Egypt gets Gaza at Camp David

[Jackson Lennock]

What if Egypt had gotten Gaza back at Camp David along with the Sinai?

My understanding is that the Egyptians didn't care much about it. The Israelis also tried to broker an exchange - Egypt getting Gaza and Israel keeping Yamit - but Egypt was plainly uninterested. Maybe a return of Gaza for Egypt agreeing that Taba is Israeli? The Egyptians threw a big fuss over Taba OTL so I don't think they'd want to give that up either.

Technically, Gaza is being annexed and not returned since Egypt previously claimed Gaza was an allied Palestinian State (see here and here) under the aegis of the United Arab Republic.

Depending on what Egyptian policy is, it might lighten the congestion in Gaza if the sprawl can extend into North Sinai (Egyptian Rafah and El Arish mainly).

The Israeli settlers who went there OTL probably end up someplace else. Several settlers from Yamit were relocated to Gaza OTL, so they'll end up someplace else too. Maybe the Negev or maybe the Southern West Bank. OTL Sharon pulled out about 9,000 settlers from Gaza.

The Israelis would be able to direct more resources towards governing/occupying/pacifying the West Bank. But Sharon might also be able to dismantle more settlements if that still happens like OTL. The Gaza withdrawal gets a lot of attention, but Sharon dismantled settlements in the northern West Bank as well (Kadim. Ganim, Homesh, and Sa-Nur) in what might have been the first step of a bigger withdrawal from portions of the West Bank (I'm skeptical he'd have withdrawn from everything east of the Wall he built).

Without the Palestinian Civil War or Gaza as a Hamas refuge, the Israeli right wouldn't be able to point at Hamas as an obstacle to peace.

 

[Coiler]

Everything I've heard about Egypt's Gaza policy at Camp David was that they pretended to want it back for political reasons but privately didn't. Assuming that they did take it back for whatever reason....

...I'm not seeing it as being that much better than OTL, sadly. The OTL Sinai is underdeveloped and home to a war that Egypt has conducted in a way as clumsy as it's been brutal. (Whatever the very legitimate issues with the IDF are, Egypt's are a lot worse). I can imagine the flames being fanned by the addition.

 

[Nyvis]

Everything I've heard about Egypt's Gaza policy at Camp David was that they pretended to want it back for political reasons but privately didn't. Assuming that they did take it back for whatever reason....

...I'm not seeing it as being that much better than OTL, sadly. The OTL Sinai is underdeveloped and home to a war that Egypt has conducted in a way as clumsy as it's been brutal. (Whatever the very legitimate issues with the IDF are, Egypt's are a lot worse). I can imagine the flames being fanned by the addition.

I think what this ignores is that all the people in Gaza would be Egyptian citizens, and just free to pack up and leave to better parts of the country.

Which is exactly why Egypt won't do it.

Not that Egypt is inactive on this front even today:

Egypt steps up Gaza role after brokering last year's truce

After years of behind-the-scenes activity in the Gaza Strip, Egypt is going public. Since mediating a cease-fire between Israel and Gaza's ruling Hamas militant group, Egypt has sent crews to clear rubble and is promising to build vast new apartment complexes.

apnews.com

But they'd rather invest in Gaza so that people stay there than annex it and have to make the inhabitants citizens.

Also, I think comparing the conflict in the Sinai to the IDF, routine Israeli bombardment of Gaza and occupation of the west bank is missing the scale and nature of the conflicts.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Everything I've heard about Egypt's Gaza policy at Camp David was that they pretended to want it back for political reasons but privately didn't. Assuming that they did take it back for whatever reason....

...I'm not seeing it as being that much better than OTL, sadly. The OTL Sinai is underdeveloped and home to a war that Egypt has conducted in a way as clumsy as it's been brutal. (Whatever the very legitimate issues with the IDF are, Egypt's are a lot worse). I can imagine the flames being fanned by the addition.

Egypt definitely wouldn't tolerate Palestinians in Gaza launching rockets.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Making them all Egyptian citizens might mean heavy migration to the main cities. But it seems pretty likely that Egypt would impose restrictions, since Egypt does that OTL to the 70,000 to 100,000 Palestinians in Egypt.

Egypt might try to develop Gaza as a tourism center like South Sinai OTL. There'd probably be lucrative construction contracts for developing the region - especially if Gaza's allowed to decongest and have a natural sprawl into North Sinai. Maybe Gaza would be the Israeli Tijuana too.

Gaza's economic growth rate from 1967 to 1982 averaged roughly 9.7 percent a year because of expanded income from work opportunities inside Israel (who benefitted from a large unskilled and semi-skilled workforce). My guess is that under normalization that would still take place, but Gaza's agricultural sector is also stronger because the Israeli settlements and bases aren't taking up a third of Gaza.

 

[lerk]

It'll probably be better off without a blockade and war happening every couple of years. How much better off is anyone's guess but certainly better off. Real question is how this impacts the Israeli Palestinian Conflict since Gaza is the only place where any action against Israel really happens. Maybe butterflies leads to Islamist Egypt or a more aggressive Syria/Lebanon but that's just butterflies and not really something that can be said to be a direct result of Gaza becoming a part of Egypt.

 

[Nyvis]

Making them all Egyptian citizens might mean heavy migration to the main cities. But it seems pretty likely that Egypt would impose restrictions, since Egypt does that OTL to the 70,000 to 100,000 Palestinians in Egypt.

Well yeah, but it does that by not making them citizens. And part of the justification for this is the fig leaf of enabling them to go home one day.

Egypt might try to develop Gaza as a tourism center like South Sinai OTL. There'd probably be lucrative construction contracts for developing the region - especially if Gaza's allowed to decongest and have a natural sprawl into North Sinai. Maybe Gaza would be the Israeli Tijuana too.

Gaza's economic growth rate from 1967 to 1982 averaged roughly 9.7 percent a year because of expanded income from work opportunities inside Israel (who benefitted from a large unskilled and semi-skilled workforce). My guess is that under normalization that would still take place, but Gaza's agricultural sector is also stronger because the Israeli settlements and bases aren't taking up a third of Gaza.

Egyptian migration to Gaza to work in Israel is the hilarious conclusion of this idea.

Not sure there would be much of a focus on agriculture though. Hard to compete with the Nile.

 

[Nyvis]

It'll probably be better off without a blockade and war happening every couple of years. How much better off is anyone's guess but certainly better off. Real question is how this impacts the Israeli Palestinian Conflict since Gaza is the only place where any action against Israel really happens. Maybe butterflies leads to Islamist Egypt or a more aggressive Syria/Lebanon but that's just butterflies and not really something that can be said to be a direct result of Gaza becoming a part of Egypt.

I could see Egypt being involved in mediating a deal for the west bank, since it'll be really interested in avoiding hot conflict that would spread to Gaza.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Well yeah, but it does that by not making them citizens. And part of the justification for this is the fig leaf of enabling them to go home one day.



Egyptian migration to Gaza to work in Israel is the hilarious conclusion of this idea.

Not sure there would be much of a focus on agriculture though. Hard to compete with the Nile.

Agriculture in Gaza would also become harder over time as it becomes drier because of climate change.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Egyptian migration to Gaza to work in Israel is the hilarious conclusion of this idea.

As in Egyptians moving to Gaza so they can get work permits to cross the border into Israel during the day?

I can foresee a situation similar to Northern Mexico - it's one of the richest parts of the country because of the American factories setting shop just across the border and because of the workers who cross the border daily to cities like El Paso, San Diego, etc. Like I said above, Gaza could be an Israeli Tijuana or Juarez.

Not sure there would be much of a focus on agriculture though. Hard to compete with the Nile.

Yes, but it isn't just about competition. It would also be about local production, which has its own economic value.

The Nile also is insufficient for Egypt's needs - Egypt is one of the world's biggest food importers. Packing 100 million people into the farming area of Belgium is a tough thing to do without food imports.

Agriculture in Gaza would also become harder over time as it becomes drier because of climate change.

True. Maybe Gaza/Egypt would get the benefit of Israeli desalination tech here. Or Israeli low-water agriculture tech.

I could see Egypt being involved in mediating a deal for the west bank, since it'll be really interested in avoiding hot conflict that would spread to Gaza.

Potentially.

If Gaza is Egyptian, that takes a lot of the wind out of Hamas's sails and possibly butterflies away the first intifada entirely. Israel gave the Gaza chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood breathing space despite being aware of the role of Islamism in overthrowing the Shah because at the time the Brotherhood was peaceful towards Israel (but not towards Fatah/the PLO) and it was very good at providing social services. Mujama al-Islamiya (the Hamas predecessor org and local Muslim Brotherhood chapter) had clinics, blood banks, day care, medical treatment, meals and youth clubs, social care provision, scholarships and financial aid for young people who wanted to study in Saudi Arabia and the West. They also built a University Islamic University in Gaza (IUG) and built mosques, clubs, schools, and a library in Gaza, besides other social services.

Hamas might remain more tightly tied to Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood organizationally, and Egypt would accordingly try to keep Mujama al-Islamiya/Hamas on a tight leash like OTL.

The First Intifada was kicked off by a car accident between an IDF patrol and a car with Palestinian civilians, killing three Palestinians. Hamas took the lead in the resistance, and it was (partly) the PLO feeling like they were stuck on the sidelines as Hamas took the lead in the Palestinian movement which got Arafat to decide to try for a more moderate approach with the Oslo Accords. Here, there's no Hamas and there is no Gaza occupation to spark the Intifada.


Without having to occupy Gaza, Israel's involvement in Lebanon may differ in some way. In what way in particular, I am not sure. Maybe the extra soldiers mean they capture Arafat, or maybe it doesn't.

I am unsure whether or not handing over Gaza and any resulting effects on the Lebanon War would affect the 1984 Israeli Legislative Election. If the left and center parties do marginally better, they could form a government narrowly and put through a peace deal with Jordan along the lines of the Peres–Hussein London Agreement. On the other hand, if Likud does better Israel might have a right wing government instead of a unity government. A right wing government wouldn't necessarily mean no peace deal (it was a Likud Government that withdrew from Sinai) but they'd be less interested. On the other hand, a united Likud government wouldn't have the OTL issue of Peres trying to negotiate a peace deal as foreign minister while keeping Shamir completely in the dark about its terms.

If Gaza is an economically prosperous area, it's possible that there would be labor migration from the West Bank to Gaza and North Sinai (Egyptian Rafah and el-Arish), which may or may not occur illegally. This would also relieve pressure in Israel to reach a peace settlement.

8,000 settlers who lived in Gaza historically by 2005 would probably end up in the West Bank instead here.

 

[lordroel]

What if Egypt had gotten Gaza back at Camp David along with the Sinai?

The current Sinai is already a hornet nest of anti-Egyptians group, add Gaza to it and you will have a place where a large group of Palestine refuges live added to the mix.