Ramifications of an Allied Victory in a 1938 War?

[Visigoethe]

Something I’ve always wondered about and never really seen any attempts at fleshing out outside of one embarrassing Turtledove project.

Let’s say that negotiations break down during the Munich crisis and Hitler initiatives Fall Grün on its planned date of October 1st, 1938. For various reasons: Czechoslovakia being harder to crack than Poland, a more hostile Soviet Union not trading with Germany, and a failed invasion of France, the German war machine sputters out in 1940 and Allied troops are crossing the Rhine by 1941.

What are the implications for the world going to be after? My first immediate question is what the peace and terms for Germany look like, but I’m very interested in any of the potential long-term consequences. Decolonization and the place of Britain and France as great powers, the fate of the USSR, America’s standing in the world, the result of Japan’s ongoing war with China and the international community’s response, the future of the League of Nations, Zionism as a viable political movement, Eastern Europe without Soviet occupation, etc.

If people know of any works that touch on a 1938 war or the idea of an earlier Allied victory I’d love to see them. Even if it’s just a one-shot, map, or PM list!

 

[MAC161]

Something I’ve always wondered about and never really seen any attempts at fleshing out outside of one embarrassing Turtledove project.

Let’s say that negotiations break down during the Munich crisis and Hitler initiatives Fall Grün on its planned date of October 1st, 1938. For various reasons: Czechoslovakia being harder to crack than Poland, a more hostile Soviet Union not trading with Germany, and a failed invasion of France, the German war machine sputters out in 1940 and Allied troops are crossing the Rhine by 1941.

What are the implications for the world going to be after? My first immediate question is what the peace and terms for Germany look like, but I’m very interested in any of the potential long-term consequences. Decolonization and the place of Britain and France as great powers, the fate of the USSR, America’s standing in the world, the result of Japan’s ongoing war with China and the international community’s response, the future of the League of Nations, Zionism as a viable political movement, Eastern Europe without Soviet occupation, etc.

If people know of any works that touch on a 1938 war or the idea of an earlier Allied victory I’d love to see them. Even if it’s just a one-shot, map, or PM list!

What If? 2 has a decent essay, "The War of 1938" which covers the state of the militaries on all sides at the time of the Munich Conference and analyzes fairly in-depth how an AH conflict with such might play out.

 

[Visigoethe]

What If? 2 has a decent essay, "The War of 1938" which covers the state of the militaries on all sides at the time of the Munich Conference and analyzes fairly in-depth how an AH conflict with such might play out.

Just took a read-through thanks to yourself and the Internet Archive. Very useful for getting a sense of how the war would play out in detail compared to the vague sketch in my mind.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

France and the USSR both agreed to secure Czechoslovakia's defense.

Czechoslovakia had good defenses along the Sudeten Mountains, although not as good defenses to the south. They were fully mobilized on 9/23/1938. Field fortifications were dug and the air force was readied. Embassies in The United States, Romania, and Yugoslavia reported thousands of men were interested in volunteering. In Eastern Slovakia and Carpathian Ruthenia the country had set up camps for foreign volunteers. The Czechoslovaks inquired of the Soviets how long it would take to get planes to eastern Slovakia OTL.

France OTL had its air force not as prepared as it could have been in 1940 because they had to train the pilots on new models. In 1938, things would be different.

Even if the French don't do anything at all, just mobilizing their forces and sending them to the border would require the Germans to stick forces in the West. 1/6 of the Luftwaffe is in Spain too at this point. Germany also lacks the equipment it acquired from taking over Czechoslovakia and the intact armaments manufacturing facilities that it got when it took over Czechoslovakia.

Poland also knew it needed to look to France for its security. Poland might get opportunistic if the Germans get bogged down in the Sudeten mountains. This would also mean Germany having to spread forces thinner to stare down the Poles.

 

[ChrisNuttall]

Obviously, a lot depends on how the war is fought and its ultimate outcome. If we put Germany against Czechoslovakia alone, the odds are good that the Germans lose but the Czechs can’t take the war to Berlin in return. If the Poles and the French join the conflict, Germany becomes a great deal more vulnerable - if they expend what little armoured units and suchlike they have in 1938, they probably cannot stop the French from marching into the Rhineland and knocking Germany out of the war. Hitler would probably not agree to surrender under any circumstances, but with Germany on the verge of a second total defeat I think his generals would probably overthrow him and ask for an armistice.

The joker in the deck would be Stalin. Would the Russians take advantage of the poles facing Germany and attack the Polish East? It would be a little out of character for Stalin to take the risk, but he might consider it his best chance to beat the Poles and move the Soviet border several hundred miles west.

Assuming that the Russians do not intervene, Germany would probably not face a real occupation. On the other hand, the military provisions of Versailles will probably be resurrected - the Germans will have strict military limits, again, and be forbidden from putting soldiers in the Rhineland; Danzig might be handed over to Poland, and the Czechs would probably try to claim some territory too.

Germany’s post-war government would take on a very different form. The odds are good that there would be a military dictatorship, at least for a few years. Nazism will have been discredited, as for all Hitler’s promises and military glory and national resurrection the Germans have just suffered another serious defeat that could have ended very badly indeed (and did). The communists were suppressed at the time, but they could rise again with support from Russia and a simple lack of any major challenges from the right and left. Given time, Germany might swing left-wing or evolve a more reasonable government. However, many of the problems caused by Versailles will still exist in this timeline and actually get worse because they lingered longer. The impact of Hitler losing will be migrated over time as the penalties continue to bite.

Without a major European war in 1939, Britain and France have more resources to send to the Far East to deter Japan. The Germans might earn hard currency by selling their skills and military hardware (what remains of it) to the Chinese, which might make life difficult for Japan in other ways. Alternatively, Stalin might decide to provoke a border clash with the Japanese; in our timeline, the Russians taught the Japanese a severe lesson; in ATL, the Russians might invade Manchuria and eventually drive the Japanese back into the sea.

Most powers would probably breathe a sigh of relief when they realise they are spared a major war. The expenditures that doomed Britain France will not take place in this timeline; their empires will be stronger, probably surviving longer. The defeat of Germany might convince both Stalin and Japan that military adventurism will end badly, although both powers would study the war carefully and determine the only reason Germans lost was because they lacked the resources to win.

Minor issues - the Spanish Civil War was still underway at this point. If Germany is unable to continue supplying the fascists, Franco may lose the war or win it under different terms. Italy may demand a higher price for its support, or Mussolini may lose interest - or even lose power if Hitler’s fall emboldens the British and French to do something about the Italians.

What do you think?

 

[Incognitia]

I would strongly expect a military occupation of Germany. Versailles was supposed to stop Germany starting new wars, and it failed in 20 years. If you park an army in Germany they know they lost, you can make them pay for it, and you don't have to allow them a 100,000 man army which can provide cadre for later expansion.

 

[Wendell]

What do you think?

Much of this flies, but they're only going to take on Mussolini if he joins the war on Hitler's side. I agree Poland annexes Danzig if joining the war on the side of the Czechs. However, there may be other border changes favorable to Poland too. The Czechs might gain here what they did from the Germans in OTL, but the real change I see there is a clamping down on the German minority in the country. Anschluss is likely undone, but I think Germany keeps Saarland and won't have the Versailles military restrictions returned.

 

[Charles EP M.]

Much less of Europe is devastated, a lot of people aren't dead or forced abroad, and less trauma: good for those countries, a big demographic change for places people fled to, and less economic gain for America. The USSR doesn't control a chunk of the continent but also hasn't lost twenty nine million people.

 

[Wendell]

Does FDR still seek a third term?

 

[ChrisNuttall]

I would strongly expect a military occupation of Germany. Versailles was supposed to stop Germany starting new wars, and it failed in 20 years. If you park an army in Germany they know they lost, you can make them pay for it, and you don't have to allow them a 100,000 man army which can provide cadre for later expansion.

That's probably true, at least at first, but the last thing they want is a resentful (again) Germany that could easily turn communist ...

Chris

 

[Charles EP M.]

A defeated Germany might not have as large an occupation and overhaul if the war's more contained? Though I guess practically that will look a lot like OTL as industrialists, generals, and officials go "of course I wasn't a Nazi and didn't like Hitler" and carry on

 

[ChrisNuttall]

Much of this flies, but they're only going to take on Mussolini if he joins the war on Hitler's side. I agree Poland annexes Danzig if joining the war on the side of the Czechs. However, there may be other border changes favorable to Poland too. The Czechs might gain here what they did from the Germans in OTL, but the real change I see there is a clamping down on the German minority in the country. Anschluss is likely undone, but I think Germany keeps Saarland and won't have the Versailles military restrictions returned.

Linked to this, two other thoughts:

-Italy wasted a lot of resources on Spain in OTL, with very little to show for it. If they actually spend more in this timeline, with or without the UK/France working up the nerve to tell them to stop, they're not going to be in any shape to fight another war anyway.

-If the Germans are defeated quickly, the UK/France might be feeling more bullish regarding Italy anyway.

Chris

 

[Incognitia]

That's probably true, at least at first, but the last thing they want is a resentful (again) Germany that could easily turn communist ...

Chris

Eh, they're not going to hold off from occupying Germany just because a) the Germans will hate it [that's part of the point] or b) the communists might benefit [the army of occupation will have a monopoly on military force in Germany].

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

Most powers would probably breathe a sigh of relief when they realise they are spared a major war. The expenditures that doomed Britain France will not take place in this timeline; their empires will be stronger, probably surviving longer.

The pretext for decolonisation (the inability to defend your overseas colonies) disappears, but the economic problems of Empire persist. France will hang onto Algeria much longer.

Also, Neville Chamberlain would die shortly after achieving victory, which leaves an interesting choice for who leads the Conservatives/National Government in the 1941 GE.

 

[Wendell]

Linked to this, two other thoughts:

-Italy wasted a lot of resources on Spain in OTL, with very little to show for it. If they actually spend more in this timeline, with or without the UK/France working up the nerve to tell them to stop, they're not going to be in any shape to fight another war anyway.

-If the Germans are defeated quickly, the UK/France might be feeling more bullish regarding Italy anyway.

Chris

Feeling bullish is not enough to instigate a war. But Benito will need to behave.

 

[raharris1973]

The joker in the deck would be Stalin. Would the Russians take advantage of the poles facing Germany and attack the Polish East? It would be a little out of character for Stalin to take the risk, but he might consider it his best chance to beat the Poles and move the Soviet border several hundred miles west.

Assuming that the Russians do not intervene, Germany would probably not face a real occupation.

This makes it sound like the Russians are the key variable in whether Germany faces an occupation - Russian quiet and still, no occupation, Russians attack Poland, they move assumedly move on to Germany. ---I do not think we can count on that.

I think the key variables determining whether we see a postwar occupation of Germany will be more dependent on whether the French have the will determination to carry one out and the British and Dominions are prepared to build up and reinforce to support this in the face of German last ditch resistance, and whether or not a regime change occurs that removes Hitler and has the new German regime offer enough concessions the western Allies convince themselves this time Versailles-like restrictions will work.

The last point will be difficult to convince the French and British of.

But a Russian intervention in eastern Poland, by itself, does not guarantee a Russian attack upon, or occupation of Berlin and eastern Germany. A Russian attack on Poland would if anything be a bit of an embarrassment for the anti-Hitler coalition. Its first military and territorial objectives would be seizing eastern Poland, before it could get any further. We do not know how quickly the Soviets could succeed at that, but it is not a western objective. The Poles could fight a parallel war separate from the Nazis vs. Czechs, France and Britain fight in this instance, or align with the Germans. Once the Soviets have Polish Galicia, is their priority for further forward movement to go beyond territory their claim for their Ukraine and Belarus SSRs to march into Warsaw, central Poland, western Poland, East Prussia, Danzig, and Berlin? Or would it be to funnel forces through Slovakia to Bohemia and Sudetenland? Or is he just wanting to grab land to the Curzon line and sit there? Neither of these courses of action would be fast, and Stalin's ability to accept a half-measured compromise while trying to do this and facing higher than expected costs is as great as the French or British ability to do the same in the west. We shouldn't expect Soviet forces of 1938, 1939, 1940 to be so well-oiled and effective as to march through and run over the Polish and German armed forces with the speed and strength of the Soviet forces of historic 1944 and 1945, even though their enemies will also be very much weaker.

 

[raharris1973]

... they're only going to take on Mussolini if he joins the war on Hitler's side.

Absolutely agree with this

I agree Poland annexes Danzig if joining the war on the side of the Czechs. However, there may be other border changes favorable to Poland too.

See, I wonder if the Poles even feel like they can afford to commit to war with the Germans if they are worried about a potential Soviet attack, or if they end up under actual Soviet attack by Soviets claiming disputed territory, or Soviets claiming they have to march through Polish Galicia to come to the aid of the Poles. The Soviets actually marching in without permission (which the Poles would never give) might actually force Poland to join the German and anti-Czech side!

The Czechs might gain here what they did from the Germans in OTL

Which was what?

but the real change I see there is a clamping down on the German minority in the country.

I would think so

Anschluss is likely undone, but I think Germany keeps Saarland and won't have the Versailles military restrictions returned.

So you are actually suggesting an outcome that is a German defeat in terms of containment and partial territorial rollback, but actually an easier peace than Versailles, without a restoration of the Versailles military restrictions, loss of Saar, possibly no mandatory regime change. To the French and British this will very much feel like "maintenance" of Germany rather than a "victory". So many of them won't like it. But maybe they'll take it.

-Italy wasted a lot of resources on Spain in OTL, with very little to show for it. If they actually spend more in this timeline, with or without the UK/France working up the nerve to tell them to stop, they're not going to be in any shape to fight another war anyway.

-If the Germans are defeated quickly, the UK/France might be feeling more bullish regarding Italy anyway.

Good points - Italy in any case wasn't look to hunt, but to scavenge. It wouldn't find Germany leaving carcasses to scavenge from, so Italy would sit around like a paper tiger, not really menacing Britain or France. But they wouldn't casually start conflict with Italy to take occupied lands from her either.

Feeling bullish is not enough to instigate a war. But Benito will need to behave.

Basically, agreed.

The pretext for decolonisation (the inability to defend your overseas colonies) disappears, but the economic problems of Empire persist. France will hang onto Algeria much longer.

Also, Neville Chamberlain would die shortly after achieving victory, which leaves an interesting choice for who leads the Conservatives/National Government in the 1941 GE.

I think this works for France, possibly Netherlands, but not as much for Britain.

Demand and concession toward Indian home rule was already coming with it envisioned as a mid or late 1940s thing. Egyptian independence was due by 1944, which will reinforce Middle East independence desires. So British Middle East and Asia should be on a similar track to independence. Sub-Saharan Africa, Oceania, and Caribbean may be slower. The US is still setting an example with Filipino independence in 1945.

I expect the French to be more stubborn -- over Algeria of course, which they always held closest, but also over Indochina, especially as it is much less likely to ever be lost to Japanese occupation (and the Dutch are unlikely to have their rules over the East Indies interrupted). But even the French will have difficulties by mid-1944 when they pledged the independence of their Syria and Lebanon mandates. They'll probably try to go back on it or dilute on it, but that will cause fighting with the locals.

On British politics, yes, would be interesting to see who replaces Chamberlain among the Conservatives. At the same time, it might end up semi-irrelevant...Labour may win the 1941 GE with voters just ready for change. On the one hand the war is shorter and there is less time for Labour to be in government practice roles, and the history of appeasement is shorter and less embarrassing, but the 30s and Depression still were not glorious for Britain, Britons of all classes will have a feeling of having done their bit and want the rewards of society, and positive war records may not impress so much when voters want to turn to unmet domestic needs. Indeed to the extent there is any belief the war might have been unnecessary, Conservatives might suffer from *that*.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Maybe this?

 

[Wendell]

Maybe this?

View attachment 77728

Those gains for Poland are too much and likely are for the Czechs as well.

 

[Wendell]

See, I wonder if the Poles even feel like they can afford to commit to war with the Germans if they are worried about a potential Soviet attack, or if they end up under actual Soviet attack by Soviets claiming disputed territory, or Soviets claiming they have to march through Polish Galicia to come to the aid of the Poles. The Soviets actually marching in without permission (which the Poles would never give) might actually force Poland to join the German and anti-Czech side!


Which was what?


I would think so


So you are actually suggesting an outcome that is a German defeat in terms of containment and partial territorial rollback, but actually an easier peace than Versailles, without a restoration of the Versailles military restrictions, loss of Saar, possibly no mandatory regime change. To the French and British this will very much feel like "maintenance" of Germany rather than a "victory". So many of them won't like it. But maybe they'll take it.

Polish non-involvement seems the likeliest outcome. Even siding with Germany could threaten Soviet involvement. Now, Hungarian intervention might be possible though it too is unlikely, and that could drag in Romania and/or the USSR. Not likely, but possible.

I was thinking that Hlučín Region had been ceded after World War II, not World War I. However, Kladsko could be in the cards given its historical links ad geography.

I am suggesting that Britain and France would want Germany to be a normal state and one helpful in keeping Stalin boxed in. Losing Austria and some border areas to the Czechs and Poles is losing the war, and given the appetites of OTL 1938, no one is seriously interested in permanently weakening Berlin with Communism looming large and Italy and Japan trying to punch above their weight.