If Zeng Guofan did seize the throne, could he arrest the decline of China?

[Octosteel]

I think that a lesson here may be that Western fears of a Chinese-Japanese alliance to overthrow Europe and America might not have been entirely based in reality.

Well yeah. Sino Japanese coalition isn't going to be landing in San Francisco Bay anytime soon but I think a level of cooperation between China and Japan and some organic Pan Asian anti colonialist sentiment rising isn't out of the question. And of course it would be completely blown out of proportion. I imagine Wilhelm II would especially attempt some shenanigans since he was absolutely terrified of some Asian threat and had been eying colonies in China forever.

On a different note, I've been examining the possibile results of a Sino Russian war and uh, it doesn't look good for the Chinese. It's just too large of a front with Russians probably being able to seize Xinjiang without too much a of problem. I don't think Zeng could reform the entire military to the level he needed by then instead of just certain armies that would be planted more in the east anyway.

Also what could be interesting is if Japan's ambitions in Korea are checked and there's a sort of informal agreement with China, there's still options for Japan to expand, specifically a certain colony owned by a third rate power. That's right, the Philippines! But interesting, Germany was also really interested in getting the Philippines. So you have that as a potential point of conflict if one can get there before the other.

 

[Octosteel]

This is a big bump but I didn't want to create a new topic and wasn't sure if we have a rule against it on this much smaller forum.

One issue with this idea is Zeng just doesn't seem like the type to go for it. As noted, his Confucian views and lack of desire for power even as he ruthlessly went through this war seems paradoxical but makes sense in that he acts when given a task and once the task is over, wishes to return. However, lets say Zeng Guofan died somehow and his brother Zeng Guoquan took over. Zeng Guoquan was far more ambitious, saw power much more as something to be desired, and also prideful, worried about who would get the credit for the siege of Nanjing and not wanting Li Hongzhang from getting it. Zeng Guofan had even admonished his brother's attempt to expand his own economic powers, saying "Military commanders who have usurped fiscal power have never brought anything but evil to the country and harm to their own families."

But as others noted, even if one of the brothers take over, they're still pretty traditional types even if they embrace western technology. Would they manage to successfully reform things? Would they even go for a more Han based nationalism for China or keep the Manchu clothing and customs and structures? Presumably the former but maybe others can jump in.

And a new unknown dynasty, already suspicious of Western influence and known in the west for brutality, one wonders if there is a possibility for escalation in conflict between the West. Historically, Zeng Guofan after the Taiping Rebellion when he was tasked with negotiating with the West over a massacre of Catholic priests, he was fairly conciliatory, but that seems more out of necessity. As noted, he was deeply suspicious of the west and rightfully so. Also there was talk in the 1860s of the British just directly seizing the treaty ports and when the Western powers want something, usually all the negotiations in the world unless some seriously heavy concessions are given tend to work out. So it's very possible things actually get worse although I tend to lean towards better.

 

[SenatorChickpea]

I wonder if Li Hongzhang might be a better candidate; in his talent and ambition he was something of a blend of the Zeng brothers.

 

[Octosteel]

I wonder if Li Hongzhang might be a better candidate; in his talent and ambition he was something of a blend of the Zeng brothers.

I guess part of the problem is you need someone frustrated enough to actually go for it but also not too Confucian in that he's just naturally going to be deferential to the government. Which is I guess why these new dynasties tend to come from some pretty darn humble backgrounds. I'm guessing the issue with Li is he isn't the undisputed main power at the time the way the Zeng clique would be. He was still a subordinate to Zeng Guofan. And I'm not sure he's that kind of personality. Heck, I may be over villainizing Zeng Guoquan.

Classic case of best man for the job not wanting it I suppose. It is a ton of extra responsibility to start your own dynasty and create your own institutions rather than be the "reformer" within. Not that the Qing really seemed to reward this fealty much. While Li got off well, the Zeng brothers were basically all harassed in various ways until they died. Poor Zeng Guofan just wanted to go home and read books. The Qing were the absolute worst. Almost nothing redeeming about them.