Jackson Lennock
Well-known member
France was interested in an alliance with Japan against China as early as 1883, prior to the start of the Sino-French War. After the Taiwan expedition didn't go as planned, the French reached out to Japan seeking an alliance. The French Ambassador was even instructed to make an offer in 1884, but he was so opposed to the idea that he did not even pass the message along. Still, Japan took advantage of the conflict to support the Gapsin Coup in 1884. The deteriorating situation in Korea opened up the possibility of Russia joining the war too.
What if the Sino-French War became a three-way carving up of China?
France was interested in the Pescadores (Penghu) and Formosa (Taiwan), and perhaps Hainan as well. Japan may want Taiwan, but in 1884/1885 probably doesn't have the muscle to insist upon it. Taiwan doesn't add much for France though beyond what the Pescadores already provide though. But there's also Yunnan, which France had some interest in. Taking Yunnan would create a direct land connection between still-independent Upper Burma (which had relations with the French, and Britain feared a protectorate being established over) and French Indochina.
Russia gobbling up Manchuria east of the Liao River seems probable.
Japan may have wanted Taiwan, but was more interested in keeping China and Russia out of Korea. A modernized Korea that's either Japan-aligned or an East Asian Belgium seems a possibility. France's main offer to Japan was assistance in undoing the unequal treaties. If Japan gets anything from China, my guess is that it would be in Shandong or Zhejiang - where there is no conflict of interest with France (South China) or Russia (Manchuria).
But, America and Britain would likely be very annoyed if France is gobbling up big chunks of East Asia. There could be a big diplomatic intervention. Maybe Taiwan is handed over to Japan to avoid the issue or made into a second neutral and independent country a la Korea.
Blue is France
Green is Russia
Red is Japan
Purple is Korea (Neutral)
Taiwan I marked off to show that I'm unsure of who gets it.
What if the Sino-French War became a three-way carving up of China?
France was interested in the Pescadores (Penghu) and Formosa (Taiwan), and perhaps Hainan as well. Japan may want Taiwan, but in 1884/1885 probably doesn't have the muscle to insist upon it. Taiwan doesn't add much for France though beyond what the Pescadores already provide though. But there's also Yunnan, which France had some interest in. Taking Yunnan would create a direct land connection between still-independent Upper Burma (which had relations with the French, and Britain feared a protectorate being established over) and French Indochina.
Russia gobbling up Manchuria east of the Liao River seems probable.
Japan may have wanted Taiwan, but was more interested in keeping China and Russia out of Korea. A modernized Korea that's either Japan-aligned or an East Asian Belgium seems a possibility. France's main offer to Japan was assistance in undoing the unequal treaties. If Japan gets anything from China, my guess is that it would be in Shandong or Zhejiang - where there is no conflict of interest with France (South China) or Russia (Manchuria).
But, America and Britain would likely be very annoyed if France is gobbling up big chunks of East Asia. There could be a big diplomatic intervention. Maybe Taiwan is handed over to Japan to avoid the issue or made into a second neutral and independent country a la Korea.
Blue is France
Green is Russia
Red is Japan
Purple is Korea (Neutral)
Taiwan I marked off to show that I'm unsure of who gets it.