Possibility of pre-WW1 Polish independence?

[Radac]

As we're all aware, Poland became independent after WW1, following more than 100 years of rule under (mostly) the Russians. Before WW1 began however, there was of course a well-known rebellion in 1905 concurrently with Russia, before which there was the January Uprising in 1863, the Greater Poland uprising of 1846, the November Uprising of 1830 and some more along the way.

Could any of these Polish uprisings have succeeded due to international support or pressure - perhaps as a cause célèbre the same way Greece ended up being in the 1820s or even the Boers for that matter - or a lack of Russian intransigence? What kind of Polish state would we have seen and what kind of effect would this have on Europe as a whole? And would international powers be willing to aid such a rebellion in the first place?

 

[Geordie]

Poland is in a rather difficult position, as it's not just Russia that needs to fall. If Russia does enter complete anarchy sufficient for the Poles to throw off the shackles, the position over the border have a vested interest in Poland not being a Thing. And that's before we consider Vienna's own reasons to keep the idea of Polish statehood down.

Greece had many friends, few enemies, and a way of the former reaching them. A Polish uprising is pretty much the reverse.

Not impossible, of course, but significantly more difficult than Greece, I think.

 

[Stikfigur]

Poland is in a rather difficult position, as it's not just Russia that needs to fall. If Russia does enter complete anarchy sufficient for the Poles to throw off the shackles, the position over the border have a vested interest in Poland not being a Thing. And that's before we consider Vienna's own reasons to keep the idea of Polish statehood down.

Greece had many friends, few enemies, and a way of the former reaching them. A Polish uprising is pretty much the reverse.

Not impossible, of course, but significantly more difficult than Greece, I think.

Esp considering that Poland was surrounded by Germans and Austrians too.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

If Austria collapses entirely in 1848, Galicia-Lodomeria and Krakow could be a Russian Satellite.

Germany and Austria could perhaps prop up an independent Poland in the 1904-1905 Revolution. It would be a satellite state of the two, but still more independent than Congress Poland/Vistula Land had been.

 

[Wendell]

Your best chance is a different resolution to the Polish-Saxon Crisis.

 

[raharris1973]

Your best chance is a different resolution to the Polish-Saxon Crisis.

Really? How do you see an alternate outcome helping Poland become a truly independent nation or rebel successfully? Because in the immediate term, I do not see that as the outcome, nor what the Russians or Prussians were aiming for (nor the Austrians) - a different resolution to the crisis might put more, or even all, of the Poles under one Crown, but it would be a Crown worn by the Tsar of Russia.

Germany and Austria could perhaps prop up an independent Poland in the 1904-1905 Revolution. It would be a satellite state of the two, but still more independent than Congress Poland/Vistula Land had been.

This - it would be a gutsy, risky, out-of-character move for both the Austro-Hungarians and the Germans, but one they could decide to take if they synthesized the long-term realities that Russia was solidly and immovably attached to its French alliance, and tied up with Balkan Slavic clients that could all easily bring it into conflict with Austria and Germany, and the short-term reality that Russia was quite vulnerable at this time based on class and national divisions, and poor foreign relations with Japan, Britain, and the USA.

Compared with the danger post-war recovered Russia was likely to become, the danger that a puppet Poland made from the Russian partition would cut its strings from its masters in Berlin and Vienna and go rogue to claim their portions of the Polish partition was a much lesser danger.

Austria-Hungary might have known this all along, but lacked the power to act on its own, and Franz-Ferdinand, heir to the throne, was always a softie, at least against anyone not Italian. For the Germans, the final clue that reconciliation and final transformation to a positive relationship with Russia was *not* going to work should have been clear when the Tsar wrote back in 1905 saying "sorry, my Ministers told me I can't follow through on that deal we made on the yacht at Bjorko until the French agree." On reading that, the German government, including the Kaiser, should have considered Russia dead to Germany.

 

[Wendell]

Really? How do you see an alternate outcome helping Poland become a truly independent nation or rebel successfully? Because in the immediate term, I do not see that as the outcome, nor what the Russians or Prussians were aiming for (nor the Austrians) - a different resolution to the crisis might put more, or even all, of the Poles under one Crown, but it would be a Crown worn by the Tsar of Russia.


This - it would be a gutsy, risky, out-of-character move for both the Austro-Hungarians and the Germans, but one they could decide to take if they synthesized the long-term realities that Russia was solidly and immovably attached to its French alliance, and tied up with Balkan Slavic clients that could all easily bring it into conflict with Austria and Germany, and the short-term reality that Russia was quite vulnerable at this time based on class and national divisions, and poor foreign relations with Japan, Britain, and the USA.

Compared with the danger post-war recovered Russia was likely to become, the danger that a puppet Poland made from the Russian partition would cut its strings from its masters in Berlin and Vienna and go rogue to claim their portions of the Polish partition was a much lesser danger.

Austria-Hungary might have known this all along, but lacked the power to act on its own, and Franz-Ferdinand, heir to the throne, was always a softie, at least against anyone not Italian. For the Germans, the final clue that reconciliation and final transformation to a positive relationship with Russia was *not* going to work should have been clear when the Tsar wrote back in 1905 saying "sorry, my Ministers told me I can't follow through on that deal we made on the yacht at Bjorko until the French agree." On reading that, the German government, including the Kaiser, should have considered Russia dead to Germany.

Prussia wanted Saxony, Austria did not wand Russian domination of Poland, and Britain wanted Polish independence. If Austria acquiesces on Saxony, give the Wettins Congress Poland, and Alexander backs down not wanting to risk war with the whole continent.

Another idea: Maybe Polish independence is achievable in a Crimean War that goes worse for Russia?

 

[raharris1973]

Prussia wanted Saxony, Austria did not wand Russian domination of Poland, and Britain wanted Polish independence. If Austria acquiesces on Saxony, give the Wettins Congress Poland, and Alexander backs down not wanting to risk war with the whole continent.

It's an idea. Austrians probably hated the idea of an all-Prussian Saxony even a bit worse than a Russian central Poland though. The Prussians under Freddy had invaded them through Saxony to attack Prague and the Vienna area a few times previously, central Poland wasn't comfy, but still relatively further away from Budapest and especially Vienna.

Also, a *really, really* hard sell for Alexander. This is the guy who thinks he saved Europe and got his army all the way to Paris smashing Napoleon, and he gets no improvement on his strategic border in Central Europe. Tough to convince to come back empty-handed in the Polish area. Would demand some sweet, sweet compensation. Most likely, valuable choices for Alexander's Russia would be the Ottoman Danubian provinces, but their proximity to Constantinople and straits and semi-autonomous Serbia would make both Austria *and* Britain (not to mention the Ottomans) hate this idea even worse! Then what else is there? Gift Russia all of Sweden? Wiping it out to revive Poland wouldn't be a good strategic trade to Britain.

Another idea: Maybe Polish independence is achievable in a Crimean War that goes worse for Russia?

Sure, if Austria-Hungary becomes an actual belligerent onside with the Anglo-French Ottomans, it could be enough. The Anglo-French are sympathetic to the idea, and despite the potential Galician complications, the Austrians see it as important protection for their left flank against Russian vengeance.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

This - it would be a gutsy, risky, out-of-character move for both the Austro-Hungarians and the Germans, but one they could decide to take if they synthesized the long-term realities that Russia was solidly and immovably attached to its French alliance, and tied up with Balkan Slavic clients that could all easily bring it into conflict with Austria and Germany, and the short-term reality that Russia was quite vulnerable at this time based on class and national divisions, and poor foreign relations with Japan, Britain, and the USA.

Compared with the danger post-war recovered Russia was likely to become, the danger that a puppet Poland made from the Russian partition would cut its strings from its masters in Berlin and Vienna and go rogue to claim their portions of the Polish partition was a much lesser danger.

Austria-Hungary might have known this all along, but lacked the power to act on its own, and Franz-Ferdinand, heir to the throne, was always a softie, at least against anyone not Italian. For the Germans, the final clue that reconciliation and final transformation to a positive relationship with Russia was *not* going to work should have been clear when the Tsar wrote back in 1905 saying "sorry, my Ministers told me I can't follow through on that deal we made on the yacht at Bjorko until the French agree." On reading that, the German government, including the Kaiser, should have considered Russia dead to Germany.

Austria could perhaps bolster its own position by ceding Galicia-Lodomeria (or western Galicia-Lodomeria) to Poland and placing Archduke Charles Stephen or Archduke Albrecht on the Polish throne.

 

[Wendell]

Austria could perhaps bolster its own position by ceding Galicia-Lodomeria (or western Galicia-Lodomeria) to Poland and placing Archduke Charles Stephen or Archduke Albrecht on the Polish throne.

Or cede nothing, but demand a Hapsburg on the throne, and then see Poland and Russia carve up Galicia when Hungary breaks away in an alternate 1867.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Or cede nothing, but demand a Hapsburg on the throne, and then see Poland and Russia carve up Galicia when Hungary breaks away in an alternate 1867.

That's a separate what if from the one I was considering (Revolution of 1905).

Also, maybe a Hohenzollern Poland in 1831? The Grand Duchy of Posen could absorb Congress Poland.

Or, Prussia figures it would be a good time for an alternate version of the Polish-Saxon exchange. Prussia was still proposing to swap Rhineland for Saxony in the 1820s. An 1831 three-way swap of Prussia backing the Poles of Vistula Land, ceding Posen to this Polish Kingdom, annexing Saxony, and placing the King of Saxony on the Polish throne could perhaps work.

 

[raharris1973]

Also, maybe a Hohenzollern Poland in 1831? The Grand Duchy of Posen could absorb Congress Poland.

Was Grand Duke of Posen a secondary title of the King of Prussia at the time? Sounds like a pretty gutsy Prussian move to grab Vistula Land from the from the King of Poland/Tsar of Russia, Nicholas I, even if the Polish subjects were rebelling against him. What might convince the Hohenzollern King of Prussia/Duke of Posen to take on that challenge and would any other powers back him up, giving him encouragement and steadiness in the quest?

Or, Prussia figures it would be a good time for an alternate version of the Polish-Saxon exchange. Prussia was still proposing to swap Rhineland for Saxony in the 1820s. An 1831 three-way swap of Prussia backing the Poles of Vistula Land, ceding Posen to this Polish Kingdom, annexing Saxony, and placing the King of Saxony on the Polish throne could perhaps work.

So, in this one, Prussia gains all of juicy Saxony, but does not have to sacrifice any of Rhineland or Westphalia. Well, nice deal if you can get it. The King of Saxony basically cedes Saxony to be King of a new Polish realm (Congress Poland plus the Grand Duchy of Posen) that sizes up to be the same as the Napoleonic era Grand Duchy of Warsaw. Given the GDP per acre, not a great deal for the Wettins, certainly not as good as Saxony for Rhineland, but I get the Wettiins wouldn't be the driver here but more the consoled recipient of the deal.

Here again, quite gutsy of Prussia to take on Russia in 1830-31, especially in the age of Nicholas I, after his victories against the Turks, and before his weaknesses are revealed in the Crimean War.

This would seem to require a novel reversal of alliances away from the historic collaboration of the three eastern autocracies, to Prussia aligning with more liberal Britain and July Monarchy France and getting their support to push back the Romanovs in Poland (using the Wettins as an instrument) against the certain opposition of Russia, and near certain opposition of Metternichian Austria which will dislike political change in general, Polish restoration in particular, and an entirely Prussian-owned Saxony along the length of its Bohemian border most of all.

 

[fluttersky]

My immediate thought is that in 1867, the formation of Austria-Hungary could have seen the creation of Galicia as a third constituent kingdom of the union if things had gone a bit differently, with Austrian Poland having the same level of independence that Hungary did at that time. Then, when it comes down to all the agreements in the late 19th century where Russia is trying to expand into Bulgaria and Armenia whilst Britain+Austria are trying to maintain the balance of power, it shouldn't be too hard to reach a scenario where Russia cedes Congress Poland to Austrian Poland in return for the great powers accepting what Russia wants in the Balkans/Armenia (especially if there had been a rebellion in Congress Poland making it more of an effort to keep under Russian control).

This wouldn't be a fully independent Poland, but it would be a Polish state with a large degree of independence, covering most of the areas inhabited by Poles.