No Iraq War - how much longer does Blair get?

[Elektronaut]

So that’s conceivably 18 years of Blair. Handing over the reins to Euan in 2015?

Put your hands above the desk.

 

[Blackadder Mk2]

So that’s conceivably 18 years of Blair. Handing over the reins to Euan in 2015?

Depends on how 2014/5 go. People would be tired of a Labour government and I suspect a lot of Labour people would be tired of Tony. If he stays on, it might be the point where a lot of left-wing voters decide to go Green or stay home. Considering McCluskey dropped hints that he'd cut off some of the dosh in 2010 IOTL, one where Blair may try to steal Gove's clothing and raise tuition fees is going to set the cat amongst the pigeons ITTL. If the LibDems are in coalition ITTL, you might see a Green surge.

Naturally, it depends on whether the Tories look credible. A defeat in 2009/2010 and the Euro crisis is going to see the same push for an EU Referendum as OTL. Cameron might be able to resist it better when in Opposition, but if voters head for UKIP and people start wondering if he can actually win an election, he may u-turn. Don't forget that the Arab Spring may not be butterflied and this is Tony Blair in a world where liberal-interventionism hasn't been discredited.

If Blair survives 2009/10, he'll go on until he loses, which I suspect would be 2014/15. By that time, if it's a Hung Parliament after a small Labour majority, he may finally stand down for David to lead a Lab-Lib Coalition if the numbers work.

 

[AlfieJ]

EDIT - Actually what's the biggest Blair wank we could get? So we copy @The Red and have Blair hold off the 2001 election until after 9/11 due to foot and mouth, leading to Labour being on, what, 450? 470? And then no Iraq, so maybe down to 400 in 2005?

There is a few fun scenarios with this. If the Edwina Currie scandal breaks just before polling day in 1997 you get something far worse for the Tories, potentially hitting their core base in terms of numbers, somewhere between 80 to 120 seats.
Another particularly iconic scenario from @The Red.

- 1992 is a hung parliament with the Tories a strong enough distance away from Labour to cobble together a minority govt with plans for an October election. Kinnock finally packs it in and is swiftly replaced by John Smith.
- Wheels are already in motion for the election when Black Wednesday really knackers things for the Tories. John Smith leads labour back into office in a landslide of almost OTL 1997 proportions.
- Smith drops down dead quite suddenly in 1994, leading to only higher sympathetic poll ratings for the Labour government. Margaret Beckett leads in an acting capacity before handing over to the incredibly handsome and progressive home secretary Tony Blair.

Crack on from there...