Ramifications of an Allied Victory in a 1938 War?

[raharris1973]

Polish non-involvement seems the likeliest outcome. Even siding with Germany could threaten Soviet involvement. Now, Hungarian intervention might be possible though it unlikely, and that could drag in Romania and/or the USSR. Not likely, but possible.

Whatever else happens, mobile and trench warfare in Bohemia and the Low Countries, potential wider expansion into France, the Danube region with Hungary and Romania, linkage with the unfinished Spanish war --- if Poland manages to remain neutral and basically inviolate, that is a major miracle.

It is hard to have anything like the Holocaust as we knew it, without a Nazi occupation of Poland, because of how that put so many millions of racial victims, Jews and Slavic elites, under Nazi rule. And if Poland finishes the war unviolated from the east, as well as from the west, even a stronger, less damaged USSR does not have the commanding geographic position in Central Europe that was so characteristic of the Cold War. This is a game changer.

Now the alt-WWII could still be nasty, with its own set of nasty atrocities. Bohemian front and western front combat on more constricted fronts with lesser prepared armies may be less dynamic and more of a grind, a little bit more WWI style (generally worse for soldiers, not as bad for civilians, because less sweeping over the land), but certain territories occupied by the Nazis for a substantial period, like Czech Bohemia, might be hit much harder by Nazi racial eliminationist and forced labor policies, and the burden of occupation on Belgians may be heavier if the front-line runs through their country for a prolonged period.

 

[Wendell]

Whatever else happens, mobile and trench warfare in Bohemia and the Low Countries, potential wider expansion into France, the Danube region with Hungary and Romania, linkage with the unfinished Spanish war --- if Poland manages to remain neutral and basically inviolate, that is a major miracle.

It is hard to have anything like the Holocaust as we knew it, without a Nazi occupation of Poland, because of how that put so many millions of racial victims, Jews and Slavic elites, under Nazi rule. And if Poland finishes the war unviolated from the east, as well as from the west, even a stronger, less damaged USSR does not have the commanding geographic position in Central Europe that was so characteristic of the Cold War. This is a game changer.

Now the alt-WWII could still be nasty, with its own set of nasty atrocities. Bohemian front and western front combat on more constricted fronts with lesser prepared armies may be less dynamic and more of a grind, a little bit more WWI style (generally worse for soldiers, not as bad for civilians, because less sweeping over the land), but certain territories occupied by the Nazis for a substantial period, like Czech Bohemia, might be hit much harder by Nazi racial eliminationist and forced labor policies, and the burden of occupation on Belgians may be heavier if the front-line runs through their country for a prolonged period.

I don't think a 1938 war ends up coming anywhere close to a conflict of that magnitude.

 

[MachiavelliJr]

A defeated Germany might not have as large an occupation and overhaul if the war's more contained? Though I guess practically that will look a lot like OTL as industrialists, generals, and officials go "of course I wasn't a Nazi and didn't like Hitler" and carry on

I know it's fashionable now to point out the serious limits to "Denazification" and refer to all the Germans who managed to retain their high places in society post-1945. But the scale of public education about the evils of Nazism and the popular determination for a clean break are, by any historical standard, huge and in a 1941 defeat of the Nazis it's very hard to imagine those happening. This is a Nazi party that doesn't look anywhere near as scary or as evil as OTL - no Final Solution as the most obvious starter. So whatever the Allies do with Germany there will be much, much more cultural and institutional continuity (both with the Nazis and back to Weimar) than in OTL.

 

[Incognitia]

I think there is a question as to how much of that is down to how earth shatteringly evil Nazism was, and how much of it is down to Germany having lost two major wars in a generation.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Slightly adjusted. The portion of Silesia remaining German is larger. I tried to make it conform to the Morgenthau Plan line.

I don't see why Poland would be worried about a Soviet attack when the Soviets had a defensive alliance with Czechoslovakia. If the Soviets have declared War on Germany, then Poland's got quite the free hand to jump on the anti-German dogpile.




A notable knock-on is that Petain stripping the Jews of Algeria of citizenship was something of a final straw for many Algerians who sought to assimilate into Frenchness. The thought process was that if the Jews could have their citizenship taken after 60+ years, then muslim citizenship was no more permanent.

The German issue being resolved affects Palestine considerably. Britain tilted toward the Arabs by 1939 because with war in Europe looming Britain did not want to alienate Arab opinion. The attitude was that the Jews would support Britain no matter what, and so could be made to accept things the Arabs wouldn't. Furthermore, Jabotinsky had secured Polish, Hungarian, and Romanian support for an evacuation of some 1.5 million Jews to Palestine over a ten year period. Poland's role is particularly funky - they armed, trained, and generally supported Jabotinsky's goal of a revolt against the British in response to the White Paper. Given that the White Paper wouldn't be passed as it was historically, this probably doesn't happen. Jabotinsky also won the Italians over to his side for a time.

A Yugoslav War probably pops up as a result of Italy egging on Croatian Nationalists after the Banovina is established.

The 1948 South African election may go differently. Some number of Afrikaaners voted national because Smuts was seen as too pro-British.

France's incentive to cede Alexandretta to Turkey fades now. France encouraged the annexation of the "Hatay State" to Turkey in order to dissuade the Turks from aligning with Nazi Germany. With the Nazis defeated, that problem is gone.

Does India become independent as a single country or is it partitioned like historically?

Japan doesn't have the leeway to expand South into Indochina. If they can't strike south, and Britain/France/America are funneling stuff to the Nationalists through Indochina in particular ... how long until Japan burns itself out in China?

Does France use its newfound freehand to intervene in Catalonia?

 

[Wendell]

I still think the map is too generous to the victors. Good analysis otherwise.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

I still think the map is too generous to the victors. Good analysis otherwise.

Maybe. If Hitler is couped, the prospect of a rapid occupation of Silesia as there's a brief mini-Civil War inside of Germany seems straightforward to me.

Poland post-WWII seemed to have been more okay with having a large German minority than Stalin was with Poland having a large German minority. A Polish Upper Silesia, South Prussia (which was mostly Masurian), and Danzig seems like the default way of weakening Germany without completely wrecking the place. I tinkered by adding a bit of lower Silesia, and opting to give territory to Czechoslovakia south of the Oder instead of Poland. My guess is the annexed Germans would be told "either accept new citizenship or move" and some sizable minority would choose to move.

In the west, France taking Saarland and Kehl seems likely to me. Complete reoccupation of the Rhineland is less likely, but demilitarization would be likely.

I don't think indemnities of the sort imposed after the First War would be imposed. The need to extract money from Germany in order to rebuild other countries like France wouldn't be present.





Also noteworthy is that Kristellnacht would probably occur during the War. The Nazis would also use the war as an opportunity to round up the country's Jews into camps and ghettoes and kill a great many in a mini holocaust of bullets. Nazism would not be as discredited as OTL due to tremendous degree of scale in the wickedness, but it would still be seen as a stupid, barbaric, and self-destructive ideology.


EDIT: The interwar French policy of cooperation with Central European states to contain Germany would also have been vindicated.
In the meanwhile, the Soviets will have won a propaganda victory in standing up for Czechoslovakia. Expect Communist Parties to play up considerably how France and the USSR were on the same side in Spain and against Germany.

 

[Wendell]

Maybe. If Hitler is couped, the prospect of a rapid occupation of Silesia as there's a brief mini-Civil War inside of Germany seems straightforward to me.

Poland post-WWII seemed to have been more okay with having a large German minority than Stalin was with Poland having a large German minority. A Polish Upper Silesia, South Prussia (which was mostly Masurian), and Danzig seems like the default way of weakening Germany without completely wrecking the place. I tinkered by adding a bit of lower Silesia, and opting to give territory to Czechoslovakia south of the Oder instead of Poland. My guess is the annexed Germans would be told "either accept new citizenship or move" and some sizable minority would choose to move.

In the west, France taking Saarland and Kehl seems likely to me. Complete reoccupation of the Rhineland is less likely, but demilitarization would be likely.

I don't think indemnities of the sort imposed after the First War would be imposed. The need to extract money from Germany in order to rebuild other countries like France wouldn't be present.





Also noteworthy is that Kristellnacht would probably occur during the War. The Nazis would also use the war as an opportunity to round up the country's Jews into camps and ghettoes and kill a great many in a mini holocaust of bullets. Nazism would not be as discredited as OTL due to tremendous degree of scale in the wickedness, but it would still be seen as a stupid, barbaric, and self-destructive ideology.


EDIT: The interwar French policy of cooperation with Central European states to contain Germany would also have been vindicated.
In the meanwhile, the Soviets will have won a propaganda victory in standing up for Czechoslovakia. Expect Communist Parties to play up considerably how France and the USSR were on the same side in Spain and against Germany.

There would be a coup very quicky, but no serious civil war. Also, the last thing the Czechs and Poles want or need are more Germans.

 

[Ogrebear]

Very interesting idea - would love to read a full timeline on it.

I can see Poland getting invovled in the War alongside Britain, France, Czechoslovakia, and anyone else with an anti-German grunge - Denmark? Netherlands?

Wonder how much the German bombing would have hit in Britain and France in a 38-41 war? Or ditto into Germany?

Also would a short war in Europe give Japan pause in its own expansion plans?

I could see Britain making India a Dominion in the late 40's, but I suspect the path to independence is still happening, but on a slower timescale. Ditto the change to a Commonwealth - without the war there is no rapid decolonisation as Britain is not skint, but I am fairly sure the Empire as it had been, was done due to the ever increasing complexities of international trade.

France might be harder to convince, but could they convert some of its Empire into an Alt EEC?

 

[spkaca]

If people know of any works that touch on a 1938 war or the idea of an earlier Allied victory I’d love to see them. Even if it’s just a one-shot, map, or PM list!

My TL starts out with just this idea, though I had to make it ASB in order to get the Allies to actually confront Berlin in 1938:

THE SEA EAGLES | Sea Lion Press

www.sealionpress.co.uk

Although it is ASB, I think the broad course of events is at least plausible for the follow-up. Summarising greatly, the Nazis lose out badly in October 1938 and Germany ends up with a restored (constitutional) monarchy. The Sudeten question persists, I had to hand-wave a bit to prevent it becoming a perennial bone of contention. Imperial Japan still starts a war (initially against the European powers only) and gets thrashed. Later, ongoing tensions in Europe generate a war between the USSR and an Anglo-German-Polish alliance. This ends messily, though on the whole the Allies do quite well. The upshot is a kind of informal German diplomatic/ economic hegemony in eastern Europe.

 

[raharris1973]

I don't think a 1938 war ends up coming anywhere close to a conflict of that magnitude.

Well, what magnitude do you expect? The Germans not having time in occupation over *any* foreign territory or foreign populations to commit atrocities against?

I don't see why Poland would be worried about a Soviet attack when the Soviets had a defensive alliance with Czechoslovakia. If the Soviets have declared War on Germany, then Poland's got quite the free hand to jump on the anti-German dogpile.

You are missing an aspect of this (the Soviet-Czech alliance) that Poland could and should worry about. The Soviet Union and Czechoslovakia were not territorially contiguous in the interwar era. And the shortest route between them lay through Polish Galicia. The Soviet Union is likely to ask to borrow the roads and rails and airspace of southeastern Poland to send their armed forces to help the Czechs and combat the Germans. The Poles won't want to agree to Soviet passage because they will be afraid the Soviet forces will never leave anywhere they are allowed (after all, they have claims to some of this land on an ethnolinguistic basis and the Curzon Line), and may not obey any jurisdictional limits within Poland. The Poles may worry the Soviets might feel entitled to roll through Polish territory to aid the Czechs, with or without Polish permission. Indeed, a French military or diplomatic account from shortly before Munich recalls a Soviet answering his French counterpart's question about what the USSR plans to do specifically to help Czechoslovakia if Germany attacks, by saying, "of course, we attack Poland."

Japan doesn't have the leeway to expand South into Indochina. If they can't strike south, and Britain/France/America are funneling stuff to the Nationalists through Indochina in particular ... how long until Japan burns itself out in China?

1940 and 1941 - I'm skeptical, did not happen in OTL

1941-1942-1943 - I'm skeptical, the "burn out" did not happen in OTL's Pacific War, and in this ATL, Japan has 11 more Army Divisions retained in China and much more air force. Regarding oil, although in OTL's 1941-42 campaign it captured the Allied oilfields of DEI, Burma, Malaya, Borneo, Philippines, it did not get the damaged and sabotaged oil facilities back up to production and delivery north to China and Japan until middle or late 1943; plus, all the Pacific War/Southeast Asia combat *cost* a lot of fuel from the pre-war reserve.

The only net advantage to the China side is the supply lines for delivering it aid are more open, and aid donors should be just as generous as OTL if not more.

1944 could swing either way - if Soviets and Western Allies are generous to Chinese with supplies, and if Chinese despite factional competition and infighting, also stand up to Japanese attacks and conduct counter-attacks and make Japan pay a price for any expansion anywhere in China, Japan can really start hurting, running down resources.

But if Chinese don't get generous aid or mostly stockpile it for civil war, use it against each other, are too militarily passive, face famine, corruption, inflation, national dry rot, they could lose more ground like they did in OTL's Ichigo.

1945 Trend in either direction, or stagnation could continue

1946-47 same-same, both China and Japan are having some internal weakening, increased cynicism, heightened vulnerability if about outside power (more likely USSR, but possibly USA) wants to suddenly "get tough" and apply massive pressure or actual force.

and anyone else with an anti-German grunge - Denmark?

Why should little Denmark expose itself in this way? It already got back all this Danish-populated land it could reasonably want, without combat, through the Treaty of Versailles.

 

[ChrisNuttall]

The fundamental problem facing Japan was that they were both unable and unwilling to bring the war in China to anything resembling a victorious end. They were dreadful invaders and occupiers and the best the Chinese could hope for, if the Japanese won, was permanent second-class status in their own homeworld. The Japanese were better than the Chinese one-on-one, at least at the start (Chiang deciding to throw his best divisions into the fight for Shanghai in 1937 was a deadly mistake, as it seriously weakened the Chinese and presumably that would have happened in this timeline too), but as they tried to occupy more and more of china they were spread thinner and thinner. Chinese collaborators could have made up some of the shortfall, but such collaborators would have been both incredibly unpopular and very short-sighted.

The Western Powers, in this timeline, could cheerfully keep supplying the Nationalists (and the USSR the Communists) in hopes of Japan, as you suggest, burning itself out. The Japanese would seem much less threatening if Nazi Germany wasn't a threat in Europe, encouraging both West and Russia to keep arming the Chinese. Stalin might use the clashes in 1939 as an excuse to invade, if he doesn’t have to worry about Hitler in the West. The Japanese would be caught in a trap, unable to extract themselves without making dangerously large concessions.

Imperial Japan being Imperial Japan, they might choose war in 1938 instead. Who would they target? They might see the Russians as an easy target if the border clashes of 1938 aren’t as decisive as they were in 1939. Or they might go west instead. They’d be starting from a far weaker position than 1941 – they wouldn’t have their troops so close to Malaya, for example – and facing stronger opponents. They might try to bypass the Philippines and seize the Dutch East Indies, but this would be horrendously dangerous – if the US joined the war, they could cripple Japan’s war effort overnight. Even if the US didn’t, they’d still have to get the oil (etc, etc) back to Japan.

The Japanese would probably give the British, French and Dutch a series of bloody noses in the early battles. But without the demands of Europe, all three powers could devote more troops to the region – Singapore might be held in this timeline, if the British have a better commanding officer – as well as more naval power. The Japanese still have a slight edge in carriers, but the British and French will deploy submarines as well as land-based air power to attack the Japanese shipping lanes. (Historically, the UK planned to use Singapore as a submarine base, but the city fell before those plans could be implemented.) The Japanese might or might not take the DEI, but they’d have serious problems going further and either invading Australia or knocking her out of the war. Again, the RN would be operating subs out of Australia to give the Japanese a very hard time.

Assuming the US stays out of the war, I imagine the Anglo-French-Dutch alliance will gain supremacy in 1940, effectively strangling Japan while leaving garrisons to starve. The USSR will probably strike south as the Japanese weaken, pushing them back to Korea. The allies will probably not be able to actually invade Japan – they don’t have the resources of 1945 USA – but they can keep weakening Japan until their position in China collapses.

If the US does join the war, the Japanese are doomed.

Chris

 

[Wendell]

@raharris1973 I see the German advance bogging down in the Sudetenland and either a coup in Berlin or a quick reversal once France and/or Britain actually intervene. To me, you're underestimating how much the Munich Pact in OTL solidified Hitler's hold on power.

 

[raharris1973]

@ChrisNuttall - What is motivating Japan to launch a wider war in 1938, against either the Soviets or the West European imperialists - Japan's need to entertain us alternate history speculators? Or the fact that there is a war broken out in Europe in September-October 1938 distracting France, Britain, maybe, Netherlands, USSR? Even so, Japan is not facing much desperation - In 1938 it thinks the Chinese need just a couple more beatings to fall apart, the Japanese were still fighting campaigns in China to win the war *there* and hadn't lost hope of doing that, taking Wuhan in October 1938 and Guangzhou in October-November 1938. Japan wouldn't have *known* it was facing an endless stream of rising aid for China in late 1938 if there is war going in Europe. *After* a decisive defeat of the Germans, all those threatened by the Germans could *then* boost aid to China, but the war on Germany wouldn't be resolved to everyone's satisfaction until sometime in 1939.

 

[ChrisNuttall]

@ChrisNuttall - What is motivating Japan to launch a wider war in 1938, against either the Soviets or the West European imperialists - Japan's need to entertain us alternate history speculators? Or the fact that there is a war broken out in Europe in September-October 1938 distracting France, Britain, maybe, Netherlands, USSR? Even so, Japan is not facing much desperation - In 1938 it thinks the Chinese need just a couple more beatings to fall apart, the Japanese were still fighting campaigns in China to win the war *there* and hadn't lost hope of doing that, taking Wuhan in October 1938 and Guangzhou in October-November 1938. Japan wouldn't have *known* it was facing an endless stream of rising aid for China in late 1938 if there is war going in Europe. *After* a decisive defeat of the Germans, all those threatened by the Germans could *then* boost aid to China, but the war on Germany wouldn't be resolved to everyone's satisfaction until sometime in 1939.

Never underestimate the need for entertainment <wink>

More seriously, Japan in Alt-1938/9 is in a dangerous place. The Chinese have virtually unlimited supplies of manpower, and there is no way in hell the Japanese are going to convince many Chinese to join their forces or accept Japanese domination. There were quite a few incidents of supposedly ‘loyal’ Chinese allies turning on their masters, including one incident that took place shortly before Shanghai in 1937. The Japanese are in a bad spot, very much akin to Russia in Ukraine, except the Russians are more powerful, relatively speaking, than the Japanese.

The Western Powers can keep feeding weapons to China, as can Russia, and they have good incentive to do it (the hope the Japanese will burn themselves out trying to win an unwinnable war). The Japanese cannot cut arms supplies without declaring war, nor can they prevent their economy from being badly damaged by an embargo. They could easily insist on inspecting ships heading to Chinese ports and discover the West retaliates by imposing an embargo. At that point, the Japanese have to either back down or come out swinging.

Germany will not look very dangerous shortly into the war. The peace talks may go on, but the British and French can still send more and more troops and ships east. Japan really has a very short window to win, at best, and that’s still risky for them.

I may do a timeline based on this. Anyone interested?

Chris

 

[Jackson Lennock]

My guess is that after being embargoed, Japan wouldn't be stupid enough to provoke an undistracted Britain, France, America, Netherlands, and USSR at the same time. They had the benefit of already occupying Indochina and Thailand before they attacked Britain and America and the Dutch East Indies. The Soviets were dealing with Barbarossa, the French already defeated, and the British preoccupied. The circumstances on the ground for expansion of the war the way which was done on December 7th 1941 wouldn't be in place.

Could the OTL proposals of Japan "merely" withdrawing from China proper to Mengjiang and Manchukuo succeed? I suppose Hainan and a few other coastal spots like Lushunkou would also be areas they'd prefer not to leave.

 

[ChrisNuttall]

My guess is that after being embargoed, Japan wouldn't be stupid enough to provoke an undistracted Britain, France, America, Netherlands, and USSR at the same time. They had the benefit of already occupying Indochina and Thailand before they attacked Britain and America and the Dutch East Indies. The Soviets were dealing with Barbarossa, the French already defeated, and the British preoccupied. The circumstances on the ground for expansion of the war the way which was done on December 7th 1941 wouldn't be in place.

Could the OTL proposals of Japan "merely" withdrawing from China proper to Mengjiang and Manchukuo succeed? I suppose Hainan and a few other coastal spots like Lushunkou would also be areas they'd prefer not to leave.

It's a difficult issue to address. The problem was that the Japanese 'might' be willing to fall back from some places, but they'd fear that giving into one set of demands would encourage more demands - not impossible, if they had already signaled weakness; they might, in this timeline, learn entirely the wrong lesson from pre-Munich Hitler. The trick would be convincing them they could back down safety, not very easy at the best of times.

Chris

 

[ChrisNuttall]

POD - Hitler, who actually wanted a war in 1938, gets greedy and demands ALL of Czechoslovakia. Chamberlain (et al) grow a spine.

How does that sound?

Chris

 

[ChrisNuttall]

I started a timeline here - https://forum.sealionpress.co.uk/index.php?threads/the-munich-war-and-afterwards.6679/

Comments welcome

Chris