply lines. The Japanese retaliate by hunting the remaining Royal Navy ships in the region and bombing India, but it isn’t enough to knock Britain out of the war. By the time they finally drive Britain out of Singapore, it is too late to inflict a mortal wound on the British Empire.
Stalin is content to play a waiting game as the capitalist states weaken each other. The Russians are growing stronger day by day. Stalin knows he may be able to snatch Manchuria and Korea, or even head west and smash the Reich. He even has visions of invading Iran and taking a warm-water port for himself. The Red Army is learning more and more with every passing day. Why should he not?
Churchill and FDR meet for discussions. Churchill wants to focus on Germany, ideally liberating Europe before the Reich becomes unstoppable or Stalin invades. FDR knows he can’t support the British openly – Germany didn’t declare war, nor is she offering the US any openings for sneaky provocations. The US can and will supply Britain with arms and war materials, but she can’t go much further. Churchill isn’t pleased. The war cannot be allowed to drag on indefinitely, yet he has no way of bringing it to an end.
The USN returns to the war in early 1942. The Americans have learnt a great deal from the previous disaster. The new USN is a carrier-based force that far outnumbers its enemies, although – at first – it is much less experienced. There are a series of navel encounters throughout the rest of the year, each one grinding the Japanese navy down until it has to pull back. Matters are made worse by a major submarine offensive and a Anglo-Indian thrust back to Singapore. The Japanese find their empire starting to come apart and start pulling troops out of Manchuria, trying to patch the holes. Stalin sees the movement and jumps. The Red Army hits the remaining Japanese, trying to blitzkrieg them. The Japanese fight hard, and the Russians aren’t as prepared for modern war as they think, but the sheer weight of Russian firepower and armour drives the Japanese back. They would lose completely if the Russians just kept going. Instead, the Russians go too far, outrun their supply lines and get overextended. The Japanese have a moment to launch counterattacks that weaken the Russian offensive, slowing it down.
The Russian attack on Japan kicks off a political storm in Nazi Germany. Hitler wants to launch a limited offensive against the USSR, in hopes of seizing the resources he needs to keep the Reich alive. The generals are much less enthusiastic. Hitler orders the SS to arrest the dissident generals, sparking off a series of firefights as the generals – who had their own contingency plans – fight back. Confusion reigns supreme as various military units are drawn into the fighting, unsure who is really in command. Hitler himself is shot in the confusion, with the various senior Nazis taken into custody. The generals struggle to patch together a government. It isn’t easy. There are very few senior politicians who can be trusted.
Italy takes advantage of the chaos by formally withdrawing from the war and seeking a separate peace, formalising the under-the-table agreement made in late 1940. Mussolini is ordered to support the peace at gunpoint, then ‘shot while trying to escape.’ Churchill is both relieved and fearful, glad to have the Italians out for good while concerned about how the new German government might react. They might invade Italy to unite their country against (another) foe.
The Germans reach out to Britain, seeking an agreement. The talks are very imprecise. Germany wants to keep what it has, Britain wants a return to 1939 borders (independence for France, Norway, Denmark and West Poland). Both sides agree on a limited truce, at least for the moment. No one really expects it to last.
So … where do we go from here?