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Confederate offensive to Baltimore without the capture of Order 191?

SpudNutimus

I make maps and things.
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So, to preface this, I know essentially nothing about military tactics. I've spent several years reading up on the economic, social, and political aspects of the Civil War and Reconstruction era to the point that I feel confident writing about its peacetime consequences, but to be frank, I know jack shit about how actual armies in the war functioned. So please be nice about it and let me know if this is really stupid.

For a Confederate victory timeline (once again otherwise pretty much entirely focused on the post-war situation rather than the war itself) with a typical Order 191-based point of divergence where the three Confederate armies under Jackson, McLaws, and Walker successfully take Harper's Ferry and regroup as one, would it make sense for Lee to head east and score his seminal victory against McClellan at Frederick, Maryland, then take Baltimore via the Baltimore and Ohio Railroad as McClellan gets skittish and runs off like he seemed to always do without direction, rather than Lee heading north and winning an earlier version of Gettysburg as is often depicted? The reason I bring this up is because it seems to make more sense as a path to victory politically to me than a campaign into Pennsylvania, but as mentioned I don't really know that much about the tactical aspect of it.

Lee's aim in the Maryland Campaign was to score a single major victory against McClellan after capturing Harper's Ferry in order to leverage European support and demoralize the North, forcing the Union to the negotiating table. Many Order 191 timelines such as the one by Harry Turtledove have the Confederate victory come in Pennsylvania in a symbolic mirror of real-life Gettysburg, particularly through a quick capture of Philadelphia, but Baltimore seems like a much more obvious target city for a major public relations victory in the eyes of Europe to be honest.

Philadelphia was one of the largest and most politically Northern cities in the country at the time, served as a hub for the American abolitionist movement, and was by and large not supportive of the Confederacy. While it would be a stunning prize for Lee's army, its capture would be defined by utter panic and shock among the local population, and likely stiff local resistance. News stories of the fall of Philadelphia in Europe would show panicked residents of the city fleeing, Confederate troops marching past a horrified populace, and in all likelihood some stories of confrontations with civilians and pillaging.

Baltimore, while a bit smaller, was much more sympathetic to the Confederate cause, lying within a border state which especially in its southeast somewhat resented Union rule, with a series of pro-Confederate riots taking place near the start of the war and Abraham Lincoln having to suspend habeas corpus in the state to secure Washington, D.C. from being surrounded by Confederate forces. If you wanted to leverage Europe to publically support you, it'd make a lot of sense to go for a city where you can march your army in to the sound of cheers from the population and write about stones being thrown at the departing Union army.

Additionally, it makes sense as a way to demoralize the North right before the 1862 midterms, not merely riling the North up into a panicked fervor after an abolitionist city's sack, but making a significant number of voters think "why are we doing this anyway" shortly before a new Congress is elected. Washington, D.C. itself would be surrounded (it definitely wouldn't actually fall while the Army of the Potomac still exists, but it might seem like a possibility to the voting public at the time amidst fog of war) right at the same time Britain and France are taking the final steps to recognize the Confederacy, and all the public would see on the front page every week would be a picture of Union soldiers getting tomatoes thrown at them by a random Marylander and a print story about the people of Baltimore whistling Dixie while McClellan flees the scene and Lincoln tries to cover his ass. With a fuck-up that bad and the war seeming lost anyway, a newly elected Democratic Congress might even stop funding the war and put Lincoln's numerous expansions of federal power under a pretty invasive microscope, sealing the deal and making international arbitration a reality.

Is there any reason this wouldn't work that I've forgotten? Once again if so, please tell me politely but bluntly so I can rework this concept.
 
You are correct I think about the propaganda optics of "liberating" Baltimore looking better than "seizing" Philadelphia in a foreign and domestic political sense. However, in a military-geographic sense, I think either city was a long way from attainable. From victory near Antietam and Frederick Maryland, Gettysburg, PA actually *is* a much more plausible scene of a follow-on battle and victory than any of of Philadelphia, Baltimore, or DC, far to the east. Even Harrisburg, PA is. Any move towards Baltimore without, in the interim, scoring multiple lopsided victories against Union forces that decimate the latter but leave CSA forces strong enough to still be hanging north of fortified DC, leaves CSA forces very exposed to getting tired out, cut off and worn down.

Also, yes, losing Maryland is politically disastrous for the Union on the foreign front and for northern political morale. On the other hand, in domestic terms it is somewhat "thermostatic", CSA occupied/liberated Maryland won't be eligible to hold midterm Congressional elections or have any new Representatives or Senators seated, eliminated any margin they could provide to Peace Democrats.
 
You are correct I think about the propaganda optics of "liberating" Baltimore looking better than "seizing" Philadelphia in a foreign and domestic political sense. However, in a military-geographic sense, I think either city was a long way from attainable. From victory near Antietam and Frederick Maryland, Gettysburg, PA actually *is* a much more plausible scene of a follow-on battle and victory than any of of Philadelphia, Baltimore, or DC, far to the east. Even Harrisburg, PA is. Any move towards Baltimore without, in the interim, scoring multiple lopsided victories against Union forces that decimate the latter but leave CSA forces strong enough to still be hanging north of fortified DC, leaves CSA forces very exposed to getting tired out, cut off and worn down.

Also, yes, losing Maryland is politically disastrous for the Union on the foreign front and for northern political morale. On the other hand, in domestic terms it is somewhat "thermostatic", CSA occupied/liberated Maryland won't be eligible to hold midterm Congressional elections or have any new Representatives or Senators seated, eliminated any margin they could provide to Peace Democrats.
Understandable, thank you for the information. Do you think an early fall of Gettysburg (or Harrisburg) in a good-looking engagement on its own could still be enough to leverage European recognition of the Confederacy and/or demoralize the Union into electing a Democratic majority in Congress, or is there something else you would recommend for an Order 191-based timeline's Civil War? Once again I'm not focused on the military aspect of it, I want to explore the political ramifications of an independent Confederacy (namely by having it completely fall apart and collapse within two decades of secession) but in order to do that I need at least some idea of how the war itself goes.
 
Understandable, thank you for the information. Do you think an early fall of Gettysburg (or Harrisburg) in a good-looking engagement on its own could still be enough to leverage European recognition of the Confederacy and/or demoralize the Union into electing a Democratic majority in Congress, or is there something else you would recommend for an Order 191-based timeline's Civil War? Once again I'm not focused on the military aspect of it, I want to explore the political ramifications of an independent Confederacy (namely by having it completely fall apart and collapse within two decades of secession) but in order to do that I need at least some idea of how the war itself goes.

Maybe enough for European recognition.

That in itself is not a guarantee of European physical intervention against the blockade, or on the CSA's side.

It could swing the midterms. That alone doesn't mean the north giving up the war. I don't think Lincoln would give up the war until voted out or driven out of office, so the CSA would have to keep it's string of good luck going for the remainder of his Presidency. But it could be done.
 
You are correct I think about the propaganda optics of "liberating" Baltimore looking better than "seizing" Philadelphia in a foreign and domestic political sense. However, in a military-geographic sense, I think either city was a long way from attainable. From victory near Antietam and Frederick Maryland, Gettysburg, PA actually *is* a much more plausible scene of a follow-on battle and victory than any of of Philadelphia, Baltimore, or DC, far to the east. Even Harrisburg, PA is. Any move towards Baltimore without, in the interim, scoring multiple lopsided victories against Union forces that decimate the latter but leave CSA forces strong enough to still be hanging north of fortified DC, leaves CSA forces very exposed to getting tired out, cut off and worn down.

Also, yes, losing Maryland is politically disastrous for the Union on the foreign front and for northern political morale. On the other hand, in domestic terms it is somewhat "thermostatic", CSA occupied/liberated Maryland won't be eligible to hold midterm Congressional elections or have any new Representatives or Senators seated, eliminated any margin they could provide to Peace Democrats.
Looking at a map, from Frederick the CSA can go either north via Gettysburg to Harrisburg or east to Baltimore. In either situation the army's on an exposed limb, so actually succeeding at either involves getting at least one or two of said lopsided victories - Baltimore is larger but has the more CSA-friendly population, so the actual city-taking is probably equal in difficulty in either case. Certainly don't see Philadelphia being taken without either of the former two being taken first, if only cos I'm unsure how crossable the Susquehanna is below Harrisburg, and any CSA army that tried to thread that needle seems dangerously exposed for little obvious gain. Interested to know why you think pushing into PA is more plausible for a late '62 offensive than an eastern hook into Maryland proper though.

In either case, the CSA have taken a Union state capital, which is a nice propaganda coup, but although Harrisburg is a major junction (and was in fact the original objective of the Maryland campaign apparently) in a non-border state, Baltimore's probably the bigger deal for getting foreign recognition.
 
Looking at a map, from Frederick the CSA can go either north via Gettysburg to Harrisburg or east to Baltimore. In either situation the army's on an exposed limb, so actually succeeding at either involves getting at least one or two of said lopsided victories - Baltimore is larger but has the more CSA-friendly population, so the actual city-taking is probably equal in difficulty in either case. Certainly don't see Philadelphia being taken without either of the former two being taken first, if only cos I'm unsure how crossable the Susquehanna is below Harrisburg, and any CSA army that tried to thread that needle seems dangerously exposed for little obvious gain. Interested to know why you think pushing into PA is more plausible for a late '62 offensive than an eastern hook into Maryland proper though.

In either case, the CSA have taken a Union state capital, which is a nice propaganda coup, but although Harrisburg is a major junction (and was in fact the original objective of the Maryland campaign apparently) in a non-border state, Baltimore's probably the bigger deal for getting foreign recognition.


I take back what I say on Harrisburg, it is further than I thought.

I was mostly thinking in terms of comparative distances.

Gettysburg is only 35 miles away from Frederick Maryland. Baltimore is 51 miles away, closer to urban terrain with more garrisons.
 
Do the Confederates necessarily do better without their orders getting captured?

I know its an odd thing to suggest but McClellan royally botched the OTL campaign even knowing what the CSA was doing because he just kept delaying and wasting time so by the time the main battle began the Confederates had concentrated again. Without the orders McClellan would probably be as cautious as usual and try and fight defensively letting Lee attack targets at will and then there would be a battle somewhere that either the Confederates are still separated due to overconfidence or concentrated, either way its hard to see the Union losing a major army over it though even if they win they won't exploit the victory.

Its one of those PODs that I'm not sure makes much of a difference because their expected effect was fairly contained OTL. Its probably easier to have the Union not completely fuck the chance of learning the enemy battle plan and dispositions and thus destroy a part of its army in detail.
 
Also, yes, losing Maryland is politically disastrous for the Union on the foreign front and for northern political morale. On the other hand, in domestic terms it is somewhat "thermostatic", CSA occupied/liberated Maryland won't be eligible to hold midterm Congressional elections or have any new Representatives or Senators seated, eliminated any margin they could provide to Peace Democrats.
In either case, the CSA have taken a Union state capital, which is a nice propaganda coup, but although Harrisburg is a major junction (and was in fact the original objective of the Maryland campaign apparently) in a non-border state, Baltimore's probably the bigger deal for getting foreign recognition.
Wait... Baltimore wasn't the capital of Maryland, Annapolis was.
 
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