raharris1973
Well-known member
What if Russia won the Russo-Japanese War? What consequences might flow from that?
Part 1. - How Russia wins/"wins" the war: Like in the real world, the war opens up in February 1904 with the Japanese surprise attack on the Russian naval base at Port Arthur.
The differences start in that while the initial Japanese attack is effective at damaging, disabling and sinking multiple Russian ships, the sinking of the flagship Petropavlovsk is slower, and this allows Russian Admiral Makarov to escape the sinking ship rather than go down with it after assisting with the rescue of as many crew members as he can. He competently commands the remaining, surviving inferior Russian Pacific fleet vessels in the port, using a fleet-in-being strategy, significantly impeding Imperial Japanese Army maritime resupply to the area right around the port d drawing out the siege of Port Arthur while awaiting the arrival of help from outside.
The second difference is that during the siege of Port Arthur, Japanese siege operations on land are even slower and less optimal than in real life, and General Kodama never makes the key recommendation to field force commander General Nogi to focus on seizing 203 Metre Hill, leading to continued frittering away of the Japanese besieging force on indecisive operations around the port.
Fear of Makarov's 1st Pacific Squadron being able to sortie (to attack Japanese transports, bombard Japanese forces ashore, escape) forces the Imperial Japanese Navy Combined Fleet to keep a constant guard around Port Arthur in the East China Sea/Yellow Sea, preventing the fleet from getting the four months of rest and refit it got historically between the surrender of Port Arthur in January 1905 and the battle of Tsushima in May 1905.
In this scenario, the Russian Baltic Fleet, renamed the "Second Pacific Squadron", under Admiral Rozhestvensky would be arriving to the China Seas by April-May after final refueling stops in Cam Ranh Bay, French Indochina.
The more exhausted and less nimble Japanese Combined Fleet under Admiral Togo is unable to catch the Rozhestvensky's fleet (or much of it) at the Tsushima Straits, force it to battle, "cross the T" and destroy it, allowing the clear majority of the force to proceed into the Yellow Sea/Gulf of Zhili, very close to Port Arthur and potential junction with Makarov's First Squadron.
About the same time, Russian General Stoessel's garrison is still holding out in the Port Arthur perimeter against General Nogi's besiegers, but Russian General Kuropatkin is riding down the South Manchuria railway via Shenyang/Mukden with a large army of reinforcements.
[Credit for these tactical/operational points of departure goes to users Captain Seafort and Sekhmet_D from AH.com]
The lack of dramatic defeats or military failures so far has prevented isolated strikes and urban and rural unrest from coalescing into anything that could be called a "revolution" so far in 1905, with no notable events called "Bloody Sunday" in January of that year (spawned by demonstrations effected by the impending/just accomplished fall of Port Arthur). Certainly, the Russian people found the boldness and audacity of the Japanese in their initial attack a bit shocking, and their tenacity thereafter troubling and worth a grudging respect, but the Russians remained confident of victory in the end, while remembering the rule that Russia wins, but seldom wins its victories *fast*, so this "Japanese war" is nothing outside the norm or cause for doubt.
While the Japanese Combined Fleet retains the advantage of an interior position of concentration and unified command, the nearby 1st and 2nd Russian Pacific Squadrons they are sandwiched between in the waters around Port Arthur now *outnumber* the Japanese Combined Fleet. Brutal naval melee fighting and gun duels commence as the Russian Squadrons seek a sortie/break-out and relief of Port Arthur while the Japanese Fleet fights to keep the harbor sealed and the enemy fleets divided.
Japanese maneuver and gunnery is generally better, with them getting better exchange ratios. But the ratios are not very uneven, Crews on many of the Russian ships in both squadrons are both professional and deadly, causing significant damages and irrecoverable losses to Japanese ships that the Japanese, already bleeding blood and treasure, can ill afford.
In the midst of this naval gunnery slugfest, the Japanese are unable to keep their blockade airtight, and some small batches of Russian-chartered blockade running vessels are able to run the blockade to get vitally needed supplies to the Russian garrison, a boost to their well-being, and above all, their morale, by May 15th.
Over the last two weeks of May, with massive casualties on both the Japanese and Russian sides, Kuropatkin's forces are able to break through portions of the IJA siege lines and establish a land corridor to Port Arthur, breaking the Japanese siege.
With the siege broken, unacceptable force attrition levels, increased popular questioning of the war effort and war related sacrifices and taxes, and foreign (British and American) creditors running out of willingness to generously extend yet more credit, the Japanese Cabinet reluctantly sues for peace on the basis of the status quo ante bellum.
End result - Japan is is utterly exhausted with nothing to show for it, while the Russians have a big pyschological boost, no revolution, a navy, and a much stronger position in the Far East. The big effect will be on the UK. The China Fleet's battleships probably stay there and the Anglo-Russian Entente doesn't happen, which is going to generate a bloody big flock of butterfflies.[credit goes to Captain Seafort for this description]
After hemming and hawing in negotiations for a few months and making demands, everybody keeps their original territory - Russia keeps all Sakhalin and the Port Arthur leased territory, it keeps its timber concession in Korea -- it *does not* get the demand it advanced for the Kurile islands. Japan keeps the Kuriles, *does not* get the exclusive rights over Korea it demands. Both sides exchange POWs unconditionally. Both sides reluctantly accept that the other side will not be paying the indemnity or damage claims they advanced.
Part 1. - How Russia wins/"wins" the war: Like in the real world, the war opens up in February 1904 with the Japanese surprise attack on the Russian naval base at Port Arthur.
The differences start in that while the initial Japanese attack is effective at damaging, disabling and sinking multiple Russian ships, the sinking of the flagship Petropavlovsk is slower, and this allows Russian Admiral Makarov to escape the sinking ship rather than go down with it after assisting with the rescue of as many crew members as he can. He competently commands the remaining, surviving inferior Russian Pacific fleet vessels in the port, using a fleet-in-being strategy, significantly impeding Imperial Japanese Army maritime resupply to the area right around the port d drawing out the siege of Port Arthur while awaiting the arrival of help from outside.
The second difference is that during the siege of Port Arthur, Japanese siege operations on land are even slower and less optimal than in real life, and General Kodama never makes the key recommendation to field force commander General Nogi to focus on seizing 203 Metre Hill, leading to continued frittering away of the Japanese besieging force on indecisive operations around the port.
Fear of Makarov's 1st Pacific Squadron being able to sortie (to attack Japanese transports, bombard Japanese forces ashore, escape) forces the Imperial Japanese Navy Combined Fleet to keep a constant guard around Port Arthur in the East China Sea/Yellow Sea, preventing the fleet from getting the four months of rest and refit it got historically between the surrender of Port Arthur in January 1905 and the battle of Tsushima in May 1905.
In this scenario, the Russian Baltic Fleet, renamed the "Second Pacific Squadron", under Admiral Rozhestvensky would be arriving to the China Seas by April-May after final refueling stops in Cam Ranh Bay, French Indochina.
The more exhausted and less nimble Japanese Combined Fleet under Admiral Togo is unable to catch the Rozhestvensky's fleet (or much of it) at the Tsushima Straits, force it to battle, "cross the T" and destroy it, allowing the clear majority of the force to proceed into the Yellow Sea/Gulf of Zhili, very close to Port Arthur and potential junction with Makarov's First Squadron.
About the same time, Russian General Stoessel's garrison is still holding out in the Port Arthur perimeter against General Nogi's besiegers, but Russian General Kuropatkin is riding down the South Manchuria railway via Shenyang/Mukden with a large army of reinforcements.
[Credit for these tactical/operational points of departure goes to users Captain Seafort and Sekhmet_D from AH.com]
The lack of dramatic defeats or military failures so far has prevented isolated strikes and urban and rural unrest from coalescing into anything that could be called a "revolution" so far in 1905, with no notable events called "Bloody Sunday" in January of that year (spawned by demonstrations effected by the impending/just accomplished fall of Port Arthur). Certainly, the Russian people found the boldness and audacity of the Japanese in their initial attack a bit shocking, and their tenacity thereafter troubling and worth a grudging respect, but the Russians remained confident of victory in the end, while remembering the rule that Russia wins, but seldom wins its victories *fast*, so this "Japanese war" is nothing outside the norm or cause for doubt.
While the Japanese Combined Fleet retains the advantage of an interior position of concentration and unified command, the nearby 1st and 2nd Russian Pacific Squadrons they are sandwiched between in the waters around Port Arthur now *outnumber* the Japanese Combined Fleet. Brutal naval melee fighting and gun duels commence as the Russian Squadrons seek a sortie/break-out and relief of Port Arthur while the Japanese Fleet fights to keep the harbor sealed and the enemy fleets divided.
Japanese maneuver and gunnery is generally better, with them getting better exchange ratios. But the ratios are not very uneven, Crews on many of the Russian ships in both squadrons are both professional and deadly, causing significant damages and irrecoverable losses to Japanese ships that the Japanese, already bleeding blood and treasure, can ill afford.
In the midst of this naval gunnery slugfest, the Japanese are unable to keep their blockade airtight, and some small batches of Russian-chartered blockade running vessels are able to run the blockade to get vitally needed supplies to the Russian garrison, a boost to their well-being, and above all, their morale, by May 15th.
Over the last two weeks of May, with massive casualties on both the Japanese and Russian sides, Kuropatkin's forces are able to break through portions of the IJA siege lines and establish a land corridor to Port Arthur, breaking the Japanese siege.
With the siege broken, unacceptable force attrition levels, increased popular questioning of the war effort and war related sacrifices and taxes, and foreign (British and American) creditors running out of willingness to generously extend yet more credit, the Japanese Cabinet reluctantly sues for peace on the basis of the status quo ante bellum.
End result - Japan is is utterly exhausted with nothing to show for it, while the Russians have a big pyschological boost, no revolution, a navy, and a much stronger position in the Far East. The big effect will be on the UK. The China Fleet's battleships probably stay there and the Anglo-Russian Entente doesn't happen, which is going to generate a bloody big flock of butterfflies.[credit goes to Captain Seafort for this description]
After hemming and hawing in negotiations for a few months and making demands, everybody keeps their original territory - Russia keeps all Sakhalin and the Port Arthur leased territory, it keeps its timber concession in Korea -- it *does not* get the demand it advanced for the Kurile islands. Japan keeps the Kuriles, *does not* get the exclusive rights over Korea it demands. Both sides exchange POWs unconditionally. Both sides reluctantly accept that the other side will not be paying the indemnity or damage claims they advanced.