Aftermath of a Central Powers victory

[Japhy]

Sorry, I thought continue and resume meant the same thing.

Not a problem. But yeah I mean that they would probably start it up again.

And probably export it more.

 

[Ricardolindo]

I know this thread is focused on the aftermath but, FYI, there is a neglected point of divergence for a Central Powers Victory: Romania not joining the Allies. Read https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-romania-remains-neutral-in-wwi.275324/. Falkenhayn, who was opposed to unlimited submarine warfare, would have kept his job, preventing the US from entering the war. In addition, the Central Powers would have more food and would be able to spend more troops against the Russians and the French. Russia may have left the war earlier than in our timeline.

 

[d32123]

I know this thread is focused on the aftermath but, FYI, there is a neglected point of divergence for a Central Powers Victory: Romania not joining the Allies. Read https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-romania-remains-neutral-in-wwi.275324/. Falkenhayn, who was opposed to unlimited submarine warfare, would keep his job, preventing the US from entering the war.
In addition, the Central Powers would have more food and would be able to spend more troops against the Russians and the French. Russia may have left the war earlier than in our timeline.

Wiking is not exactly an unbiased source when it comes to analyzing the logistics and merits of German military strategy.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Wiking is not exactly an unbiased source when it comes to analyzing the logistics and merits of German military strategy.

Still, he wasn't the only user in that thread to argue for such a scenario.
Regardless, I added more text to my reply. Could you, please, edit the quote?

 

[Japhy]

Wiking is not exactly an unbiased source when it comes to analyzing the logistics and merits of German military strategy.

Not a little.

How much food can Romania provide Germany and A-H would be my big question. If it's that easy then it is a PoD to consider. But I doubt it.

 

[Venocara]

To the end of the war their debts we're to be paid by indemnities which is why they were so harsh to Romania and Russia.

Didn't the French want to do a similar thing only to be restrained by the British and Americans from asking for "too much"?

German Victory against the French, Russians and British of the IOTL war means the world is in a Great Depression within a year or two of the peace. Even in a scenario where only France and Russia are defeated and Britain gets a white peace it's only a matter of buying a short while

For the purposes of discussion, would this still be the case in a scenario in which the British stayed out and the Germans had won by Christmas 1914?

It had many attributes (militarism, an anti-semitic streak, aversion to democracy) that led to the Third Reich.

I couldn't say for sure, but weren't these same attributes were present in several European countries at the time? Would you say that the Kaiser's influence exacerbated these problems?

 

[theev]

I couldn't say for sure, but weren't these same attributes were present in several European countries at the time? Would you say that the Kaiser's influence exacerbated these problems?

Germany definitely had it worse with the militarism and aversion to Democracy. France and Britain aren't really comparable and look comparatively healthy.

 

[Japhy]

Didn't the French want to do a similar thing only to be restrained by the British and Americans from asking for "too much"?

France wanted to use reparations to punish Germany and did. But had financed their war debts during the war.

Germany was going for full on looting.

 

[d32123]

I think, as Japhy outlined earlier, securing an Entente victory would be too important for the US to just sit out the war. Even if there's not a clear cassus belli to enter the war due to no USW, the US is going to do everything it can to help Britain and France win in terms of finances and supplies. And as the stakes get higher and higher, pressure will mount for the US to enter directly anyway.

More importantly, the blockade of Germany will continue regardless, and I doubt Romania alone could supply enough food to solve that even if the Germans could afford to keep buying it.

IMO Germany's best hope of winning after 1914-1915 is a Russian-esque mass mutiny on the Western Front. I don't know enough about the OTL French mutiny or internal French politics at the time to tell you how likely that is but even if it's minute it's definitely more likely than a German military victory at that point.

 

[Japhy]

I think, as Japhy outlined earlier, securing an Entente victory would be too important for the US to just sit out the war. Even if there's not a clear cassus belli to enter the war due to no USW, the US is going to do everything it can to help Britain and France win in terms of finances and supplies. And as the stakes get higher and higher, pressure will mount for the US to enter directly anyway.

I'm honestly not sure its enough to get the US into the war. But the pressure is certainly going to be there.

 

[Ricardolindo]

I think, as Japhy outlined earlier, securing an Entente victory would be too important for the US to just sit out the war. Even if there's not a clear cassus belli to enter the war due to no USW, the US is going to do everything it can to help Britain and France win in terms of finances and supplies. And as the stakes get higher and higher, pressure will mount for the US to enter directly anyway.

More importantly, the blockade of Germany will continue regardless, and I doubt Romania alone could supply enough food to solve that even if the Germans could afford to keep buying it.

IMO Germany's best hope of winning after 1914-1915 is a Russian-esque mass mutiny on the Western Front. I don't know enough about the OTL French mutiny or internal French politics at the time to tell you how likely that is but even if it's minute it's definitely more likely than a German military victory at that point.

The problem with the US entering the war is that most Americans opposed it until the Germans attacked American ships.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Not exactly a ringing endorsement for the Imperials not picking up where they left off.

Not a problem. But yeah I mean that they would probably start it up again.

And probably export it more.

Thing is, the Herero and Namaqua genocide was, as far as we know, not ordered by the German authorities. It was von Trotha's doing. I know the Kaiser approved of it but other German authorities did not, read .

 

[Charles EP M.]

[1] Better in the terms that everyone can agree about, like less lives lost in WW1 and beyond and less destructive wars in the future.

It feels like the only way you're getting this is if Germany wins fast and less plans to plunder can be entrenched. That still won't give you a very stable Europe and Germany will still be a militant nation, but you can at least bodge your way through.

Thing is, the Herero and Namaqua genocide was, as far as we know, not ordered by the German authorities. It was von Trotha's doing. I know the Kaiser approved of it but other German authorities did not

@Gary Oswald had an article on this (contains picture of corpse), and while the Reichstag revolted "it took weeks for the German Reichstag to convince Kaiser Wilhelm II to revoke the extermination order von Trotha had issued". (Von Trotha then rounded them up as slave labour instead, which was 'fine') And the Germans in the are were all down with slaughter:

they had a reasonable man as governor and they sacked him because he was against extermination. The desire for genocide was not that of a small elite who could be removed, but rampant throughout the army, the royal family, the settlers and even the civilians back home, who bought postcards decorated with pictures of dead and dying Herero. And moreover it was a desire felt by people who had lived alongside, and been allied to, the Herero for over a decade.

The crime of this was not an aberration, it was an obvious escalation of standard practice. It happened because the Herero and the Nama had land and the Germans wanted it.

 

[Ricardolindo]

It feels like the only way you're getting this is if Germany wins fast and less plans to plunder can be entrenched. That still won't give you a very stable Europe and Germany will still be a militant nation, but you can at least bodge your way through.




@Gary Oswald had an article on this (contains picture of corpse), and while the Reichstag revolted "it took weeks for the German Reichstag to convince Kaiser Wilhelm II to revoke the extermination order von Trotha had issued". (Von Trotha then rounded them up as slave labour instead, which was 'fine') And the Germans in the are were all down with slaughter:

Thanks for pointing me out to the article, which has a very good discussion of this topic.
Still, the r/AskHistorians thread I linked to takes a different position. It states that not all of von Trotha's soldiers agreed with the genocide but decided to follow his orders.
Regardless of that, once the Herero and Namaqua genocide ended, there, really, wasn't much to genocide anymore. There were virtually no white settlers in Ovamboland, which, IMO, makes a Ovambo genocide very unlikely. Meanwhile, the rest of Namibia, being desert, was very sparsely populated.

 

[Gary Oswald]

The r/AskHistorians thread I linked to takes a different position

The askhistorians answer giver isn't a flaired user so we don't know his qualifications but he certainly represents a mainstream stream of histiography in blaming von trotha.

The argument often just comes down to what is the herero genocide. The extermination order was unambiguously a personal decision by von Trotha that the German government walked back on (though it very much didn't come out of nowhere, von Trotha largely got the job by promising to fight a total war when his predecessor wanted a negotiated peace).

The slave labour and concentration camps equally unambiguously remained active long after von trotha was no longer in the country.

 

[Ricardolindo]

The askhistorians answer giver isn't a flaired user so qe don't know his qualifications but he certainly represents a mainstream stream of histiography in blaming von trotha.

The argument often just comes down to what is the hereo genocide. The extermination order was unambiguously a personal decision by von Trotha that the German government walked back on.

The slave labour and concentration camps equally unambiguously remained active long after von trotha was no longer in the country.

Thank you for your thoughts.
Regardless, could you, please, edit the quote and replace "soldiers" by "orders", as I did? It was a serious typo on my part.

 

[SenatorChickpea]

The 'Von Trotha did it!' argument also smacks, frankly, of the 'Good Tsar/Evil Councillors' line.

Genocides don't happen because of one person. There's huge systematic buildups.

Take Australia: yes, there were particular leaders among the settlers who were directly responsible for particular massacres, or campaigns of slaughter. But the fundamental cause isn't 'this squatter was racist,' it's that the colony existed in the first place.

The Namibian genocide didn't happen because of the German leader, it happened because there were Germans there at all.

 

[Charles EP M.]

The soldiers may not have liked it but they clearly didn't dislike it enough to not do it.

 

[Japhy]

So there's more genocide, there's the plunder of Europe, there's a worldwide economic collapse, you have the entrenchment of Anti-Democratic forces in Germany and a government still centered around the Kaiser.

I definitely feel justified in standing by my belief that a German Victory is bad.

 

[SenatorChickpea]

To say nothing of the coming breakdown of the Haspsburg Empire, which I expect to be much nastier if Germany is in a position to carve it up unchallenged.

I mean, I'm not one of those who think that the Austro-Hungarians were doomed in 1914- I mean, they were obviously doomed in their current form, but I don't think the total collapse of the polity had to happen- but any victory that leaves Germany as the clear winners will take a few years of war, war which will dramatically weaken the empire.

It will not be a good timeline to be Czech.