Consequences of an ROC Hainan?

[varyar]

Suppose that the Nationalists, by some stroke of luck and skill, are able to fend off the Communist assault on Hainan. Then Korea happens and the US becomes more active in the region again.

What effects will having a second Nationalist stronghold off the coast have on China and East Asia in general?

One might be tempted to say 'not much' but a difference that doesn't make a difference isn't very interesting.

Will ROC Hainan tip the scales and convince America to let the ROC get more actively involved in Vietnam? (Very unlikely but interesting idea - Hainan is the staging area for an American invasion of North Vietnam in the mid 1960s)

Does this prompt China to ramp up its naval expansion a little earlier in the 1990s? What do you, the readers at home, think?

 

[Von Callay]

It's a much more difficult security situation, isn't it? Big parts of the island would be within artillery range of the mainland.

 

[varyar]

It's a much more difficult security situation, isn't it? Big parts of the island would be within artillery range of the mainland.

You're right - I didn't realize Hainan was so close to the mainland when I first posted. The strait is something like 15-20 miles wide, which definitely presents serious issues. There's not much in the way of other nearby islands for the ROC to use as bases, either. H'm.

 

[Von Callay]

You're right - I didn't realize Hainan was so close to the mainland when I first posted. The strait is something like 15-20 miles wide, which definitely presents serious issues. There's not much in the way of other nearby islands for the ROC to use as bases, either. H'm.

The whole island wouldn't be under the gun, though. If we are assuming the island holds out to the point that it becomes subject to the security guarantee of the US-ROC defense treaty, it becomes more a question of how this affects the development of the island.

 

[Coiler]

Wonder if the US would forward-deploy ground troops (which in the 1950s means nuclear weapons as well) on Hainan, since it's vulnerable in a way that Taiwan itself is not.

 

[varyar]

The whole island wouldn't be under the gun, though. If we are assuming the island holds out to the point that it becomes subject to the security guarantee of the US-ROC defense treaty, it becomes more a question of how this affects the development of the island.

The narrowness of the strait plays both ways, too, although looking at the map it probably favors Beijing over Taipei - the capital of Hainan is on the north coast, while there's no major city on the mainland peninsula opposite. Easy solution - relocate the capital to Sanya on the south coast. Development in general is probably going to favor the south of the island if geography allows.

Wonder if the US would forward-deploy ground troops (which in the 1950s means nuclear weapons as well) on Hainan, since it's vulnerable in a way that Taiwan itself is not.

I can see that being a very loudly debated issue in Congress during the 1950s. I like the idea - it plays into the still-somewhat-farfetched idea of using Hainan to attack North Vietnam. (I'm sure the Chinese and Soviets would be thrilled at even the threat of such a thing.)

 

[rfmcdonald]

Hainan would develop very differently. OTL it was much less developed and populated than ex-Japanese Taiwan, even having been ravaged by the Second World War. The island also had a relatively and absolutely large minority population, the Li, who were pro-CPC.

Hlai people - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Would the ROC be able to keep Hainan?

 

[varyar]

Clearly the ROC will need American boots on the ground to maintain the situation.

(Oh Lord stop me before I invade Vietnam)

 

[RyanF]

(Oh Lord stop me before I invade Vietnam)

Calm down, Lyndon.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Hainan would develop very differently. OTL it was much less developed and populated than ex-Japanese Taiwan, even having been ravaged by the Second World War. The island also had a relatively and absolutely large minority populatii9on, the Li, who were pro-CPC.

Hlai people - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Would the ROC be able to keep Hainan?

They kept Quemoy and Matsu. Thus, I don't see why not. BTW, in 1945, the CCP told its Hainan cell to leave the island but they refused. If they had obeyed, it would have been much easier for the Kuomintang to keep Hainan.

 

[varyar]

The easiest way to keep Hainan in ROC hands is to find a way to delay the Chinese invasion. It was launched in the end of March - if we somehow get them to cancel it, three months later, the Korean War starts and the strategic situation changes dramatically.

 

[Dan1988]

The easiest way to keep Hainan in ROC hands is to find a way to delay the Chinese invasion.

IIRC one of the problems is that the CPC/PLA had a strong support base on Hainan itself, which would cause a perpetual headache for the GMD. Maybe if Hainan kept its SAR status instead of being converted to a province on schedule, and use the island as a way to speed up its development and attractiveness to foreign investment, or if dealt with pre-WWII when it was still part of Guangdong (say, having the GMD get direct control of the province early on during the aftermath of the Northern Expedition and hence use the province in general and Hainan in particular as a model showpiece for Sun Yat-sen's theories in action, especially the economic "minsheng" angle (even if it's just basically Dengism several decades early).