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Environmental AH: Steampunk Rome's Global Warming and other crises

Aznavour

Well-known member
Published by SLP
Amongst the many things a good AH author must keep in mind to produce a good work, we can all probably agree that an eye for detail and a talent for world-building are perhaps the most important. Sometimes these twin pillars of good AH writing may manifest in how the author approaches Culture and Arts within his AH, from looking at what Tolstoi might have written in a Russia where Constantine was Tsar or what The Beatles might have done in a post-fascist Britain, to figuring out what kind of cars Ford sells in a world in which the communists are winning and Kalashnikov Kars are the cheapest option available internationally.

But there's also the big picture, and here's where the topic of The Environment comes up. Now, lots of AH just involves affairs developing on a political or socio-economic plane, so whether Kennedy lives longer or Gorbachev is ousted or the UK goes to war with Turkey over Cyprus doesn't affect things on the macro level of having icebergs melt faster and Venice sinking by 1999.

And yet there's some subsets of AH that should take that sort of thing into consideration. The famous For All Time, for instance, does explore this somewhat, if only as window-dressing, and there are mentions of a mini-Nuclear Winter of sorts by the 1970s, with ice forming around Venice after Korea is nuked to oblivion, as well as mentions of events like droughts and starvation, due to all casual way in which atomic bombs are employed in that world, and the way infrastructure is breaking down in that world.

Looking at AH we have in SLP, we can wonder: does the Socialist British Empire that results from Ed Thomas' Fight and Be Right-verse fuck up the environment as much as the IOTL USSR did, maybe even drying up Lake Victoria just like the Soviets did with the Aral Sea? Does the much earlier development of Imperial China in David Wostyn's With Iron and Fire mean that global warming becomes a problem much earlier? And let's not even begin to talk about Nazi Victory TLs, or super-destructive wars like the Anglo/American-Nazi War of Festung Europa, which devastates large swathes of Europe.


So we have two types of AH in which Environmental Disaster should concern us: the Dystopias and the Utopias, or to put it more accurately, the ones in which things "go better", and we have things like "modernization" and "industrialization" on an earlier and grander scale than IOTL.

In one, we have irresponsible regimes either using nuclear weapons willy-nilly, buiding dangerous infrastructure projects like poorly regulated super-Chernobyls, drying the Mediterranean, flooding the Sahara, building a bridge between Alaska and Siberia without considering the possible damage, etc.

But the alternative could be just as dangerous: imagine a world in which Rome harnesses the power of Steam, or any one in which we have an earlier 18th-19th century style industrialization, or one in which China joins the Europeans in the 19th Century, with all that entails. Because, what does that entail? Factories, pollution, extraction of certain natural resources, perhaps more use of coal and earlier use of oil, development of certain industries, chemical industries, plastics, steel, etc. etc. And if we have certain type of developments, we have to consider what happens with demographic development, with agriculture and cattle raising. Does the increase in population mean more livestock, and thus more deforrestation and more dangerous emissions of methane to the atmosphere?


Finally, there is one issue that we're only beginning to understand in the last few years, and that is the problem of Sperm Count Decline.

The results, when they came in, were clear. Not only were sperm counts per milliliter of semen down by more than 50 percent since 1973, but total sperm counts were down by almost 60 percent: We are producing less semen, and that semen has fewer sperm cells in it. This time around, even scientists who had been skeptical of past analyses had to admit that the study was all but unassailable. Jørgensen, in Copenhagen, told me that when he saw the results, he'd said aloud, “No, it cannot be true.” He had expected to see a past decline and then a leveling off. But he couldn't argue when the team ran the numbers again and again. The downward slope was unwavering.


Testosterone levels have also dropped precipitously, with effects beginning in utero and extending into adulthood. One of the most significant markers of an organism's sex is something called anogenital distance (AGD)—the measurement between the anus and the genitals. Male AGD is typically twice the length of female, a much more dramatic difference than height or weight or musculature. Lower testosterone leads to a shorter AGD, and a measurement lower than the median correlates to a man being seven times as likely to be subfertile and gives him a greater likelihood of having undescended testicles, testicular tumors, and a smaller penis. “What you are seeing in a number of systems, other developmental systems, is that the sex differences are shrinking,” Swan told me. Men are producing less sperm. They're also becoming less male.

So what was causing this disruption? To say there is only a single answer might be an overstatement—stress, smoking, and obesity, for example, all depress sperm counts—but there are fewer and fewer critics of the following theory: The industrial revolution happened. And the oil industry happened. And 20th-century chemistry happened. In short, humans started ingesting a whole host of compounds that affected our hormones—including, most crucially, estrogen and testosterone.

When a chemical affects your hormones, it's called an endocrine disruptor. And it turns out that many of the compounds used to make plastic soft and flexible (like phthalates) or to make them harder and stronger (like Bisphenol A, or BPA) are consummate endocrine disruptors. Phthalates and BPA, for example, mimic estrogen in the bloodstream. If you're a man with a lot of phthalates in his system, you'll produce less testosterone and fewer sperm. If exposed to phthalates in utero, a male fetus's reproductive system itself will be altered: He will develop to be less male.



If we follow the article's logic -and the science is not 100% certain on this, to be fair-, a world in which China industrializes in the 19th Century could be one in which Global Sperm Count starts declining in the 1950s or 1930s, and a world in which Rome, by some miracle, has some sort of Steampunk Industrial Revolution, might not see a Roman on the Moon by the 9th Century, but rather Human Extinction by the 7th.

Which is, in itself, a fascinating scenario.
 
Well there is the case of France Fights On, where we (quite happily) screwed and killed Mao Zedong in WWII and got Chiang Kai-Shek as the winner. Hence China in the "free world" and of course the Korean war never happens in the first place.
But when you think about it, without Mao murderous lunacies, and being on the american side, then China economic liftoff might start in the 50's and not the 90's.

End result: with all the coal buried underground, and without the authorian streak of OTL China (that barely managed to contain CO2 emissions... in 2017) then you guess, in the FTL world global warming might get to insane levels pretty fast.

What's worse, a Chiang China might not go for a one-child policy in the 70's, so there might be 2 billion chineses by 2000, most of them aspiring to the American way of life...

Jesus.
 
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Well there is the case of France Fights On, were we killed Mao Zedong in WWII and got Chiang as the winner, hence China in the "free world". But when you think about it, without Mao lunacy, and being on the american side, then china economic liftoff might start in the 50's and not the 90's.

Jiang as Franco is an interesting if dubious concept, not sure at all about everything else you said.
 
Ah yes, you're right. Economic growth has its very own "less-child policy" although it may not be as *efficient* (what an horrible word in this context...) as Deng brutal OTL policy.

how fast did China population grew from 1945 to 1975 ?
 
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A fascinating topic for thought. Its interesting to consider what we might think of as the "pre-industrial" world as having a global environmental impact.

An Ice Core Reveals the Economic Health of the Roman Empire

The linked article uses lead pollution as a proxy for economic activity, but I've seen similar studies before focused upon just how widely dispersed said pollution had been detected. That's before considering things like deforestation and soil erosion from agriculture which make the familiar Mediterranean and North African landscape effectively man-made. Such things would only ramp up in a "steampunk Rome" scenario, and there's no reason to suppose that social reform and ecological awareness would arise simultaneously as they did in the highly localised conditions of 18th-20th century western Europe.

Most classic industrialised Rome scenarios seem assume the application of known steam-turbine technologies, but without the social, scientific, and economic drivers that preceded the OTL British Industrial Revolution. This being so, might the former pre-industrial stasis just be replaced with a semi-industrial society that doesn't quite 'take off', but which just replaces the slave-power of the classical world with lower efficiency steam-power? Innovation might be haphazard and accidental, and result in an equilibrium trap where there is no real incentive for further tech advances.

After several centuries of coal-based industrial development and social stagnation, without genuine technological/scientific innovation, an industrial Rome might well be a desolate poisoned hellhole. And if there is to be a "Fall", the depleted soils and mineral wealth of western Afro-Eurasian will massively stunt the growth of whatever society follows them.
 
A fascinating topic for thought. Its interesting to consider what we might think of as the "pre-industrial" world as having a global environmental impact.

An Ice Core Reveals the Economic Health of the Roman Empire

The linked article uses lead pollution as a proxy for economic activity, but I've seen similar studies before focused upon just how widely dispersed said pollution had been detected. That's before considering things like deforestation and soil erosion from agriculture which make the familiar Mediterranean and North African landscape effectively man-made. Such things would only ramp up in a "steampunk Rome" scenario, and there's no reason to suppose that social reform and ecological awareness would arise simultaneously as they did in the highly localised conditions of 18th-20th century western Europe.

Most classic industrialised Rome scenarios seem assume the application of known steam-turbine technologies, but without the social, scientific, and economic drivers that preceded the OTL British Industrial Revolution. This being so, might the former pre-industrial stasis just be replaced with a semi-industrial society that doesn't quite 'take off', but which just replaces the slave-power of the classical world with lower efficiency steam-power? Innovation might be haphazard and accidental, and result in an equilibrium trap where there is no real incentive for further tech advances.

After several centuries of coal-based industrial development and social stagnation, without genuine technological/scientific innovation, an industrial Rome might well be a desolate poisoned hellhole. And if there is to be a "Fall", the depleted soils and mineral wealth of western Afro-Eurasian will massively stunt the growth of whatever society follows them.
And as it was the Roman Empire resulted in the extinction of stuff like the African Forest Elephant and a fair few other circus favourites. A world where a prosperous Rome goes on for longer results in more extinctions like that.
 
Pretty interesting, it never cease to amaze me, scientists ingenuity to unmask secrets of the past. How could one guess that the romans could cause such extensive led pollution, up to the arctic.
So much for those who assert that pollution would vanish if we returned to an agrarian society. :p
 
I wonder if this is one of many solutions to the Fermi Paradox, as a species gets more industrially advanced, its' fertility rates decline until extinction.

Quite frankly, ever since I read that article a while back, I've been leaning in that direction. No messy nuclear war but just a long slow decline.

As for the OP, you also have to take the flip side into consideration. An earlier global warming could potentially also mean an earlier reaction to mitigating said effects.
 
An interesting idea for a story or a novel is a slice of life of people trying to survive a Post-roman resource-depleted hellscape.

I've had loosely similar story ideas along these lines for a while, though with the setting being what used to be NW Europe in Pangaea Ultima - humanity having gone interstellar millions of years before no longer has much use for a resource depleted gravity well like Earth and those left behind live in a planetary ghost town, trapped in a technological dead end because all the "easy" minerals have gone.

Instead now I'm imagining a more literal "Dark Ages", where the Anglo-Saxon kingdoms are built among the poisoned ruins of industrial Romano-Britain, and the Mercian Black Country gets its name a millennium early.
 
Interesting ideas. Pretty scary when you think about it, but the sad reality. There is actually a place on Earth like this: the island of Nauru. Complete and absolute waste of a territory, and the unfortunate people on it.
 
I've had loosely similar story ideas along these lines for a while, though with the setting being what used to be NW Europe in Pangaea Ultima - humanity having gone interstellar millions of years before no longer has much use for a resource depleted gravity well like Earth and those left behind live in a planetary ghost town, trapped in a technological dead end because all the "easy" minerals have gone.

I like that idea, especially if you add in hundreds of abandoned cities and wandering robots.

Imagine a story set in some small village in the middle of nowhere. There's only a few small families and nobody has ventured out more than a dozen miles in decades, so as far as they're concerned they're pretty much the only people in the world and there's nothing but howling wilderness and overgrown forests around them.

Then one clever and foolish person decides to go exploring...

Instead now I'm imagining a more literal "Dark Ages", where the Anglo-Saxon kingdoms are built among the poisoned ruins of industrial Romano-Britain, and the Mercian Black Country gets its name a millennium early.

Heh, medieval post-apocalypse Mad Max, with steam engines.
 
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