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An Alternate History of the Roman Empire: The Rise of Julian

Even in OTL, Arianism had several 'near misses' in the mid-later C4th for securing a long-term patron as Emperor and so being able to fill up major Church sees with its adherents. I've highlighted Constantius II in my timeline, as Emperor of the East in 340 - 361 (337 to 361 in OTL) and of the West in 353 - 361; in reality Valens backed them in the East in 364 to 378 so if he had not been killed at Adrianople that would have continued and the ultra-Catholic, persecuting Theodosius would not have been made Emperor of the East and clamped down on the Arians.

Similarly, in the West after Valentinian (Valens' elder brother) died suddenly while shouting in a rage at German tribal envoys in a meeting on the Danube in 375 his widow Justina - the Arian ex-wife of the late rebel and emperor Magnentius - was regent for their son Valentinian II , aged 4, in the 'central' portion of the Empire (Italy, N Africa, the upper Danube) in 375 to 387. She at least tried to maintain a 'level playing field' in religion and give the Arians free access to their own churches and some bishoprics, and was constantly under threat from angry Catholic clerics led by Bishop Ambrose of Milan, the current Imperial residence - who resorted to stirring up angry Catholic mobs and banning the Imperial Family from services at his cathedral. Had the govt that Justina led not been driven out of Italy by the Western usurper Magnus Maximus, a commander from Britain later famed in Welsh legend, in 387 this situation could have continued and the Arians had either a pro-Arian emperor or at least a division of the spoils of patronage with the Catholics longer-term; in reality once Theodosius had retaken Italy in 388 he took it over for himself and made sure that the Catholics ran all the Church sees there, backed by Ambrose. (Valentinian II, by then aged 17, was sent off to govern Gaul and the Rhineland and died mysteriously at Vienne in the Rhone valley in 392, by suicide or murder in his palace.) Had the dynasty of Valentinian and Valens lasted in West or East, the religious situation would have looked a lot different into the C5th; but neither the Catholics nor the Arians seem to have been interested in coming to an amicable theological compromise but hurled insults of 'heretic' at each other for decade after decade.
 
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