Jackson Lennock
Well-known member
Japan failing to get North Sakhalin ended up becoming a Japanese version of the vittoria mutilata - the mutilated victory. The Japanese public was unaware of Japan's dire financial position by the end of the Russo-Japanese War, and so didn't understand why the Japanese government didn't demand more.
Japan ended up with only half of Sakhalin and no reparations. What if Japan accepted the August 23 proposal and ended up with all of Sakhalin?
The Japanese public would still be skeptical of the West because of the Tripartite Intervention, but there I see a few knock-ons.
(i) The Japanese public and militarist-minded members of the public and government will still distrust France, Russia, and Germany because of the Tripartite Intervention following the Sino-Japanese War. But there won't be as must distrust and frustration directed towards the Japanese government without the failure to secure all of Sakhalin. Getting North Sakhalin would help secure the legitimacy and stability of liberal and sort of democratic Japanese governance.
(ii) The Treaty of Portsmouth was mediated by the American President Theodore Roosevelt, and so many Japanese started to distrust/dislike the United States because they figured the Americans deprived Japan of their rightful war gains.
(iii) Japan would have developed North Sakhalin more than Russia did. OTL Japan had over 400,000 people in its half of Sakhalin in 1941 and North Sakhalin was pretty empty and undeveloped. If Japan is focusing on developing North Sakhalin, it probably finds the oil there.
(iv) North Sakhalin had and has oil. Under the Soviet Union, Japan even was the one that developed the oil fields in cooperation with the Soviets. Coal and manganese were mined there since the 1920s too. The big oil and gas fields were only discovered in the 1990s, however, and it is possible that Japan would find them much earlier.
(v) Even if Japan still became just as militarist and expansionist as OTL - it's possible Japan loses less territory following WWII. Without troops in North Sakhalin, the Soviets might not be able to capture Sakhalin at all. And even if they capture Sakhalin, they probably won't be able to make it to the Kurils (or, alternatively, the Americans beat them to the Kurils).
Japan ended up with only half of Sakhalin and no reparations. What if Japan accepted the August 23 proposal and ended up with all of Sakhalin?
The Japanese public would still be skeptical of the West because of the Tripartite Intervention, but there I see a few knock-ons.
(i) The Japanese public and militarist-minded members of the public and government will still distrust France, Russia, and Germany because of the Tripartite Intervention following the Sino-Japanese War. But there won't be as must distrust and frustration directed towards the Japanese government without the failure to secure all of Sakhalin. Getting North Sakhalin would help secure the legitimacy and stability of liberal and sort of democratic Japanese governance.
(ii) The Treaty of Portsmouth was mediated by the American President Theodore Roosevelt, and so many Japanese started to distrust/dislike the United States because they figured the Americans deprived Japan of their rightful war gains.
(iii) Japan would have developed North Sakhalin more than Russia did. OTL Japan had over 400,000 people in its half of Sakhalin in 1941 and North Sakhalin was pretty empty and undeveloped. If Japan is focusing on developing North Sakhalin, it probably finds the oil there.
(iv) North Sakhalin had and has oil. Under the Soviet Union, Japan even was the one that developed the oil fields in cooperation with the Soviets. Coal and manganese were mined there since the 1920s too. The big oil and gas fields were only discovered in the 1990s, however, and it is possible that Japan would find them much earlier.
(v) Even if Japan still became just as militarist and expansionist as OTL - it's possible Japan loses less territory following WWII. Without troops in North Sakhalin, the Soviets might not be able to capture Sakhalin at all. And even if they capture Sakhalin, they probably won't be able to make it to the Kurils (or, alternatively, the Americans beat them to the Kurils).
