SpudNutimus
I make maps and things.
- Pronouns
- he/him
Many of us know the tropes of wild Confederate expansion into the Antilles found in a large number of Confederate victory timelines, ranging from the semi-plausible idea of a purchase or filibuster of one or two major islands, to the outright ASB ramblings of the Golden Circle people both in their own time period and in retrospect. In particular, Cuba is the most often-discussed of these islands for fairly obvious reasons. It's directly across from the Confederate state of Florida, held by the relatively decaying Spanish colonial empire as opposed to Britain or France, continued to legally practice slavery into the 1870s, and was often discussed throughout the 19th century as a potential American state in real life both before and after the Civil War.
That said, there are major problems with it. It's by far the largest island in the Caribbean and as such would require very large investments in local infrastructure and political control, most likely having to be admitted to the Confederacy as a full state rather than a territory in order to court local elites. It experienced near-continual unrest from local pro-independence groups and abolitionists throughout its history under Spanish rule, notably the Ten Years' War fram 1868-1878, right within the timeframe of a likely Confederate annexation. Finally, there's the simple fact that it would take more energy to seize in the first place in any fashion than most other Caribbean islands; a potential filibuster would be much bloodier and drawn out in Cuba compared to smaller nearby islands, and a purchase of the island would just plain cost more, money which a fledgling Confederacy with already strained international economic support might simply not have.
What other Caribbean locations could be likely Confederate points of interest in the event that Cuba is deemed too costly or otherwise doesn't work out? The Confederacy would still likely want to expand into the region, the possibility is often discussed for a reason after all, and as time goes on they'll likely become increasingly desperate for new locations to expand a dwindlingly profitable slave economy to in the absence of possible Western expansion most likely blocked by the Union.
Some of the options I've considered:
1. Puerto Rico. If you can't have Cuba, go for the next best thing. It's smaller, likely cheaper, and while it did experience uprisings, significantly less politically rebellious than Cuba. Due to its distance from the Confederacy proper it'd most likely require a purchase from Spain rather than a filibuster, which as mentioned would most likely be negotiated as a smaller, cheaper step down from a purchase of Cuba for a financially strained Confederacy, although even then still in all likelihood quite expensive. There's also the fact that due to its small size the Confederacy could most likely administer it as a territory, rather than a full state as would most likely be required in Cuba, easing political considerations within the Confederacy itself. If this too fails due to either high cost or simply some issue with the Spanish themselves though, then that brings us to the next option.
2. The Danish West Indies. The Danish were, from the 1850s onwards, consistently losing money on the colony and debated the idea of a sale to the United States until they eventually were sold in the early 20th century in our world. Considering that the Confederacy, as mentioned pretty desperate for places to expand the slave economy to in the absence of Western territories, would likely be significantly more interested in the islands than the IRL United States (several attempts to sell the islands to the US throughout the late 1800s fell apart due to American lack of interest, eventually changing their minds during WW1 due to fears of German intelligence operations there), there's a good chance they could end up attempting to purchase the islands if both Cuba and Puerto Rico as options fail due to cost or size. The main problem with this one, though, is that slavery was abolished on the islands in 1848 by the Danish due to the threat of a local revolt. If the Confederates did purchase them with the intent to bring back slavery, they'd likely have to fight significant local unrest to take control first, likely a significant challenge for the small Confederate navy, but ultimately not impossible considering the unorganized nature of a potential local revolt compared to a uniformed Confederate military. Finally, we have the smallest and cheapest, but also likely most realistic, option.
3. Guano islands, particularly Navassa Island. In the event that every attempt at a major territorial purchase fails, I could very well see them still attempting to claim small, uninhabited or nearly uninhabited rocks around the Caribbean for the sake of guano mining, strategic interest, and just plain prestige. I list Navassa Island specifically as the most likely example due to its status as already claimed by the United States before the Civil War, a claim which the Confederacy could very well dredge up under the pretext of having inherited it under whatever independence terms they gained from the Union, although considering the larger size of the Union navy and their existing hold on the island it may prove troublesome to actually take control of. Another place which sticks out in this category is Isla de Mona, a small guano island between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic administered as part of the former by Spain, which I could very well see them purchasing as a consolation prize in the event that a full purchase of Puerto Rico itself fails.
What do y'all think? Any others I may have missed?
That said, there are major problems with it. It's by far the largest island in the Caribbean and as such would require very large investments in local infrastructure and political control, most likely having to be admitted to the Confederacy as a full state rather than a territory in order to court local elites. It experienced near-continual unrest from local pro-independence groups and abolitionists throughout its history under Spanish rule, notably the Ten Years' War fram 1868-1878, right within the timeframe of a likely Confederate annexation. Finally, there's the simple fact that it would take more energy to seize in the first place in any fashion than most other Caribbean islands; a potential filibuster would be much bloodier and drawn out in Cuba compared to smaller nearby islands, and a purchase of the island would just plain cost more, money which a fledgling Confederacy with already strained international economic support might simply not have.
What other Caribbean locations could be likely Confederate points of interest in the event that Cuba is deemed too costly or otherwise doesn't work out? The Confederacy would still likely want to expand into the region, the possibility is often discussed for a reason after all, and as time goes on they'll likely become increasingly desperate for new locations to expand a dwindlingly profitable slave economy to in the absence of possible Western expansion most likely blocked by the Union.
Some of the options I've considered:
1. Puerto Rico. If you can't have Cuba, go for the next best thing. It's smaller, likely cheaper, and while it did experience uprisings, significantly less politically rebellious than Cuba. Due to its distance from the Confederacy proper it'd most likely require a purchase from Spain rather than a filibuster, which as mentioned would most likely be negotiated as a smaller, cheaper step down from a purchase of Cuba for a financially strained Confederacy, although even then still in all likelihood quite expensive. There's also the fact that due to its small size the Confederacy could most likely administer it as a territory, rather than a full state as would most likely be required in Cuba, easing political considerations within the Confederacy itself. If this too fails due to either high cost or simply some issue with the Spanish themselves though, then that brings us to the next option.
2. The Danish West Indies. The Danish were, from the 1850s onwards, consistently losing money on the colony and debated the idea of a sale to the United States until they eventually were sold in the early 20th century in our world. Considering that the Confederacy, as mentioned pretty desperate for places to expand the slave economy to in the absence of Western territories, would likely be significantly more interested in the islands than the IRL United States (several attempts to sell the islands to the US throughout the late 1800s fell apart due to American lack of interest, eventually changing their minds during WW1 due to fears of German intelligence operations there), there's a good chance they could end up attempting to purchase the islands if both Cuba and Puerto Rico as options fail due to cost or size. The main problem with this one, though, is that slavery was abolished on the islands in 1848 by the Danish due to the threat of a local revolt. If the Confederates did purchase them with the intent to bring back slavery, they'd likely have to fight significant local unrest to take control first, likely a significant challenge for the small Confederate navy, but ultimately not impossible considering the unorganized nature of a potential local revolt compared to a uniformed Confederate military. Finally, we have the smallest and cheapest, but also likely most realistic, option.
3. Guano islands, particularly Navassa Island. In the event that every attempt at a major territorial purchase fails, I could very well see them still attempting to claim small, uninhabited or nearly uninhabited rocks around the Caribbean for the sake of guano mining, strategic interest, and just plain prestige. I list Navassa Island specifically as the most likely example due to its status as already claimed by the United States before the Civil War, a claim which the Confederacy could very well dredge up under the pretext of having inherited it under whatever independence terms they gained from the Union, although considering the larger size of the Union navy and their existing hold on the island it may prove troublesome to actually take control of. Another place which sticks out in this category is Isla de Mona, a small guano island between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic administered as part of the former by Spain, which I could very well see them purchasing as a consolation prize in the event that a full purchase of Puerto Rico itself fails.
What do y'all think? Any others I may have missed?
Last edited: