AHC: President Leonard Wood, or President Henry Cabot Lodge

[raharris1973]

Here's the challenge: What it says on the tin- President Leonard Wood, or President Henry Cabot Lodge. In 1920, or any other year.

 

[Japhy]

Considering conventions were matters of smoke filled rooms deciding things you can just do this.

 

[raharris1973]

Considering conventions were matters of smoke filled rooms deciding things you can just do this.

Okay, with Henry Cabot Lodge, I'm not sure when his earliest plausible shot might have been, but perhaps the 1890s, because he we proposing serious national legislation by then?

In any case, whether nominated any time from the 1890s through 1920s, I think hallmarks of his policy agenda would be support for US imperial foreign policy overseas and a strong navy and ability to intervene in Asia-Pacific and Latin America, immigration restrictionism, since he seemed by the turn of the 20th century to have a prejudice against the 'new immigration' from southern and Eastern Europe, and, especially in the earlier parts of his national career, an opposition to the disenfranchisement of blacks, as shown by his eponymous Lodge Bill, which would have reduced southern representation in line with the proportion of adults actually enfranchised as voters.

Leonard Wood was not discussed as a Presidential candidate until 1920. His concerns would have been about 100% Americanism, immigration restrictionism, physical fitness, other macho Theodore Roosevelt type stuff, likely would have continued to be more uptight about the Red Scare than Harding was. While Congress wasn't going to keep the purse open for unlimited Navy budgets, which would compel participation in the Washington Naval talks, he may balk at US Treaty commitments to not fortify US positions in the western Pacific like the Philippines and Guam.

 

[History Learner]

Here's the challenge: What it says on the tin- President Leonard Wood, or President Henry Cabot Lodge. In 1920, or any other year.

President Wilson dies in November of 1919, allowing Secretary of State Lansing and his supporters to start their desired conflict with Mexico.

The proximate cause for the conflict lay in the kidnapping saga of William Jenkins, an American consular official, by bandit forces operating in the chaos of Post-Revolution Mexico earlier that year. The unfortunate Jenkins was successfully released from his captors, but then was taken into custody by Mexican authorities, who accused him of being behind his own kidnapping; such only served to further aggravate the Americans at large, who were already upset with the initial failure to protect their diplomatic personnel. This served to further stoke resentments born from a decade of warfare leaking out of Mexico into the United States, but was also compounded by the apparently looming threat of the Carranza Government to nationalize American oil interests. Coming as it did in the panic of the First Red Scare, the threat of nationalizations immediately raised concerns of a creeping Bolshevism in Mexico, which only seemed to be confirmed when the U.S. Congress produced a report allegedly showing Bolshevik (and Pro-German, during WWI) activities within Mexico.

The crisis ultimately reached its decisive point in November, when Secretary of State Robert Lansing sought to issue an ultimatum to force a conflict. According to Never Wars: The US War Plans to Invade the World by Blaine Pardoe, the U.S. Military had first drawn up embryonic plans during the crisis, and these were later refined into War Plan Green later in the 1920s. From these, we know the idea was of a force of around 400,000 U.S. soldiers (Both Army and Marines) to fight the conflict, with a holding action and limited offensives along the existing U.S. border. The main thrust, however, was to come via an amphibious landing action against Veracruz and from there an overland campaign was to be conducted against Mexico City, with the capture of said location to be the main objective. Essentially, it was to be a replay of the earlier conflict in the 1840s.

Lansing was perhaps just a few days away from issuing the ultimatum by late November. It was fully expected that Mexico would refuse the American demands and the U.S. Armed Forces were on high alert with tens of thousands of troops already at the Border; the necessary preparations had been completed. However, just as it appeared war was imminent, the scheme was foiled by President Wilson, who recovered from his stroke just in time and thus was able to begin work on defusing the tensions. The Jenkins Affair was thereafter resolved peacefully and Mexico ultimately backed away from nationalizations of their oil industry until the 1930s.

For more info:

Woodrow Wilson and the Mexican Interventionist Movement of 1919
1919: William Jenkins, Robert Lansing, and the Mexican Interlude
Tempest in a Teapot? The Mexican-United States Intervention Crisis of 1919

Assuming Wilson didn't recover or recovered later, it seems certain the Pro-War Faction in the United States would've forced the issue. With the nation at war once again and the First Red Scare ongoing, Leonard Wood's reputation as a respected General and his Anti-Communist bonafides will probably care him to the GOP nomination as a result. From there, he would likely win in the 1920 election given exhaustion of the Democrats.

 

[raharris1973]

President Wilson dies in November of 1919, allowing Secretary of State Lansing and his supporters to start their desired conflict with Mexico.

The proximate cause for the conflict lay in the kidnapping saga of William Jenkins, an American consular official, by bandit forces operating in the chaos of Post-Revolution Mexico earlier that year. The unfortunate Jenkins was successfully released from his captors, but then was taken into custody by Mexican authorities, who accused him of being behind his own kidnapping; such only served to further aggravate the Americans at large, who were already upset with the initial failure to protect their diplomatic personnel. This served to further stoke resentments born from a decade of warfare leaking out of Mexico into the United States, but was also compounded by the apparently looming threat of the Carranza Government to nationalize American oil interests. Coming as it did in the panic of the First Red Scare, the threat of nationalizations immediately raised concerns of a creeping Bolshevism in Mexico, which only seemed to be confirmed when the U.S. Congress produced a report allegedly showing Bolshevik (and Pro-German, during WWI) activities within Mexico.

The crisis ultimately reached its decisive point in November, when Secretary of State Robert Lansing sought to issue an ultimatum to force a conflict. According to Never Wars: The US War Plans to Invade the World by Blaine Pardoe, the U.S. Military had first drawn up embryonic plans during the crisis, and these were later refined into War Plan Green later in the 1920s. From these, we know the idea was of a force of around 400,000 U.S. soldiers (Both Army and Marines) to fight the conflict, with a holding action and limited offensives along the existing U.S. border. The main thrust, however, was to come via an amphibious landing action against Veracruz and from there an overland campaign was to be conducted against Mexico City, with the capture of said location to be the main objective. Essentially, it was to be a replay of the earlier conflict in the 1840s.

Lansing was perhaps just a few days away from issuing the ultimatum by late November. It was fully expected that Mexico would refuse the American demands and the U.S. Armed Forces were on high alert with tens of thousands of troops already at the Border; the necessary preparations had been completed. However, just as it appeared war was imminent, the scheme was foiled by President Wilson, who recovered from his stroke just in time and thus was able to begin work on defusing the tensions. The Jenkins Affair was thereafter resolved peacefully and Mexico ultimately backed away from nationalizations of their oil industry until the 1930s.

For more info:

Woodrow Wilson and the Mexican Interventionist Movement of 1919
1919: William Jenkins, Robert Lansing, and the Mexican Interlude
Tempest in a Teapot? The Mexican-United States Intervention Crisis of 1919

Assuming Wilson didn't recover or recovered later, it seems certain the Pro-War Faction in the United States would've forced the issue. With the nation at war once again and the First Red Scare ongoing, Leonard Wood's reputation as a respected General and his Anti-Communist bonafides will probably care him to the GOP nomination as a result. From there, he would likely win in the 1920 election given exhaustion of the Democrats.

I'd be interested in what the eventual US-Mexican settlement looks like in this scenario. And what the eventual internal Mexican settlement looks like in this scenario and if anything like a stable PRI regime emerges.

In particular, if the US, like OTL, ends up in a preoccupation with threats from outside the hemisphere once more in the 1930s and 1940s, a resurgent Germany, Italy, and Japan - is Mexico a discretely managed, quiet frontier like it was in OTL between FDR and Cardenas, or is it instead an ongoing running sore because of leftover bitterness from this stupid Mexican-American war kicking off in 1919?

Likewise, how big a deal is the Mexican-American war of 1919 in COMINTERN propaganda of the 1920s and Communist recruitment in Mexico and the Spanish-speaking Americas?

 

[History Learner]

I'd be interested in what the eventual US-Mexican settlement looks like in this scenario. And what the eventual internal Mexican settlement looks like in this scenario and if anything like a stable PRI regime emerges.

In particular, if the US, like OTL, ends up in a preoccupation with threats from outside the hemisphere once more in the 1930s and 1940s, a resurgent Germany, Italy, and Japan - is Mexico a discretely managed, quiet frontier like it was in OTL between FDR and Cardenas, or is it instead an ongoing running sore because of leftover bitterness from this stupid Mexican-American war kicking off in 1919?

Likewise, how big a deal is the Mexican-American war of 1919 in COMINTERN propaganda of the 1920s and Communist recruitment in Mexico and the Spanish-speaking Americas?

The planning during this Crisis was later evolved into what became War Plan Green, which called for the institution of a Pro-American Government in Mexico by force. What exactly that would look like I'm not sure, as we have something like Platt Amendment Cuba or the Commonwealth of the Philippines to give contemporary models. A lot will also depend on the situation when Woods comes into office, as he was an open Imperialist who opposed Philippine independence IOTL. I could see him taking a much more hardline position on the question if it's not yet decided by that point; there were voices calling for territorial aggrandizement that he could adhere to. To quote from "An Enemy Closer to Us than Any European Power": The Impact of Mexico on Texan Public Opinion before World War I by Patrick L. Cox, The Southwestern Historical Quarterly, Jul., 2001, Vol. 105, No. 1 (Jul., 2001), pp. 40-80:

The Wilson administration and the military again blamed the conflict on Villa. Governor Ferguson expressed the feelings of many when he advocated United States intervention in Mexico to "assume control of that unfortunate country." J. S. M. McKamey, a banker in the South Texas community of Gregory concluded, "we ought to take the country over and keep it." As an alternative, McKamey told Congressman McLemore that the United States should "buy a few of the northern states of Mexico" because it would be "cheaper than going to war." The San Antonio Express urged the Mexican government to cooperate with Pershing's force to pursue those who participated in "organized murder, plundering and property destruction."

The mood among Congress as the crisis developed also openly took an aggressive turn, as evidenced by this statement before Congress by Congressman J.W. Taylor of Tennessee:

"If I had my way about it, Uncle Sam would immediately send a company of civil engineers into Mexico, backed by sufficient military forces, with instructions to draw a parallel line to and about 100 miles south of the Rio Grande, and we would...annex this territory as indemnity for past depredations . . and if this reminder should not have the desired effect I would continue to move the line southward until the Mexican government was crowded off [the] North America."

The most likely option, however, seems to be a protectorate status and that U.S. installed Government would define the internal Mexican situation. Going forward on that is open for debate; the U.S. track record on what we today would call COIN was pretty effective at that time as shown by the Banana Wars and Philippine–American War. As far as the COMINTERN, the Civil War in Russia is still raging and they're very dependent on American aid for the 1920s-1930s, so it's doubtful they could really capitalize on it.