The obvious frontrunner for the 2024 Democratic nomination, former Vice President Julian Castro spent much of the interim between President Clinton’s defeat in 2020 and his campaign announcement in 2023 touring the country and cementing the impression that he alone was the party’s best hope of unseating President Ducey and reclaiming the White House. Still relatively young, Hispanic, and having quickly thrown his weight behind a swath of progressive policies popular amongst the party base, Castro’s whole campaign apparatus had based itself around the not-so-subtle notion that the former VP was the second coming of Barack Obama. The only problem was that Castro, thanks in part to his four-year stint as Hillary Clinton’s sidelined and often ignored understudy, was largely viewed as anathema by much of the growing progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
It was no secret that Castro’s role as Vice President had been more poetry than prose. Pundits, along with much of the establishment power within the party, had correctly believed Castro’s selection in 2020 was an olive branch, a move to make the Clinton campaign appear more youthful and dynamic, and avoid the stigma of having yet another grey-haired white man on the ticket. Images of Tim Kaine, Evan Bayh, and Tom Vilsack did little to muster enthusiasm with a party that allowed Bernie Sanders to so publicly embarrass the former Secretary of State through his string of impressive victories in the 2016 primary campaign. At least with Castro the party could legitimately fight back against Marco Rubio’s charge that the Democrats had taken Latino’s in Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico for granted. But once sworn-in, the newly minted Vice President of the United States found himself reduced to being a Hubert Humphrey rather than a Walter Mondale or Joe Biden. Clinton relied on Chief of Staff John Podesta, and later his successor Tom Vilsack, as he de facto number two. With a career in politics that included a stint as San Antonio Mayor and less than three years as HUD Secretary, Castro’s Washington connections simply didn’t run deep enough for Clintonworld’s liking, and many within the President’s inner circle were increasingly dismissive of the VP once they took office. Podesta had even been rumored to have told Schumer that he thought Castro’s ambitions outweighed his talent, and that the party was unlikely to nominate him in the even he sought the nomination in 2024. “He’s a Quayle, not a Mondale” was a common expression. Much as had happened to Joe Biden in 2011, internal White House documents revealed that discussions had taken place, toying with the idea of dropping Castro from the ticket come 2020 in favor of someone like former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick or Attorney General Tom Perez. But, as in Biden’s case, the potential damage of dropping the VP, especially one like Castro, presented far too great a risk, and could raise questions over whether Clinton was second guessing her decision, which could open a whole can of worms that insiders preferred to keep close.
But as it turned out, keeping Castro on the ticket did little to help Clinton secure her re-election. Dismissive of progressives, suspicious of young voters, and arrogant towards blue collar white voters that had been crucial to Obama’s winning coalition and unwilling to seriously tackle the scandals orchestrated by her staff, the feeling of most Democratic insiders following Clinton’s loss was “Well that sucked, but I expected as much”. Sure, many were sad to see America’s first female President concede to yet another boring white guy, but after eight years under the first African American President and the ensuing racial backlash by the Tea Party, they considered themselves lucky that they got a woman in the Oval Office in the first place. That’s where Castro saw himself come in. According to those within the VP’s small inner circle, electing a Latino as President was the logical next step, and Castro, as the highest-ranking elected Latino American in the country’s history, was the only candidate who could make that a reality. Since the 1990s the Democrats had won the White House in five of the last eight elections, six if you counted Gore’s popular vote win in 2000. Democrats saw 2016 as a confirmation that their party had finally supplemented the Republicans as America’s natural governing party, and that 2020 was a mere fluke in the system. Voters had grown tired of Clinton, that was understandable if not outright empathetic, but believed they would eventually swing back to the Democrats after four years of regressive Republican rule.
For all the clamor and hope for an alternative frontrunner to jump into the race, the establishment was left with little choice than backing former Vice President Castro. President Ducey enjoyed fairly stable approvals for much of his first four years, and a lot of big names weren’t interested in spending millions, if not billions, of dollars running around the country just to lose in the fall. Roy Cooper had passed on a bid, as did Virginia’s Tim Kaine, who like many Democrats believed the party should avoid nominating another white person for at least a few election cycles. The name on most Democrat’s wish list, Speaker of the House Cedric Richmond of Louisiana, was equally disinterested in applying for a gig that he viewed as less influential than the one he had. That left Castro, who was more appealing to the establishment than the gaggle of socialists, self-help gurus, and also rans that had jumped into the race. Zephyr Teachout and her team hoped that a second run for the nomination would finally catch fire without an incumbent president in the race. Tulsi Gabbard had dreams of making America great again. Somehow. Steve Bullock, the former Governor of Montana, hoped that his mixture of pro-second amendment and pro-healthcare liberalism would be enough to persuade the establishment to back him instead of Castro. Mark Cuban, the billionaire entrepreneur, decided to take a page out of Donald Trump’s playbook, actually make it successful, and buy himself the presidency. He had the money for it, after all. Keith Ellison, the former DNC Chair hopeful-turned Minnesota Attorney General, was everything that Republicans had accused Barack Obama of being; a Muslim socialist. With the blessings of an aging Bernie Sanders and much of the Vermont firebrand’s campaign machinery, it soon became apparent that the 2024 Democratic primary would become a redux of 2016, complete with matching, if reluctant, political heirs to the Clinton and Sander’s dynasties. The song and dance that emerged in the following months was all too familiar to primary voters. Castro was the out-of-touch establishment candidate who, like Clinton, would play it safe at a time when voters were yearning for something more radical. Ellison was the socialist going nowhere, unable to win, unable to connect with Black or Latino voters, and was prepared to use the Democratic Party as the vehicle for his revolution. Rinse and repeat. The only notable moment of levity throughout the pre-2024 campaign was the brief debate joke where Mark Cuban spoke about how unlikely a “Cuban-Castro” ticket was. “Some people might get the wrong idea,” said Cuban, especially voters in Florida.
Everyone knew that Vice President Castro was going to lose in Iowa. After only narrowly losing in 2016, so close that he may have actually won it, Bernie Sanders and his cohorts had spent the following years making sure any such dirty tricks wouldn’t happen again. Ellison had the boots on the ground, the campaign offices filled with volunteers, thousands attending his rallies, and enough small donor money to keep his campaign alive and well into the actual convention itself. Fighting with Steve Bullock for second place, the strategy keeping the Castro campaign alive, and their candidate sane, was Nevada and South Carolina. They could take a loss in Iowa. Heck, Castro could even come third. The former VP would face difficulties after a loss in New Hampshire. But as long as Nevada and South Carolina came through, they could mount a strong showing in Super Tuesday and hopefully put the race to rest. With money a precious resource, the Castro campaign quietly pulled out of Iowa and reduced their staff in New Hampshire. Then came the debate in the Granite State. Ellison, when asked whether he believed former President Obama had done enough on healthcare, said no, arguing that Democrats had been too preoccupied by pleasing pharmaceutical special interests and that Obamacare wasn’t nearly enough. Still considered sacrosanct by most of the Democratic Party, Obamacare had been the rallying piece of legislation that for all its imperfections had only become more popular over time with the public at large. Within days of the debate, Ellison’s numbers had crashed back down from their previous high, making a horserace between himself and Castro. On Election Night Ellison, although having narrowly edged Castro in the popular vote, was only able to tie the former VP in terms of overall delegate support. The punditry, who had been searching for ways to minimalize Ellison’s appeal, spun the pyrrhic victory as a devastating blow to the once unstoppable progressive campaign. High voter turnout in Nevada helped deliver Castro his first primary victory, with record turnout amongst Latino voters who according to some analysts appeared suspicious of voting for an Islamic candidate for the nomination. Questions as to whether or not Ellison had a growing problem with Hispanic voters became a centerpiece of the punditry talking points.
Bullock’s campaign up to this point had been a disaster. The cash influx from his second place showing in Iowa had long since disappeared, and his growing irrelevance in what was shaping up to be a two-man race had led to ramped up pressure for the former Montana Governor to wind down his campaign and exit with some dignity. There were talks with the Castro campaign about getting vetted for the VP slot, but those close to Bullock weren’t confident that the former Vice President would ignore the growing political wisdom that the ticket would need a woman if the Democrats were to have any hope of victory in November. But at least the two campaigns were talking, which was more than could be said about the Ellison campaign. Ellison viewed Bullock in much the same way as his supporters; a relic from a bygone era, the Jim Webb or Martin O’Malley of the 2024 primary race. Talking with him would be a waste of time, and besides, Ellison campaign insiders were confident that the longer Bullock remained in the race, the better chance that their guy could emerge with a plurality of the vote and a majority of the delegates. But Bullock’s down-to-earth, cowboy persona had endeared him to many in the South, and the campaign had poured all of its remaining resources into winning the race. If the Black vote could be evenly split between the two-frontrunner’s, Bullock’s support amongst White voters would be enough for him to narrowly come up the middle. Knock Castro off his groove and prove that Ellison was a flawed co-frontrunner. Winning South Carolina would keep them alive going into Super Tuesday. Which is exactly what happened. But rather than get the kind of comeback kid attention that Bullock had banked on, the media portrayed the win as exactly what it was. A fluke, an anomaly that didn’t reflect Bullock’s poor numbers amongst African Americans and progressives. The media was still caught up in the fight between Castro and Ellison. That was where the views and clicks were coming from, not another White guy governor who reminded people of the Republicans.
Splitting much of Super Tuesday between themselves, Vice President Castro would win the larger contests, like Texas, Virginia, North Carolina, and California, whilst Ellison would win increasingly progressive strongholds like Colorado, his native Minnesota, and Vermont. For all the talk of revolutions, conspiracy theories that the establishment was once again rigging the rules against their guy, that some external force had conspired against Ellison and his supporters despite their overwhelming crowd size and Twitter presence, Castro had the momentum. Throughout the Ellison social media sphere, talk of rigged voting, tampered voting machines, and hateful attacks against Castro and his team had begun to become a problem for their candidate. Ellison prided himself on being the gentle, thoughtful progressive, and the level of vitriol that he was seeing online disturbed him. Sure, he didn’t like what he saw as Clinton’s heated up leftovers getting the nomination, but there was by no means a grand conspiracy against him. For some reason, Democratic primary voters, especially Black and Latino voters, didn’t want a revolution to tear the system down. They liked the system and wanted to fix it from within. But his supporters wouldn’t relent. Some campaign operatives, like Nina Turner, began openly talking about running an independent, progressive-minded campaign. If the Democrats weren’t going to listen to the enthusiasm and crowds coming out to see Ellison, they didn’t deserve to take them for granted. If Ellison didn’t run, Turner was more than happy to start talking about her own potential appeal to voters. Bernie wasn’t interested in getting involved. As far as the Vermont Senator was concerned it wasn’t his fight. It was a shitshow. After routing his progressive competitor across Arizona, Florida, and Illinois, it became clear that Castro had the nomination all but wrapped up. But, following in the steps of Bernie Sanders eight years earlier, Keith Ellison would not drop out. “I want more time to talk about the issues” he’d tell former President Obama, who had been forced to act as a kind of go-between the Ellison campaign and Democratic leadership. Clinton certainly wasn’t going to do it. Privately, everyone in Ellisonville knew that Ohio was going to be his last stand. Nobody could win the presidency without it, unless you were Hillary Clinton or Jack Kennedy. But as the returns began flooding in, the numbers just weren’t there to justify going on. It was over. Once again, after the dream was so close to realization, it was snatched away just as quickly. Ellison phoned Castro, explained his plan to drop out the following day, and set in place the mechanics for both men to appear together as part of a “unity rally” ahead of the convention.
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