2028 United States presidential election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2028 United States presidential election was the 61st quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. The Republican ticket of New York Governor Mike Lawler and Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders defeated the Democratic ticket of Vice President Kamala Harris and former Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear in a narrow election. Despite winning the electoral vote and thus the presidency, Lawler lost the popular vote, which was won by Harris with a slim plurality. This was the last election where all four major party candidates for president and vice president eventually became their party's presidential nominee until 2048. It was the first such election since 1976. It was the first election since 2016 where the incumbent president was not on the ballot.
Incumbent President Joe Biden was term-limited after defeating his predecessor Donald Trump in two consecutive elections. In the Democratic primaries, Vice President Harris fended off a number of rivals from multiple sects of the party which failed to mount a serious challenge. She became the first African-American woman nominated by a major party, the second woman and second African-American nominated by the Democrats, and the first incumbent vice president to be nominated since Al Gore in 2000. Lawler won a bitterly contested primary against several other candidates, most prominently former South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem. Lawler emerged victorious near the end of the primary season and in doing so, became the first Republican nominee who was not Donald Trump in 16 years.
The 2028 election was largely dominated by concerns over international affairs, particularly with regards to Russia and China. New leadership in those countries marked an increase in tensions with their respective neighbors, Ukraine and Taiwan. In particular, border incidents between paramilitaries violated the terms the Mumbai Outline which ended the Russo-Ukrainian War. In Asia, Chinese military activity in the Taiwan Strait, a North Korean missile test with an estimated range of over 15,000 km, the South Korean political crisis, and the re-militarization of Japan all contributed a perception in the United States of Biden's weakness on hostile actors. Various domestic issues were also subject to debate during the campaign season, in particular gun violence and police brutality after a spate of mass shootings, police murder of civilians, and targeted assassinations of police officers. Lawler attacked Harris as generally weak, as a soft-on-crime liberal and unready to confront international enemies. Harris campaigned on her continuity with the relatively popular Biden administration, economic stability, and necessity to federally legalize abortion rights or to overturn Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization. The ongoing health issues of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas was also a key issue, as the winner of the election would likely nominate his successor, which Lawler went on to do in 2031.
Polling remained narrow from the end of the party conventions to November. In the final week before the election, Lawler had a 2 point average lead as mail voting and early voting began across the nation. On Election Day, Lawler opened up an early lead by winning the key swing state of Georgia, which had been critical to Biden's victory in the previous two elections, as well as North Carolina and Ohio, which Trump had won in all of his campaigns. As the night progressed, states which Democrats needed in all recent presidential elections were declared for Lawler or remained too close to call, indicating a likely Lawler victory. Lawler crossed the 270 electoral vote threshold needed for victory on Friday, November 10, when he was declared the winner of Arizona and its 11 electoral votes. He went on to receive 306 electoral votes, the same total which the previous three election winners had received. Although the Republican Party won the presidency, they lost control of both houses of Congress, resulting in a continuation of divided government which would last throughout the Lawler administration.
Lawler became the first Republican to win Arizona and Georgia since 2016, Virginia and Nevada since 2004, New Hampshire since 2000, Maine statewide since 1988, Oregon since Ronald Reagan's 49 state landslide in 1984, and Minnesota since Richard Nixon's 49 state landslide in 1972. This was the last time a Democrat lost Nebraska's 2nd congressional district until Nebraska's district-based electoral system was abolished. It is considered by many to be the start of the Seventh Party System. Despite losing the popular vote by almost 800,000 votes and half a percent, Lawler won 57% of the electoral vote. In doing so, he became the sixth president and third consecutive Republican president to be elected to office despite losing the popular vote after George W. Bush and Donald Trump, although like Bush he went on win the popular vote in his second term. He was the first governor to become president since George W. Bush in 2000, the eighth New Yorker, and fifth Governor of New York to do so since Franklin D. Roosevelt. He was the first president to have served in the House of Representatives since George H. W. Bush. At age 42, he was the first member of the Millennial generation to become president, the youngest person elected president and to take office to that date (surpassing John F. Kennedy and Theodore Roosevelt respectively). Thus, the oldest person to serve as president was succeeded by the youngest. It was the last election held before the statehood of Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico.
Close states
Margin of victory under 1%
2032 results:
Pres. Mike Lawler (NY)/Vice Pres. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (AR) Republican - 76,089,127 votes / 312 EV ✓
Fmr. Gov. Andy Beshear (KY)/Gov. Peggy Flanagan (MN) Democratic - 74,324,085 votes / 233 EV
Notes from my test thread:
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Incumbent President Joe Biden was term-limited after defeating his predecessor Donald Trump in two consecutive elections. In the Democratic primaries, Vice President Harris fended off a number of rivals from multiple sects of the party which failed to mount a serious challenge. She became the first African-American woman nominated by a major party, the second woman and second African-American nominated by the Democrats, and the first incumbent vice president to be nominated since Al Gore in 2000. Lawler won a bitterly contested primary against several other candidates, most prominently former South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem. Lawler emerged victorious near the end of the primary season and in doing so, became the first Republican nominee who was not Donald Trump in 16 years.
The 2028 election was largely dominated by concerns over international affairs, particularly with regards to Russia and China. New leadership in those countries marked an increase in tensions with their respective neighbors, Ukraine and Taiwan. In particular, border incidents between paramilitaries violated the terms the Mumbai Outline which ended the Russo-Ukrainian War. In Asia, Chinese military activity in the Taiwan Strait, a North Korean missile test with an estimated range of over 15,000 km, the South Korean political crisis, and the re-militarization of Japan all contributed a perception in the United States of Biden's weakness on hostile actors. Various domestic issues were also subject to debate during the campaign season, in particular gun violence and police brutality after a spate of mass shootings, police murder of civilians, and targeted assassinations of police officers. Lawler attacked Harris as generally weak, as a soft-on-crime liberal and unready to confront international enemies. Harris campaigned on her continuity with the relatively popular Biden administration, economic stability, and necessity to federally legalize abortion rights or to overturn Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization. The ongoing health issues of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas was also a key issue, as the winner of the election would likely nominate his successor, which Lawler went on to do in 2031.
Polling remained narrow from the end of the party conventions to November. In the final week before the election, Lawler had a 2 point average lead as mail voting and early voting began across the nation. On Election Day, Lawler opened up an early lead by winning the key swing state of Georgia, which had been critical to Biden's victory in the previous two elections, as well as North Carolina and Ohio, which Trump had won in all of his campaigns. As the night progressed, states which Democrats needed in all recent presidential elections were declared for Lawler or remained too close to call, indicating a likely Lawler victory. Lawler crossed the 270 electoral vote threshold needed for victory on Friday, November 10, when he was declared the winner of Arizona and its 11 electoral votes. He went on to receive 306 electoral votes, the same total which the previous three election winners had received. Although the Republican Party won the presidency, they lost control of both houses of Congress, resulting in a continuation of divided government which would last throughout the Lawler administration.
Lawler became the first Republican to win Arizona and Georgia since 2016, Virginia and Nevada since 2004, New Hampshire since 2000, Maine statewide since 1988, Oregon since Ronald Reagan's 49 state landslide in 1984, and Minnesota since Richard Nixon's 49 state landslide in 1972. This was the last time a Democrat lost Nebraska's 2nd congressional district until Nebraska's district-based electoral system was abolished. It is considered by many to be the start of the Seventh Party System. Despite losing the popular vote by almost 800,000 votes and half a percent, Lawler won 57% of the electoral vote. In doing so, he became the sixth president and third consecutive Republican president to be elected to office despite losing the popular vote after George W. Bush and Donald Trump, although like Bush he went on win the popular vote in his second term. He was the first governor to become president since George W. Bush in 2000, the eighth New Yorker, and fifth Governor of New York to do so since Franklin D. Roosevelt. He was the first president to have served in the House of Representatives since George H. W. Bush. At age 42, he was the first member of the Millennial generation to become president, the youngest person elected president and to take office to that date (surpassing John F. Kennedy and Theodore Roosevelt respectively). Thus, the oldest person to serve as president was succeeded by the youngest. It was the last election held before the statehood of Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico.
Margin of victory under 1%
- Oregon, 0.29%
- Minnesota, 0.33%
- Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, 0.54%
- Arizona, 0.74%
- Virginia, 1.26% (tipping point state)
- Georgia, 1.45%
- Nevada, 1.78%
- North Carolina, 2.01%
- New Hampshire, 2.44%
- Michigan, 2.97%
- Alaska, 3.34%
- Maine statewide, 4.01%
- Texas, 4.80%
- Wisconsin, 5.66%
- Montana, 6.23%
- Pennsylvania, 6.45%
- Iowa, 7.83%
2032 results:
Pres. Mike Lawler (NY)/Vice Pres. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (AR) Republican - 76,089,127 votes / 312 EV ✓
Fmr. Gov. Andy Beshear (KY)/Gov. Peggy Flanagan (MN) Democratic - 74,324,085 votes / 233 EV
Notes from my test thread:
I had no idea those bands (Dead Weather and 3rd Secret) existed tho!
