Independent Philippines in 1823

[Ricardolindo]

What if Andrés Novales's revolt in 1823 had succeeded at creating an independence Philippines?
What would Novales have done with the Muslim sultanates in Mindanao?
Also, what would happen to the Mariana Islands which were also under Spanish rule?

 

[Jackson Lennock]

What if Andrés Novales's revolt in 1823 had succeeded at creating an independence Philippines?

Spain would be even more embarrassed. I'm unsure if an 1823 Philippines could or would remain a single country though.

What would Novales have done with the Muslim sultanates in Mindanao?

A better question might be what could he have done with the Muslim sultanates in Mindanao?

Sulu was an independent Country until 1851. The other Sultanates might take the whole island if the independent country cannot do anything about it.

Also, what would happen to the Mariana Islands which were also under Spanish rule?

Spain either keeps them or sells them. France probably buys them in 1837.


Orleanist France came close to purchasing Cuba, Puerto Rico, and the the Philippines according to David Tenner. The French haggling over the price of the Philippines killed the deal. No Philippines = no haggling over price = France buys the remaining Spanish East indies (plus Cuba and Puerto Rico).

"Though historians waited a century to learn this facet of Palmerston's thinking late in 1836, an interesting account was published by the Fortnightly Review in 1895 telling 'How Cuba might have belonged to France.' In January of 1837, so the story ran, on the initiative of Queen Cristina, the Spanish banker in Paris, Aguado, approached Talleyrand to arrange talks on a scheme for France to buy Cuba for thirty million reals with Puerto Rico and the Philippine Islands for another ten million. The French would need to float a loan for this, and from the resultant commissions Aguado, Talleyrand, and others would profit personally. There seemed to be agreement and an envoy, Campuzano, arrived from Madrid to onclude the negotiations. Just as the documents were to be signed, Louis Philippe demanded a reduction of three million reals in the price of the Philippines because, he declared, their acquisition could well embroil France in a war with Great Britain. When the French king began to haggle over the price, Campuzano, who had disliked his task all along, became indignant, and tossed the documents into the fire, ending the negotiations. All the talks had been conducted in overtones of dread that Palmerston might discover what was afoot. Complete secrecy had been insisted upon and only through Talleyrand's secretary, Colmache, was the story eventually published in 1895. Cristina herself was to take full responsibility for the negotiations should word somehow get out, and, considering Palmerston's efforts at this time to raise money for her, we may well understand the Queen's feelings of apprehension.

 

[raharris1973]

Spain would be even more embarrassed. I'm unsure if an 1823 Philippines could or would remain a single country though.




A better question might be what could he have done with the Muslim sultanates in Mindanao?

Sulu was an independent Country until 1851. The other Sultanates might take the whole island if the independent country cannot do anything about it.



Spain either keeps them or sells them. France probably buys them in 1837.


Orleanist France came close to purchasing Cuba, Puerto Rico, and the the Philippines according to David Tenner. The French haggling over the price of the Philippines killed the deal. No Philippines = no haggling over price = France buys the remaining Spanish East indies (plus Cuba and Puerto Rico).

Look at France trying to be the big Baller in 1837....so cute.

Well, fresh from conquering mighty Algeria. And only two years from standing with Muhammad Ali against the rest of Europe, sorta, not really, but thinking about it. And threatening invade the Rhine or Italy (Thiers).

So maybe France could buy some stuff and get a colonial head start, or it could be a prelude to 'the next war of British colonial thieving' as Britain goes to war and confiscates whatever is purchased.

Well actually, while in theory, I suppose, if one squints at it, I could just imagine Britain declaring war on France over its acquisition of some famous colonial real estate, once occupied (briefly) by Britain like the Philippines, and possibly Cuba, I feel like Palmerston would find a mere transfer of the Marianas and other Micronesian islands (or even Puerto Rico) too small and insignificant to fight over, in an independent Philippines scenario.

Knock-on effects of a more expansive France in this period are interesting though. I would think that French occupation of the Marianas from the late 1830s would make repeated French attempts to 'open' Japan in the 1840s super likely. Seems like one would be bound to succeed before Perry comes into the picture or the 1850s. Greeater French activity in the Far East may tempt France to participate in the Opium War on Britain's side as a fellow profiteer. If France expands its foothold in the Caribbean, with either Puerto Rico or Cuba, I wonder if that tempts them into doing a no kidding reconquest of Haiti.

 

[raharris1973]

Orleanist France came close to purchasing Cuba, Puerto Rico,

I know it's a bit of a tangent to focus on this, but this brings up an interesting point. If Orleanist France successfully acquired Cuba and Puerto Rico by purchase from Spain, in the face of any possible local resistance, or American or British objections or resistance, and everything else remained equal, this could have some interesting knock-on consequences.

Assuming the 1848 June Revolution still happens in France on time, Slavery is abolish nearly 40 years early in Cuba and however many years early in Puerto Rico. Cuba abolishing slavery before the USA does will have important repercussions for US politics.

 

[raharris1973]

What if Andrés Novales's revolt in 1823 had succeeded at creating an independence Philippines?
What would Novales have done with the Muslim sultanates in Mindanao?
Also, what would happen to the Mariana Islands which were also under Spanish rule?

I always thought this PoD was an interesting idea. And considering Spanish American independence revolts succeeded, it does not seem like it should be impossible. An interesting aspect of it is that it creates a 'post-colonial' state in East Asia, when in pre-colonial times, or when colonialism in that region is only superficially and slowly getting started. The potential for confusion and ambiguity of meanings is even greater if the independent Philippines names an 'Emperor' as its head of state instead of a Presidente or King, because the Philippines will be located in a region of Emperors - the Emperor of China, the Emperor of Japan, the Emperor of Vietnam, but Filipino 'imperial' forms would be even more influenced by European concepts of the office and Emperor and Empire, both the Napoleonic tradition and the Habsburg Holy Roman Empire tradition, than Asian traditions, because of the islands 250 year association with Europeans and Catholicism. Observers from China, Japan, Vietnam, Korea, Okinawa, Siam, on seeing the Filipino state would think - These islands say they have an Emperor, but he sure isn't treated like, revered like an Emperor - no eunuchs, no concubines, no religious ceremonies.