Burton K Wheeler
The G.O.A.T. That Can't Be Got
- Location
- Tr'ondëk
On another website, I was engaged in a discussion of what would happen if W. Bush had been popular (at least as popular as 2016 Obama) at the time of the 2016 election.
A couple things would be necessary for this.
1) No Iraq disaster. This one is really tough. Basically the only way to make this happen given the administration's stance and the general public's attitude is Saddam's full and enthusiastic cooperation with U.N. weapons inspection, or more likely stepping down. Either way, we'll assume there's no U.S. troops in Iraq and that the Great War of Terror is confined to Afghanistan and security cooperation/regional stability like Djibouti and the Philippines.
2) The Great Crash being bumped back one or two financial quarters. Probably the best way to do this is delay the peak of the bubble a little bit, maybe with a slightly longer recession of 2001/2002?
Katrina would still hurt the administration badly but not be a mortal wound like it was in the wake of Iraq spiraling out of control.
So, consequences. Democrats would pick up seats in 2006 but not control of Congress. It seems very likely that a more popular Bush and stronger Republican establishment would be able to pass comprehensive immigration reform in 2007. Remember that Bush won 44% of the Hispanic vote in 2004, and that a Republican who could pick up half of the Hispanic vote would cruise to victory even without Ohio (NM, NV, CO, and FL would probably be fairly safe R states).
We talked a bit about likely candidates and the dynamic of the election, but I'll see what people here think before sharing my ideas.
Also, the Republican President with Republican Congress in 2008 will catch the Great Recession full in the teeth, and the Democratic Tea Party of 2010, formed from a defeated and demoralized Democratic establishment, would be a hell of a thing to see.
A couple things would be necessary for this.
1) No Iraq disaster. This one is really tough. Basically the only way to make this happen given the administration's stance and the general public's attitude is Saddam's full and enthusiastic cooperation with U.N. weapons inspection, or more likely stepping down. Either way, we'll assume there's no U.S. troops in Iraq and that the Great War of Terror is confined to Afghanistan and security cooperation/regional stability like Djibouti and the Philippines.
2) The Great Crash being bumped back one or two financial quarters. Probably the best way to do this is delay the peak of the bubble a little bit, maybe with a slightly longer recession of 2001/2002?
Katrina would still hurt the administration badly but not be a mortal wound like it was in the wake of Iraq spiraling out of control.
So, consequences. Democrats would pick up seats in 2006 but not control of Congress. It seems very likely that a more popular Bush and stronger Republican establishment would be able to pass comprehensive immigration reform in 2007. Remember that Bush won 44% of the Hispanic vote in 2004, and that a Republican who could pick up half of the Hispanic vote would cruise to victory even without Ohio (NM, NV, CO, and FL would probably be fairly safe R states).
We talked a bit about likely candidates and the dynamic of the election, but I'll see what people here think before sharing my ideas.
Also, the Republican President with Republican Congress in 2008 will catch the Great Recession full in the teeth, and the Democratic Tea Party of 2010, formed from a defeated and demoralized Democratic establishment, would be a hell of a thing to see.