Empress Elizabeth of Russia Lives to 1763

[Jackson Lennock]

What if Empress Elizabeth of Russia had lived to 1763?

OTL after her death in 1762, her son Peter III withdrew from the 7 Year's War. If not for that, Prussia would have done for. Sweden was to get back Swedish Pomerania, Austria to get Silesia and another province of Prussia's, and Russia to get East Prussia (to be swapped with Poland for Courland and Belarus beyond the Disna and Berezina).

Under the third Versailles Treaty (1758), France reduced the subsidy paid to Austria and there were no explicit promises to the French in Europe. This seems untenable for France, and they would have to get something. France under the 1757 Versailles Treaty was to get Chimay, Ostend, Beaumont, Nieuport, Ypres, Furnes and Mons, with the remainder going to the Duke of Parma as a Client of France. The French gains might still occur, but the remainder could remain with Austria. Parma would gain some Italian lands though. Saxony maybe gets Prussia's lands west of the Elbe?

Without a strong Prussia, there would be no country to oppose Austria's effort to swap the Austrian Netherlands for Bavaria in the 1770s.

 

[Ricardolindo]

What if Empress Elizabeth of Russia had lived to 1763?

OTL after her death in 1762, her son Peter III withdrew from the 7 Year's War. If not for that, Prussia would have done for. Sweden was to get back Swedish Pomerania, Austria to get Silesia and another province of Prussia's, and Russia to get East Prussia (to be swapped with Poland for Courland and Belarus beyond the Disna and Berezina).

Under the third Versailles Treaty (1758), France reduced the subsidy paid to Austria and there were no explicit promises to the French in Europe. This seems untenable for France, and they would have to get something. France under the 1757 Versailles Treaty was to get Chimay, Ostend, Beaumont, Nieuport, Ypres, Furnes and Mons, with the remainder going to the Duke of Parma as a Client of France. The French gains might still occur, but the remainder could remain with Austria. Parma would gain some Italian lands though. Saxony maybe gets Prussia's lands west of the Elbe?

Without a strong Prussia, there would be no country to oppose Austria's effort to swap the Austrian Netherlands for Bavaria in the 1770s.

The problem is that Russia was nearing bankruptcy at the time, too.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Generally, I think Europe would look like this by 1770. Saxony gets Prussia west of the Elbe. Swedish Pomerania is expanded. Poland gets East Prussia in exchange for Courland and bits of Belarus. France gets minor border adjustments in the Austrian Netherlands in its favor, plus Prussian Neuchatel. This map also includes the French acquisition of Lorraine (annexed in 1766 OTL) and Corsica (annexed OTL in 1768-1769).




The Question Marks, I think, are Hanover, Julich-Cleves-Mark-Ravensberg, and East Friesland. France will either want Hanover or want Britain to give something big to get it back. Sweden could get Friesland and Bremen (Bremen having been Swedish until 1658).




Showing the prospect of a Swedish Bremen, Lubeck, and Friesland. I left Julich, Cleves, Mark, and Ravensberg in Prussian Blue because I'm not sure what to do with them.

Maybe Austria gets the Rhenish Possessions and France swaps Hanover to Britain in order to get some colonies back.