Callan's Graphics and Things

[Callan]

 

[TheKennedyMachine]

The Trampy Movies are so good

 

[Callan]

Forgive me Father for what I am about to do

The Thick of It - Season 5 - 2022

Prime Minister The Rt Hon. Emma Messinger MP - Olivia Poulet
Leader of the Opposition The Rt. Hon. Clement Storin MP - Steve Coogan
Secretary of State for Industry Energy, and Trade (DIET) - The Rt. Hon. Abishola “Abi” Colwyn - Lolly Adefope
Former DoSaC Secretary Peter Mannion - Roger Allam
Former Political operator Malcolm Tucker - Peter Capaldi
Director of Communications to the Leader of the Opposition Ollie Reader - Chris Addison
Deputy Permanent Secretary to the Cabinet Office Annabeth Taggart - Doon Mackichan
Shadow Secretary of State for Industry Energy, and Trade (DIET) The Rt. Hon. Nicola Derby (formerly Murray) MP - Rebecca Front
Government Special Advisor Ryan Silkin - Simon Bird
Government Special Advisor Avneet Sharma - Ritu Arya
Shadow Chancellor Jack Mountfitchet - Charlotte Ritchie
Opposition Special Advisor Asher Mohammed - Pappa Essidu

 

[Callan]

Here’s a hot take based on the greater butterflies of Humphrey winning the 1968 Presidential election: in this ATL, the British Labour Party could be in power until the early 1980s.

Labour winning in 1970 is basically a coin toss that's easily butterflied by Events. It was widely believed that Wilson might have won had the election been called a couple of weeks later (and thus minimised the damage caused by unfavourable economic stats). And at points during this campaign, it looked like the Labour Party might win a second landslide.

Harold Wilson planned to retire after eight years of prime minister. In this ATL, Roy Jenkins is not only the frontrunner but one of Labour's heroes. His tenure as Chancellor is credited for restoring the party's credibility and saving the party from certain defeat (as it was right up until Labour unexpectedly lost the 1970 election OTL), and afterwards he is reshuffled to the Foreign Office and successfully negotiates entry into the EEC.

And Nixon’s economic mismanagement and the potential butterflying of the Yom Kippur War and resultant oil crisis, the global economy is likely more stable than OTL. And the Tories would be an absolute shambles after a third consecutive defeat. Heath would be gone, Enoch Powell would be in the ascendant and there are likely to be enourmous splits over the European question and Rhodesia. And if Labour wins a second landslide in 1970, it would be be very hard to swing all the way back within one election cycle.

So would the Tories actually win a ‘74/75 election in this scenario?


1964-1972: Harold Wilson (Labour)
1964: Alec Douglas-Home (Conservative), Jo Grimond (Liberal)
1966: Edward Heath (Conservative), Jo Grimond (Liberal)
1970: Edward Heath (Conservative), Jeremy Thorpe (Liberal)
1972-1977: Roy Jenkins (Labour)
1974: Geoffrey Rippon (Conservative), Jo Grimond (Liberal)
1977-1979: John Dunwoody (Labour)
1979-: Julian Amery (Conservative)
1979: John Dunwoody (Labour)

 

[Time Enough]

Here’s a hot take based on the greater butterflies of Humphrey winning the 1968 Presidential election: in this ATL, the British Labour Party could be in power until the early 1980s.

That’s a very interesting point, the Labour Party dominating the 70s is not something that I’ve seen before but it makes sense, particularly if they head in a more Centre direction under folks like Jenkins.

1979-: Julian Amery (Conservative)
1979: John Dunwoody (Labour)

Well this is cursed, I also get the sense that the Liberals are now dead which I don’t think would help British politics and probably leads to some Centre Populist organisation emerging in the 90s.

 

[Callan]

1969-1973: Hubert Humphrey / Edmund Muskie (Democratic)
1968: Richard Nixon / Spiro Agnew (Republican), George Wallace / Curtis LeMay (American Independent)
1972: George Wallace / Robert Taft Jr. (Republican), Jacob Javits / Pete McCloskey (Liberal)
1973-1974: Edmund Muskie / vacant (Democratic)
1974-1977: Edmund Muskie / Milton Shapp (Democratic)
1977-: Edward Gurney / Charles Percy (Republican)
1976: Edmund Muskie / Milton Shapp (Democratic)

1969-1973: Hubert Humphrey / Edmund Muskie (Democratic)
1968: Richard Nixon / Spiro Agnew (Republican), George Wallace / Curtis LeMay (American Independent)
1972: George Wallace / Robert Taft Jr. (Republican), Jacob Javits / Pete McCloskey (Liberal)
1973-1974: Edmund Muskie / vacant (Democratic)
1974-1977: Edmund Muskie / Milton Shapp (Democratic)
1977-1981: Edward Gurney / George Bush (Republican)
1976: Edmund Muskie / Milton Shapp (Democratic), Tom McCall / Ralph Nader (Third Force)
1981-1989: Jerry Brown / Terry Sanford (Democratic)
1980: Edward Gurney / George Bush (Republican), Tom McCall / Charles Evers (Third Force)
1984: George Bush / Phil Crane (Republican)
1989-1997: William J. Bennett / Anne Gorsuch (Republican)
1988: Birch Bayh / Charlie Wilson (Democratic)
1992: Jim Mattox / Harvey Gantt (Democratic)
1997-2005: John Kerry / Henry Cisneros (Democratic)
1996: Anne Gorsuch / Johnny Ikason (Republican)
2000: Larry McDonald / Dan Quayle (Republican)

 

[Callan]

Major World Leaders, January 1994:

Australia: Jeff Kennett (Liberal)
Brazil: Paulo Maluf (Progress)
Canada: John Crosbie (Liberal)
China: Hu Qili (CCP)
France: Charles Pasqua (UDR)
Germany: Ibrahim Böhme (SPD)
India: Indira Gandhi (INC)
Iran: Abolhassan Banisadr (People's)
Israel: David Levy (National List)
Italy: Giorgio Napolitano (Democratic Left)
Japan: Tsutomu Hata (LDP)
Mexico: Manuel Clouthier (PAN)
Russia: Yelena Bonner (Independent - Glasnost)
South Africa: Winnie Mandela (ANC)
United Kingdom: Ian Lang (Conservative)
United States: William J. Bennett (Republican)

 

[Time Enough]

Japan: Tsutomu Hata (LDP)

This feels like the aftermath of Japan having a rougher 70s and 80s and after a Centre Left Reformist government taking control in the late 80s, the LDP decide to support having a young reformist be there guy.

Also he wears a cowboy hat:

United Kingdom: Ian Lang (Conservative)

I feel like this relates to your other list with Roy Jenkins taking over in the last 60s etc. I do always think that Ian Lang is underutilised and he works well as the consummate professional face of Not-Thatcherism.

 

[Callan]

I feel like this relates to your other list with Roy Jenkins taking over in the last 60s etc. I do always think that Ian Lang is underutilised and he works well as the consummate professional face of Not-Thatcherism.

Yeah, that's what I was going for.

This list, that last USA list and this list I did a while back are all supposed to be in the same ATL.

 

[Steve Brinson]

India: Indira Gandhi (INC)

Oh no

 

[Meppo]

France: Charles Pasqua (UDR)

United States: William J. Bennett (Republican)

oh no

Russia: Yelena Bonner (Independent - Glasnost)

Oh man I sure hope she is not succeeded by a random general from Saratov

 

[Callan]

From the same TL:

Chancellors of Federal Republic of Germany (1969-1985):

1969-1976: Willy Brandt (SPD)
1976-1977: Helmut Schmidt (SPD)
1977-1981: Helmut Kohl (CDU)
1981-1985: Helmut Schmidt (SPD)


De-facto leaders of the German Democratic Republic, 1969-1985:

1950-1972: Walter Ulbricht (SED)
1972-1982: Heinz Hoffmann (SED)
1982-1983: Erich Mielke (SED)
1983-1983: Hans Modrow (SED)
1983-1985: Wolfgang Schnur (New Democracy)


Chancellors of Federal Republic of Germany, 1985-2000:

1985-1989: Helmut Schmidt (SPD)
1989-1993: Wolfgang Schäuble (CSU)
1993-: Ibrahim Böhme (SPD)

 

[Time Enough]

1983-1985: Wolfgang Schnur (New Democracy)

1993-: Ibrahim Böhme (SPD)

I forgot to ask but I guess this is either a world where these two weren’t ‘got’ by the Stasi or the Stasi were better at hiding there tracks etc.

Also Böhme has mild Wałęsa about him if that makes sense, which could be interesting as German Chancellor.

 

[Callan]

I forgot to ask but I guess this is either a world where these two weren’t ‘got’ by the Stasi or the Stasi were better at hiding there tracks etc.

Also Böhme has mild Wałęsa about him if that makes sense, which could be interesting as German Chancellor.

The collapse of East Germany and the Eastern Bloc is a bit slower and more violent - as implied by the brief tenure of Erich Meike - and thus the Stasi successfully shred a lot more documents.

 

[Callan]

Retcon of a retcon of a retcon.

1964-1967: George Brown (Labour)
1964: Alec Douglas-Home (Conservative), Jo Grimond (Liberal)
1967-1971: Anthony Greenwood (Labour)
1969: Reginald Maudling (Conservative), Jo Grimond (Liberal)
1971-1978: Geoffrey Rippon (Conservative)
1971: Anthony Greenwood (Labour), Jeremy Thorpe (Liberal)
1974 (Leading National Government with Liberals and Independent Labour): Anthony Greenwood (Labour), William Wolfe (Scottish National), Emyln Hooson (Liberal)
1978-1982: Barbara Castle (Labour)
1978: Geoffrey Rippon (Conservative leading National Coalition), William Wolfe (Scottish National), Enoch Powell (Unionist Coupon)
1982-1992: Peter Walker (Conservative)
1982 (with Liberals and Independent Nats): Barbara Castle (Labour), William Wolfe (Scottish National), Enoch Powell (Unionist Coupon)
1986 (with Liberals and Independent Nats): John Dunwoody (Labour), Willie McRae (Scottish National), Enoch Powell (Unionist Alliance)
1991 (with Liberals and Independent Nats): Jack Straw (Labour), Ian Paisley (Unionist Alliance), Willie McRae (Scottish National)
1992-1997: Ian Lang (Conservative)
1995: Jack Straw (Labour), Margaret Ewing (Scottish National), Ian Paisley (New Unionist), Sara Parkin (Green)
1997-1999: Lynda Chalker (Conservative)
1999-2011: Paddy Ashdown (Labour)
1999: Lynda Chalker (Conservative), George Reid (Scottish National), Ian Paisley (New Unionist), Sara Parkin (Green)
2003: Michael Fallon (Conservative), Ian Paisley (New Unionist), Jenny Jones (Green), Ivan Cooper (Independent Republican), George Reid (Scottish National)
2007: John Bercow (Conservative), Jenny Jones (Green), Peter Davies (New Unionist), Anne Lorne Gillies (Scottish National), Ivan Cooper (Independent Republican)
2011-2015: Shahid Malik (Labour)
2012 (Coalition with Greens): Tim Collins (Conservative), Rupert Read (Green), Peter Davies (New Unionist), Anne Lorne Gillies (Scottish National), Ivan Cooper (Independent Republican)
2015-2022: Tom Newton Dunn (Conservative)
2015: Shahid Malik (Labour), Anne Lorne Gilles (Scottish National), Peter Davies (New Unionist), Rupert Read (Green), Mary McAleese (Independent Republican)
2019: Sarah Smith (Labour), Philip Davies (New Unionist), Aaron Bastani (Green), Patrick Grady (Scottish National), Mary McAleese (Independent Republican)
2022-: Sarah Smith (Labour)
2022: Tom Newton Dunn (Conservative), Philip Davies (New Unionist), Vix Lowthion (Green), Patrick Grady (Scottish National), Michelle O'Neil (Republican Alliance)


Prime Ministers of the United Kingdom, 1963-

1963-1964: Alec Douglas-Home (Conservative)
1964-1968: George Brown (Labour)
1968-1971: Anthony Greenwood (Labour)
1971-1978: Geoffrey Rippon (Conservative / Conservative leading National Government)
1978-1982: Barbara Castle (Labour)
1982-1992: Peter Walker (Conservative)
1992-1997: Ian Lang (Conservative)
1997-1999: Lynda Chalker (Conservative)
1999-2011: Paddy Ashdown (Labour)
2011-2015: Shahid Malik (Labour)
2015-2022: Tom Newton Dunn (Conservative)
2022-: Sarah Smith (Labour)


Leaders of the Opposition, 1963-

1963-1964: George Brown (Labour)
1964-1965: Alec Douglas-Home (Conservative)
1965-1970: Reginald Maudling (Conservative)
1970-1971: Geoffrey Rippon (Conservative)
1971-1975: Anthony Greenwood (Labour)
1975-1978: Barbara Castle (Labour)
1978-1979: Geoffrey Rippon (Conservative)
1979-1982: Peter Walker (Conservative)
1982-1984: Barbara Castle (Labour)
1984-1987: John Dunwoody (Labour)
1987-1995: Jack Straw (Labour)
1995-1999: Paddy Ashdown (Labour)
1999-2001: Lynda Chalker (Conservative)
2001-2003: Michael Fallon (Conservative)
2003-2006: Francis Maude (Conservative)
2006-2011: John Bercow (Conservative)
2011-2012: Tim Collins (Conservative)
2012-2013: Annabel Goldie (Conservative)
2013-2015: Tom Newton Dunn (Conservative)
2015: John Denham (Labour)
2015-2018: Matt Carter (Labour)
2018-2022: Sarah Smith (Labour)
2022: Mel Stride (Conservative)
2022-: Priti Patel (Conservative)

 

[Callan]

The elections to the newly reconstituted Russian State Duma were held in October 1984, one month after the first Russian Presidential election that had seen the election of former dissident Yelena Bonner. She had ran as an independent, supported by a wide array of civic and former dissident organizations, which organized into the "Sakarov Bloc" for the purposes of the Duma elections. The political parties and alliances participating in the election were all ideologically and organizationally loose groupings - with a majority of the Duma officially elected as independents - and the election was polarized around whether the participating parties and individual candidates would support or oppose President Bonner and her agenda.

500 seats were up for election. The electoral system was parallel voting, with 300 were elected via single-member constituencies, while the remaining 200 by a nationwide list system.

"Sakharov Bloc" - 370

"Democratic" Independents - 204​

Democratic Russia - 109​

Women of Russia - 32​

Farmer & Labour - 22​

The largest coherent political organization supporting Bonner was Democratic Russia, an alliance of dissident trade unions and liberals which won constituencies largely in urban areas. Women of Russia, an alliance of womens' groups dissatisfied with the indifference of other parties and candidates to womens' issues, emerged relatively late into the campaign, and many of its candidates gave differing answers as to whether they would support Bonner. This was also the case for the Agrarian Farmer & Labour Party, although relatively few Duma members from either party opposed Bonner and her nomination for Prime Minister.


"Opposition" Independents - 89
Communist Party of Russia - 41

The “Opposition” was dominated independents of all ideological positions. Ultranationalists, conservatives, a few liberals and leftists who refused to join the presidential majority; they had little in common beyond their opposition to Bonner. The only coherently organized opposition party at the time of the election was the Communist Party of Russia, the unofficial successor of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, whose activities had been de-facto suspended and banned by the Russian Soviet government six months before. Having won only 23% in the presidential election two months before, the Communists’ main consolation was the ability to hold the post of Leader of the Opposition in the Duma due to being the largest recognized party, although Yegor Ligachyov did not last long in the position.

The tallies for the 1984-1989 Duma are imprecise, as over the course of this Duma the majority of independents in both the Presidential Majority and the opposition joined new political parties and alliances, and there were dozens of defections between parties and between the government and opposition.

 

[Callan]

1966-1980: B.J. Vorster (National)
1980-1986: Connie Molder (National)
1985-1992: Andries Treurnicht (National)[1]
1992: Danie Schutte (National)
1992-1994: Pik Botha / Oliver Tambo / Marrack Goulding (National/ANC/United Nations Taskforce) [2]
1994-2010: Winnie Mandela (ANC)[3]
2010-2011: Cheryl Carous (ANC)[4]
2011-2016: Mosiuoa Lekota (ANC)
2016-2021: Bantu Holomisa (ANC)
2021-: Lindiwe Sisulu (ANC)

[1] Extreme hardliner. Led the Apartheid State through the majority of the 1986-1992 civil war. His assassination in 1992 led to the de-facto end of the conflict.
[2] Power-Sharing government, partially enforced by a UN peacekeeping force, which established a new constitution.
[3] The Iron Lady of South Africa, Mandela's government by the late 2000s was heavily criticized for authoritarianism and democratic backsliding. Was forced out in 2010 following a wave of anti-corruption protests and alleged irregularities in the 2009 general election.
[4] Interim President.

 

[Callan]

1963-1970: Terence O’Neil (Ulster Unionist)
1970-1974: Brian Faulkner (Ulster Unionist)
1974-1976: Robert Carr [Direct Rule]
1976-1980: Brian Faulkner (Ulster Unionist)

Deputy 1976-1979: Gerry Fitt (New Democratic)​

Deputy 1979-1980: Austin Currie (New Democratic)​

1980-1982: David Owen [Direct Rule]
1982-1983: Hugh Fraser [Direct Rule]
1983-1987: Leslie Morrell (Ulster Unionist)

Deputy: Austin Currie (New Democratic)​

1987-1989: John Wakeham [Direct Rule]
1989-1990: Leslie Morrell (Ulster Unionist)

Deputy: Austin Currie (New Democratic)​

1990-1993: Lynda Chalker [Direct Rule]
1993-1993: Leslie Morrell (Ulster Unionist)

Deputy: Dennis Haughey (New Democratic)​

1993-1996: Brian Mawhinney (Ulster Unionist)

Deputy: Denis Haughey (New Democratic)​

1996-1999: Francis Maude [Direct Rule]
1999: Kevin Barron [Direct Rule]
1999-2007: Brian Mawhinney (Ulster Unionist)

Deputy 1999-2006: Mary McAleese (New Democratic)​

Deputy 2006-2007: Ruth Kelly (New Democratic)​

2007-2009: Michael McGimpsey (Ulster Unionist)

Deputy: Ruth Kelly (New Democratic)​

2009-2017: Daphne Trimble (Ulster Unionist)

Deputy: Ruth Kelly (New Democratic)​

2017-2018: David Campbell (Ulster Unionist)

Deputy: Ruth Kelly (New Democratic)​

2018-2020: Ed Davey [Direct Rule]
2020-: Arlene Foster (Ulster Unionist)

Deputy: Eoin Ó Broin (New Democratic)​

 

[Time Enough]

Gerry Fitt (New Democratic)

This is a fun Alt-SDLP party name. This addition of Ruth Kelly is a fun Alternate Northern Irish politician who I forgot is NI.

What would the other NI political parties be may I ask?

 

[Callan]

This is a fun Alt-SDLP party name. This addition of Ruth Kelly is a fun Alternate Northern Irish politician who I forgot is NI.

What would the other NI political parties be may I ask?

The Alliance is still around, though relatively marginal. The anti power-sharing Unionist forces eventually coalesced into the New Unionists. The party of the "Dissident" Republicans has changed in form several times, but in the 2020 Assembly elections they ran under an electoral alliance named "Republican Unity". Recent advances by the New Unionists and Republican Unity have cost the UUP-NDP coalition their majority, which caused the Executive to collapse in 2018.

Westminster elections are a different dynamic, with frequent informal pacts and alliances. The Northern Ireland Labour Party stands candidates, who take the Labour whip, and since 1994 some Ulster Unionist MPs take the Conservative whip as well. The New Unionists also run candidates in the United Kingdom. After Ian Paisley retired from the leadership in the mid-2000s, the party's Northern Irish MPs and MLAs have become much more independent and sectional from their colleagues in Great Britain, and the Northern Irish often explicitly described as a party within a party. Since 1999 the New Democrats and the Republicans not formally stood candidates in Westminster elections, instead supporting the Alliance of Independent Republicans, an electoral bloc of republican MPs. This bloc is however very loose; it has been described as more of a "coupon", with multiple AIR candidates sometimes standing against each other and the NDP and Republicans frequently endorsing opponents of official AIR candidates.