Bonniecanuck
DIEF WILL BE THE CHIEF AGAIN
- Location
- Formerly Hong Kong, currently London
- Pronouns
- she/her + they/them
Economic miracles have played a major role in shaping the modern world's political and economic institutions, elevating historic economic backwaters like Hong Kong or Taiwan to global prominence in finance and industry, and cementing the smooth recovery of war-ravaged states like Japan and Germany. However, like history, economics does not develop on a linear path, and indeed many of these sudden periods of unprecedented economic growth or development have occurred as a result of circumstance and luck in addition to policy. So what if the money flowed in a few different directions? What are some PODs that could have nipped a budding growth period, or allowed missed opportunities that were instead grounded to take flight?
One such scenario that comes to mind is the possibility of the Philippines being a fifth Asian Tiger as opposed to its current emerging market status, going back to the dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos. Marcos was an extraordinarily nepotistic and kleptocratic dictator even for the standards of the time, evident in his shameless hoarding of the country's wealth for himself and his family and allies - one hardly needs to look further for an example than his wife Imelda's infamous collection of over 1,000 designer and luxury brand shoes. Guinness World Records estimates the total value of the Marcoses' stolen wealth to be somewhere between US$5-10 billion, subsequently bestowing upon the couple the world record of the Greatest Robbery of a Government. That the Filipino economy still grew in spite of this, largely with the help of significant American aid, probably highlights the scope of the legacy left behind by Marcos, and leaves only speculation as to where the Philippines would be without him.
On the other side of the coin, it's very likely Hong Kong and Taiwan wouldn't achieve their economic stature if it weren't for the fall of the Republic of China on the Mainland. The former's utility as a trade and commercial entrepot to the PRC until the 2000s and the latter's development of a burgeoning tech sector backed by USAID were greatly helpful in bringing investments there when they had relatively little beforehand. As much as it can be inferred that strong economic growth would still occur, would a sustained explosive "miracle" be doable with a Republic of China that retained its hold on the Mainland and allowed foreign markets access to the traditional commercial centres like Shanghai rather than Hong Kong or Taipei?
One such scenario that comes to mind is the possibility of the Philippines being a fifth Asian Tiger as opposed to its current emerging market status, going back to the dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos. Marcos was an extraordinarily nepotistic and kleptocratic dictator even for the standards of the time, evident in his shameless hoarding of the country's wealth for himself and his family and allies - one hardly needs to look further for an example than his wife Imelda's infamous collection of over 1,000 designer and luxury brand shoes. Guinness World Records estimates the total value of the Marcoses' stolen wealth to be somewhere between US$5-10 billion, subsequently bestowing upon the couple the world record of the Greatest Robbery of a Government. That the Filipino economy still grew in spite of this, largely with the help of significant American aid, probably highlights the scope of the legacy left behind by Marcos, and leaves only speculation as to where the Philippines would be without him.
On the other side of the coin, it's very likely Hong Kong and Taiwan wouldn't achieve their economic stature if it weren't for the fall of the Republic of China on the Mainland. The former's utility as a trade and commercial entrepot to the PRC until the 2000s and the latter's development of a burgeoning tech sector backed by USAID were greatly helpful in bringing investments there when they had relatively little beforehand. As much as it can be inferred that strong economic growth would still occur, would a sustained explosive "miracle" be doable with a Republic of China that retained its hold on the Mainland and allowed foreign markets access to the traditional commercial centres like Shanghai rather than Hong Kong or Taipei?