Incas win

[Ricardolindo]

The Spanish conquest of the Inca Empire was the result of incredible luck. What if it had failed? The Inca Empire was far from Spain and its moutainous terrain was highly defendable. I think holding on to the coast may be unfeasible in the long term, though, if the Spaniards want it.

 

[Gary Oswald]

There was a really good though sadly unfinished timeline on this by @King of the Uzbeks.

Obviously fiction is fiction and speculation can often come to different conclusions due to not having to be interesting. But I really liked the conclusion of that timeline of the Spanish conquest still happening due to the weight of numbers and the ravages of smallpox but being delayed and far less successful. With much more of the Incan state left intact and ready to rise up due to Spain having to play much softer.

I don't think you can easily reach a point where the Incans can just ignore Spain. Anymore than say 19th century China could ignore the UK and France. But an uneasy balance of power with the Spanish having to listen to and deal with the Sapas because a war could hurt both sides, worked for me.