I buy the idea that the Afghanistan War was almost certain to happen once the planes hit the towers. Set aside whether they were going to happen if Gore was in the Oval Office. The country was reeling, politicians as much as anyone else, and the pressure for dramatic military action beyond a few cruise missile strikes was intense. And, of course, the Taliban refused to hand over Osama and I don't think that would change regardless of who was President.
Iraq? I simply don't believe that without the neoconservative cadre of Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz et al that any administration would have as much internal pressure to put troops in Mesopotamia. It was not a war driven from Langley or the Pentagon.