ASEAN's fared pretty well already IOTL, all things considered; with a total area of 4,522,518 km2 and an estimated total population of about 668 million, it has some of the fastest growing economies in the world, maintains a global network of alliances and dialogue partners, and is considered by many as a global powerhouse, the central union for cooperation in Asia-Pacific, and a prominent and influential organization Involved in numerous international affairs, it hosts diplomatic missions throughout the world, with the organization's success having become the driving force of some of the largest trade blocs in history, including APEC and RCEP. But what do you think would be the best case for ASEAN? And what PODs would be needed for a realistic best-case scenario?
For instance, Sri Lanka was initially invited to join ASEAN as its 6th founding member on 8 August 1967, but opted instead to maintain its commitment to a "non-aligned" status; only reviewing its position due to global economic changes in the 1980s, and even then, choosing to forgo ASEAN membership to become a founding member of SAARC instead in 1985. In an ATL where Sri Lanka was a founding member of ASEAN (and where Bangladesh, upon whose proposal SAARC was established IOTL, was brought into the fold as an ASEAN member), could SAARC itself potentially be butterflied away altogether, with its members IOTL joining and expanding ASEAN instead ITTL? Could closer co-operation, and greater integration, potentially improve ASEAN's prospects (as in the case of the EU, with its member states pooling their sovereignty in certain areas, and forming collaborative institutions such as a Parliament, a court, a single currency and a foreign service to become a supranational union in much the same manner as as the EU has)?
And in 1990 IOTL, Malaysia proposed the creation of an 'East Asia Economic Caucus', composing the then-members of ASEAN and the People's Republic of China, Japan, and South Korea, with the intention of counterbalancing the growing influence of the United States in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and in the Asian region as a whole, only for this proposal to fall through due to heavy opposition from the United States and Japan, and be dialed back to the 'ASEAN Plus Three' in 1997. Its successor, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), finally came to fruition and took effect on the 1st January 2022; with its 15 member countries accounting for about 30% of the world's population (2.2 billion people) and 30% of global GDP ($29.7 trillion), making it the largest trade bloc in history, expected to eliminate about 90% of the tariffs on imports between its signatories within 20 years of coming into force, and establish common rules for e-commerce, trade, and intellectual property. Could a greater drive towards expansionism by ASEAN, at an earlier stage, have seen it effectively filling the RCEP's role over 3 decades earlier (potentially also butterflying away the Japanese asset price bubble's collapse and the 'Lost Decades' in the process)?
For instance, Sri Lanka was initially invited to join ASEAN as its 6th founding member on 8 August 1967, but opted instead to maintain its commitment to a "non-aligned" status; only reviewing its position due to global economic changes in the 1980s, and even then, choosing to forgo ASEAN membership to become a founding member of SAARC instead in 1985. In an ATL where Sri Lanka was a founding member of ASEAN (and where Bangladesh, upon whose proposal SAARC was established IOTL, was brought into the fold as an ASEAN member), could SAARC itself potentially be butterflied away altogether, with its members IOTL joining and expanding ASEAN instead ITTL? Could closer co-operation, and greater integration, potentially improve ASEAN's prospects (as in the case of the EU, with its member states pooling their sovereignty in certain areas, and forming collaborative institutions such as a Parliament, a court, a single currency and a foreign service to become a supranational union in much the same manner as as the EU has)?
And in 1990 IOTL, Malaysia proposed the creation of an 'East Asia Economic Caucus', composing the then-members of ASEAN and the People's Republic of China, Japan, and South Korea, with the intention of counterbalancing the growing influence of the United States in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and in the Asian region as a whole, only for this proposal to fall through due to heavy opposition from the United States and Japan, and be dialed back to the 'ASEAN Plus Three' in 1997. Its successor, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), finally came to fruition and took effect on the 1st January 2022; with its 15 member countries accounting for about 30% of the world's population (2.2 billion people) and 30% of global GDP ($29.7 trillion), making it the largest trade bloc in history, expected to eliminate about 90% of the tariffs on imports between its signatories within 20 years of coming into force, and establish common rules for e-commerce, trade, and intellectual property. Could a greater drive towards expansionism by ASEAN, at an earlier stage, have seen it effectively filling the RCEP's role over 3 decades earlier (potentially also butterflying away the Japanese asset price bubble's collapse and the 'Lost Decades' in the process)?